gh T&F draft

[berkeley]

Love gh's draft, fun take on the most likely to strike gold in Eugene. I have to take issue with the reasoning for omitting Thompson-Herah and Shelly-Ann, though. As much as I love SAFP, one of my favorite athletes since 2008, Elaine has such a clear edge right now that I can't see anyone else winning the 100 (or 200). SAFP is 35 and ETH 29. The small but significant gap between them in 2021 can only widen. I do realize that ETH is injury prone, but any of these top 10 can get injured. ETH is less vulnerable than Gardiner or Warner, both of whom have many young challengers.

[clementina]

Well I agree with 6/7 of your leaders 10 faves for winners in July, but I cannot agree with a few strange picks. Why not Warholm, or why Crouser not unbeatable ,with Kovacs and other 22 m throwers barking at his heels. If the OG is so important, justifying the polish hammer thrower, why not the double female OG champion.
What is so fascinating about any predictions is that over the last twenty years, Gold winners in track events in global champs one year have not been repeated by a similar win the following year by the athlete to the tune of about 60 percent,if my memory is correct

[gh]

Well I agree with 6/7 of your leaders 10 faves for winners in July, but I cannot agree with a few strange picks....

I wouldn't expect one to.... that's part of the fun!

[donley2]

I wouldn't expect one to.... that's part of the fun!

Indeed this very idea is part of the annual championship prediction contest at atstat.org that many of the long time message board members participate in.

[Paced]

Love gh's draft, fun take on the most likely to strike gold in Eugene. I have to take issue with the reasoning for omitting Thompson-Herah and Shelly-Ann, though. As much as I love SAFP, one of my favorite athletes since 2008, Elaine has such a clear edge right now that I can't see anyone else winning the 100 (or 200). SAFP is 35 and ETH 29. The small but significant gap between them in 2021 can only widen. I do realize that ETH is injury prone, but any of these top 10 can get injured. ETH is less vulnerable than Gardiner or Warner, both of whom have many young challengers.

I'm with gh on this one. The two traded wins over 100m last year (H2H 3-2 in ETH's favour) with both women setting historic marks. Crucially, in their last H2H, ETH ran her 3rd fastest ever in chilly conditions yet still finished behind SAFP. Without seeing much of their form this year, I'd say it's too close to call, and that's without even getting into SAFP's ridiculously good world championships record.

You could make a better case for the 200m imo but Mboma is such a wildcard that I wouldn't be so sure of that either.

[gh]

to buttress my waffling on ETH, see the back-and-forth that's part of the Keino CLassic thread

[berkeley]

Yesterday's result does change the calculus a bit. As I said, there is no bigger SAFP fan than me, and it would be fantastic to see her beat ETH in Eugene.

[Atticus]

It is very . . . interesting . . . that in recent Olympic 100s it is

SAFP

2016 - 2
2021 - 2

ETH

2016 - 1
2021 - 1

while in recent WCs. it is

SAFP

2013 - 1
2015 - 1
2019 - 1

ETH

2017 - 5
2019 - 4

Ima hafta go with SAFP this year at the WC.