WC records

[Atticus]

Always a fun game - which Championships Records can go?

Men
.

100	9.58	Nope
200	19.19	Nope
400	43.18	Nope
800	1:42.34	Probably not
1500	3:27.65	JI is capable, but the pace won’t be there
5000	12:52.79	The pace may be there
10000	26:46.31	Not unless a Ugandan is hungry
Marathon	2:06:54	Depends on weather
110H	12.91	GH!
400H	47.18	Warhorse!
3000St	8:00.43	Nope
High jump	2.41	Nope
Pole vault	6.05	Mondo!
Long jump	8.95	Nope
Triple jump	18.29	Nope
Shot put	22.91	RC!
Discus	70.17	If the wind is right
Hammer	83.63	Nope
Javelin	92.80	Nope
Decathlon	9045	Outside chance
4×100	37.04	Could, but probably won’t
4×400	2:54.29	Ditto

.
Women
.

100	10.70	Possible
200	21.63	Also possible
400	47.99	Nope
800	1:54.68	Posssible
1500	3:51.95	Too tough
5000	14:26.72	If pace is right
10000	30:04.18	Ditto
100H	12.28	Very tough
400H	52.16	Yup!
3000St	8:57.84	Probable wit right pace
Marathon	2:20:57	With right weather
High jump	2.09	Nope
Pole vault	5.01	Possible
Long jump	7.36	Very tough
Triple jump	15.50	Rojas!
Shot put	21.24	Nope
Discus	71.62	Allman with good wind!
Hammer	80.85	Possible
Javelin	71.70	Very tough
Heptathlon	7128	Nope
4×100	41.07	Outside chance
4×400	3:16.71	Too tough

[ATK]

I dont see the womens 4x4 as too tough considering the entire team is returning, and Felix may even be replaced with a faster leg (S. Little or others.)

[Atticus]

How is the womens 4x4 too tough if the entire team is returning, and Felix may even be replaced with a faster leg? (Little or others.)

Each leg would have to run the equivalent of a 49.7 from blocks. Mu and McLaughlin could do it, but to have those two be 'on' and have two more legs like that is - IMO - too much to ask for one given race.

[ATK]

Each leg would have to run the equivalent of a 49.7 from blocks. Mu and McLaughlin could do it, but to have those two be 'on' and have two more legs like that is - IMO - too much to ask for one given race.

I can imagine a team running:
McLaughlin - 50.0 (+0.2 from Tokyo)
Felix or other - 49.5 (-0.2 from Tokyo)
Muhammad - 49.1 (-0.2 from Tokyo)
Mu - 48.1 (+0.2 from Tokyo)

That gets us to a nice 3:16.7 🙂 Don't underestimate that Hayward Magic

[gm]

Gabby Thomas is who you're looking for on that 4x4

[cigar95]

If the old Michael Norman were to reappear, with the physical progression we saw at Mt SAC, the MJ record could get a look.

[Atticus]

I can imagine a team running:
McLaughlin - 50.0 (+0.2 from Tokyo)
Felix or other - 49.5 (-0.2 from Tokyo)
Muhammad - 49.1 (-0.2 from Tokyo)
Mu - 48.1 (+0.2 from Tokyo)
That gets us to a nice 3:16.7 🙂 Don't underestimate that Hayward Magic

I like it and hope it eventuates, but I do think it's a big ask to expect them all to be that good again.

[beebee]

That Women's 100 hurdle record can definitely go this summer.

[Atticus]

That Women's 100 hurdle record can definitely go this summer.

Tough crowd in the 'modern era'.

12.20 Kendra Harrison
12.26 Brianna McNeal
12.26 Jasmine Camacho-Quinn
12.28 Sally Pearson

[ATK]

Tough crowd in the 'modern era'.

12.20 Kendra Harrison
12.26 Brianna McNeal
12.26 Jasmine Camacho-Quinn
12.28 Sally Pearson

I wonder if we will ever see Harrison get close to her WR form. She has "only" run sub 12.4 once since 2017

[aaronk]

I agree with most of your predictions, Atticus, but here's some I don't fully agree on---
Men
10000--A Ugandan may not be alone up front!
Don't ignore Fisher, just because Americans haven't done well there (except for Rupp) in this century.
His 26:33 isn't something a smart African should laugh at!

SP
Crouser LOST to Romani INdoors!
Don't think he can't lose again OUTdoors!
To Romani again, or to Walsh, or even Kovacs!

HT
Not impossible for the likes of Fajdek or Winkler to go 274 or better!

JT
Not that long ago, there was Rohler & Vetter & Yego going 92+ meters (304 feet)
That old Eugene magic!!
LOL

4X400
NO chance for this MR to fall this year!
Not when the fastest guy in the world is/was a Collegiate (Ross)!
Cherry hasn't gone sub-44 yet!
For 2:54.29, you need to average 43.57 per leg!!
Good luck!!

Women
400---47.60 may be a "nope", but SMU does have sub-48 potential---IF she's in top shape and takes it from the gun!
AND has someone pushing her---like Naser!
BTW, when is Naser eligible again??

1500
Hassan ran the 3:51.95 as part of a triple!
Kipyegon ran 3:51.07 recently!
If it's head to head---with 1 or 2 others added--that MR can fall, as well as the 3:50 barrier!!

100H
JCQ at 12.26 and maybe Tonea Marshall (12.32 with a slight wind) can do it!
Tough, but not impossible with a 1.9 or 2.0 Eugene wind to assist!

PV
5.01 (16-5.25) has been done only by Sidorova recently (since 2020), and isn't she banned from Eugene??
Morris and Nageotte are steady 4.80 and 4.90 women, but not at 5 or higher!
Is Jenn SUHRly out of speculation??

DT
With OR without a good wind, Allman would need another AR to get this MR!

JT
Nope!!
No chance!

HT
265-3 is the MR---when Anita was throwing 2 meters farther!
Only Price has come close since!
Another AR needed to get the MR---unless Anita has one final BOMB in her!!

4X400
Too bad Charokee Young isn't USA!!
But with Mu and McLaughlin, and maybe Shamier and Delilah, an average of 49.18 is possible!
Especially if they're pushed for 2 or 3 legs by Poland!!
Felix?
First tell me why she exited Penn!!

[ATK]

BTW, when is Naser eligible again??

February 2023

[18.99s]

Always a fun game - which Championships Records can go?

400H 47.18

Warhorse!

This must be the softest WC record on the list, with 5 guys having gone faster than that in one race in Tokyo.

[Fortius19]

Good list. What sticks out to me is that Stahl could get the DT mark even without a favorable wind.


But I'd have to go back and read about wind conditions of all of his 70m throws and I wouldn't even know how to to that.

[RunningInCircles]

Gabby Thomas is who you're looking for on that 4x4

If it was a 4x300 then sure. But I don't think Gabby Thomas will be one of the 4 fastest US women in the 400 this summer.