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  • Só, what is Scantling focused on between now and the .WC? Incremental fixes here and there, consistency, shoring up his weakest event? What does he need to do to get to the podium? I’m guessing it will take closer to 9,000 to win.

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    • Originally posted by ZazaShoya View Post
      Finally Johannes Erm to start a Decathlon (SEC Championships). Don't know what to expect since he's not been competing that much. No LJ (his best event, almost 8m) since Tokyo, nor any HJ, but the throws and technical events (PV, 110H) are quite encouraging. Looking at Garland's form this could be at least decent.
      First Dec of the year for Felix Wolter too.
      So, the form is here, not the foot. As expected his lack of competition in the jumps was due to an ankle issue, he's actually gone through surgery but the results yesterday were quite disastrous considering his abilities : that's 300 points lost in translation (both horizontal and vertical). At least speed is here, would have been a PB in the 100 even with no wind, close to PB 400 and SP.
      He'll need a strong day 2 to get the WC auto-Q but it seems manageable, 8200 is clearly within reach.

      Contrasted day 1 for Wolter with a very weak shot but he's almost on par with his record. 8000 could fall but, yet again, strong second day needed.

      Austin West (Big Ten) and Max Vollmer (PAC-12) on deck today.

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      • Originally posted by ZazaShoya View Post

        So, the form is here, not the foot. As expected his lack of competition in the jumps was due to an ankle issue, he's actually gone through surgery but the results yesterday were quite disastrous considering his abilities : that's 300 points lost in translation (both horizontal and vertical). At least speed is here, would have been a PB in the 100 even with no wind, close to PB 400 and SP.
        He'll need a strong day 2 to get the WC auto-Q but it seems manageable, 8200 is clearly within reach.

        .
        Do you know how the Estonian selection works?

        It seems that with Uibo, Tilga, Oiglane and Erm, Estonia may find itself with more the three qualifiers.

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        • Originally posted by ZazaShoya View Post

          Austin West (Big Ten) and Max Vollmer (PAC-12) on deck today.
          Gery Haasbroak is competing tomorrow in the hope he can use his high potential (8,193) to be the fifth Australian above 8,000 points.

          In the women side Blzevica that should challenge for a medal will try to qualify in Big-12.

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          • Originally posted by olorin View Post

            Do you know how the Estonian selection works?

            It seems that with Uibo, Tilga, Oiglane and Erm, Estonia may find itself with more the three qualifiers.
            I've heard something about an "internal selection" but no clear pathway to my knowledge. There won't be any Trials I reckon since the different schedules collide (Erm's in particular, who's NCAA bound).
            At the moment though only Tilga and Oiglane are qualified, and Tilga has not shown signs of great form. Rosenberg could also be in the mix, being the best ranked of the non-qualified, maybe Lillemets or, very long shot : Hans Christian Hausenberg.

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            • Originally posted by olorin View Post

              Gery Haasbroak is competing tomorrow in the hope he can use his high potential (8,193) to be the fifth Australian above 8,000 points.
              At first I was like wait, fifth all time?! Or fifth this year?

              Turns out that's this year, but not much difference between the current list and all time list as only 7 Aussies have ever gone over 8000 all time. That seems really hard to believe but that's what WA says.

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              • Very late second day in Oxford, not Q for Erm. Actually this result won't help his ranking much either. But at least he's back at it with a decent day 2, especially in the pole vault, enough to have a say in Eugene ... in June.

                Good first day for Haasbroek : 307 points up on his 7395 record and some room to gain on day 2 - mostly PV (4.60 v 5.17 this winter) and maybe 1500 (4.47 v 4.31) but this one seems less likely.
                Very good also for Simulask : 368 points up on his 7433 record. Should he come close to his best throws (≈ 40m DT and 52-53m JT) he could threaten 8000.
                Last but not least Shankar, primarily known as a (high) jumper, who finally has a go at a Decathlon (he started with a Pent, then an Hept ...) and faring more than well on day 1 (4346). Day 2 is of course more challenging, especially for an late comer, but he could get the Indian record (7658).

                Vollmer and West will have a hard time bettering their recent record with these first five performances.

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                • Originally posted by dupontred View Post

                  At first I was like wait, fifth all time?! Or fifth this year?

                  Turns out that's this year, but not much difference between the current list and all time list as only 7 Aussies have ever gone over 8000 all time. That seems really hard to believe but that's what WA says.
                  What is hard to believe?

                  Australia has 9 (not 7) alltime 8k decathletes on the IAAF list for a current population of 25m. The USA has 47 for a current population of 333m.

                  Using those numbers, the ratios are 2.778m people per decathlete for AUS and 7.021m per decathlete for USA.

                  Just how many 8k decathletes should AUS be producing for you not to be surprised?

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                  • Originally posted by ZazaShoya View Post

                    Good first day for Haasbroek : 307 points up on his 7395 record and some room to gain on day 2 - mostly PV (4.60 v 5.17 this winter) and maybe 1500 (4.47 v 4.31) but this one seems less likely.
                    This highlights how inside knowledge is important. From the outside, I thought his last decathlon showed he was injured but here is!

                    I've put his very old PB performaces and scores for the first day beside his current efforts. He's superior in every event and scored over 4k for the first time.

                    If (if!) he has improved relatively the same on his 2nd day and performs to that standard, he projects to somewhere just over 8k. My prediction, however, is 7976 but happy to be proven wrong.

                    PB / Live
                    10.88 888 / 10.77 912
                    7.16m 852 / 7.48 930
                    11.31m 565 / 12.17 617
                    1.87m 687 / 2.05 850
                    49.33 846 / 48.96 863

                    First days 3838/4172 (51.90% of total/??)

                    Second days 3557/3853 (48.10%of total/projected same %)

                    Total 7395/ 8020-8040 (projected)

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                    • Overlooked him but Ryan Talbot (Michigan St) is going for the 8000. PBs for the three remaining events would give him 8028, and I'm circumspect about his 1500m PB which does not relate to his abilities on a 1000m (2.44 or at least 2.49 this winter for 4.53).

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                      • Originally posted by El Toro View Post

                        What is hard to believe?

                        Australia has 9 (not 7) alltime 8k decathletes on the IAAF list for a current population of 25m. The USA has 47 for a current population of 333m.

                        Using those numbers, the ratios are 2.778m people per decathlete for AUS and 7.021m per decathlete for USA.

                        Just how many 8k decathletes should AUS be producing for you not to be surprised?
                        The UK has only 6 from a population of 67m which is 11.167m per decathlete.

                        Meanwhile, Estonia has a population of 1.3m and, if you include those Estonians from Soviet times, must be approaching 20 8k decathletes.

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                        • Originally posted by ZazaShoya View Post
                          Overlooked him but Ryan Talbot (Michigan St) is going for the 8000. PBs for the three remaining events would give him 8028, and I'm circumspect about his 1500m PB which does not relate to his abilities on a 1000m (2.44 or at least 2.49 this winter for 4.53).
                          8064, with 4:44 1500.

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                          • Originally posted by Trickstat View Post

                            The UK has only 6 from a population of 67m which is 11.167m per decathlete.

                            Meanwhile, Estonia has a population of 1.3m and, if you include those Estonians from Soviet times, must be approaching 20 8k decathletes.
                            Well dividing by population is not a particularly good metric in an event that does not get much support even for the top several. The odds are against a pretty good athlete making a couple steps up without much support.

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                            • Originally posted by 26mi235 View Post

                              8064, with 4:44 1500.
                              Indeed a much better time in the final run.
                              The guy's almost coming out of nowhere. Sophomore but no Dec last year (only two unremarkable Heps around 5300), first ever this year (as I reckon after a few researches), 7677 then 8064.
                              That's already 7 collegiate guys over 8000 this year and Simulask and Haasbroek are still on pace. Not to mention McMorris, Spyridonidis or Wolter who could do it in Eugene.

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                              • Haasbroek with a gutsy/painful 1500 to ensure he scored a couple team points. Hamstring injury earlier in the day and he ran 6:32.11 to score 148 points and end up 7th with 7149.

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