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  • WC records

    Always a fun game - which Championships Records can go?

    Men
    .
    100 9.58 Nope
    200 19.19 Nope
    400 43.18 Nope
    800 1:42.34 Probably not
    1500 3:27.65 JI is capable, but the pace won’t be there
    5000 12:52.79 The pace may be there
    10000 26:46.31 Not unless a Ugandan is hungry
    Marathon 2:06:54 Depends on weather
    110H 12.91 GH!
    400H 47.18 Warhorse!
    3000St 8:00.43 Nope
    High jump 2.41 Nope
    Pole vault 6.05 Mondo!
    Long jump 8.95 Nope
    Triple jump 18.29 Nope
    Shot put 22.91 RC!
    Discus 70.17 If the wind is right
    Hammer 83.63 Nope
    Javelin 92.80 Nope
    Decathlon 9045 Outside chance
    4×100 37.04 Could, but probably won’t
    4×400 2:54.29 Ditto
    .
    Women
    .
    100 10.70 Possible
    200 21.63 Also possible
    400 47.99 Nope
    800 1:54.68 Posssible
    1500 3:51.95 Too tough
    5000 14:26.72 If pace is right
    10000 30:04.18 Ditto
    100H 12.28 Very tough
    400H 52.16 Yup!
    3000St 8:57.84 Probable wit right pace
    Marathon 2:20:57 With right weather
    High jump 2.09 Nope
    Pole vault 5.01 Possible
    Long jump 7.36 Very tough
    Triple jump 15.50 Rojas!
    Shot put 21.24 Nope
    Discus 71.62 Allman with good wind!
    Hammer 80.85 Possible
    Javelin 71.70 Very tough
    Heptathlon 7128 Nope
    4×100 41.07 Outside chance
    4×400 3:16.71 Too tough

  • #2
    I dont see the womens 4x4 as too tough considering the entire team is returning, and Felix may even be replaced with a faster leg (S. Little or others.)
    Last edited by ATK; 04-28-2022, 06:37 PM.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by ATK View Post
      How is the womens 4x4 too tough if the entire team is returning, and Felix may even be replaced with a faster leg? (Little or others.)
      Each leg would have to run the equivalent of a 49.7 from blocks. Mu and McLaughlin could do it, but to have those two be 'on' and have two more legs like that is - IMO - too much to ask for one given race.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Atticus View Post
        Each leg would have to run the equivalent of a 49.7 from blocks. Mu and McLaughlin could do it, but to have those two be 'on' and have two more legs like that is - IMO - too much to ask for one given race.
        I can imagine a team running:
        McLaughlin - 50.0 (+0.2 from Tokyo)
        Felix or other - 49.5 (-0.2 from Tokyo)
        Muhammad - 49.1 (-0.2 from Tokyo)
        Mu - 48.1 (+0.2 from Tokyo)

        That gets us to a nice 3:16.7 🙂 Don't underestimate that Hayward Magic
        Last edited by ATK; 04-28-2022, 07:06 PM.

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        • #5
          Gabby Thomas is who you're looking for on that 4x4

          Comment


          • #6
            If the old Michael Norman were to reappear, with the physical progression we saw at Mt SAC, the MJ record could get a look.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by ATK View Post
              I can imagine a team running:
              McLaughlin - 50.0 (+0.2 from Tokyo)
              Felix or other - 49.5 (-0.2 from Tokyo)
              Muhammad - 49.1 (-0.2 from Tokyo)
              Mu - 48.1 (+0.2 from Tokyo)
              That gets us to a nice 3:16.7 🙂 Don't underestimate that Hayward Magic
              I like it and hope it eventuates, but I do think it's a big ask to expect them all to be that good again.

              Comment


              • #8
                That Women's 100 hurdle record can definitely go this summer.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by beebee View Post
                  That Women's 100 hurdle record can definitely go this summer.
                  Tough crowd in the 'modern era'.

                  12.20 Kendra Harrison
                  12.26 Brianna McNeal
                  12.26 Jasmine Camacho-Quinn
                  12.28 Sally Pearson

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Atticus View Post
                    Tough crowd in the 'modern era'.

                    12.20 Kendra Harrison
                    12.26 Brianna McNeal
                    12.26 Jasmine Camacho-Quinn
                    12.28 Sally Pearson
                    I wonder if we will ever see Harrison get close to her WR form. She has "only" run sub 12.4 once since 2017

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I agree with most of your predictions, Atticus, but here's some I don't fully agree on---
                      Men
                      10000--A Ugandan may not be alone up front!
                      Don't ignore Fisher, just because Americans haven't done well there (except for Rupp) in this century.
                      His 26:33 isn't something a smart African should laugh at!

                      SP
                      Crouser LOST to Romani INdoors!
                      Don't think he can't lose again OUTdoors!
                      To Romani again, or to Walsh, or even Kovacs!

                      HT
                      Not impossible for the likes of Fajdek or Winkler to go 274 or better!

                      JT
                      Not that long ago, there was Rohler & Vetter & Yego going 92+ meters (304 feet)
                      That old Eugene magic!!
                      LOL

                      4X400
                      NO chance for this MR to fall this year!
                      Not when the fastest guy in the world is/was a Collegiate (Ross)!
                      Cherry hasn't gone sub-44 yet!
                      For 2:54.29, you need to average 43.57 per leg!!
                      Good luck!!

                      Women
                      400---47.60 may be a "nope", but SMU does have sub-48 potential---IF she's in top shape and takes it from the gun!
                      AND has someone pushing her---like Naser!
                      BTW, when is Naser eligible again??

                      1500
                      Hassan ran the 3:51.95 as part of a triple!
                      Kipyegon ran 3:51.07 recently!
                      If it's head to head---with 1 or 2 others added--that MR can fall, as well as the 3:50 barrier!!

                      100H
                      JCQ at 12.26 and maybe Tonea Marshall (12.32 with a slight wind) can do it!
                      Tough, but not impossible with a 1.9 or 2.0 Eugene wind to assist!

                      PV
                      5.01 (16-5.25) has been done only by Sidorova recently (since 2020), and isn't she banned from Eugene??
                      Morris and Nageotte are steady 4.80 and 4.90 women, but not at 5 or higher!
                      Is Jenn SUHRly out of speculation??

                      DT
                      With OR without a good wind, Allman would need another AR to get this MR!

                      JT
                      Nope!!
                      No chance!

                      HT
                      265-3 is the MR---when Anita was throwing 2 meters farther!
                      Only Price has come close since!
                      Another AR needed to get the MR---unless Anita has one final BOMB in her!!

                      4X400
                      Too bad Charokee Young isn't USA!!
                      But with Mu and McLaughlin, and maybe Shamier and Delilah, an average of 49.18 is possible!
                      Especially if they're pushed for 2 or 3 legs by Poland!!
                      Felix?
                      First tell me why she exited Penn!!
                      Last edited by aaronk; 04-28-2022, 10:42 PM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by aaronk View Post
                        BTW, when is Naser eligible again??
                        February 2023

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Atticus View Post
                          Always a fun game - which Championships Records can go?
                          400H 47.18 Warhorse!
                          This must be the softest WC record on the list, with 5 guys having gone faster than that in one race in Tokyo.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Good list. What sticks out to me is that Stahl could get the DT mark even without a favorable wind.


                            But I'd have to go back and read about wind conditions of all of his 70m throws and I wouldn't even know how to to that.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by gm View Post
                              Gabby Thomas is who you're looking for on that 4x4
                              If it was a 4x300 then sure. But I don't think Gabby Thomas will be one of the 4 fastest US women in the 400 this summer.

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