What does Buster have left for the World Cross Country

[SQUACKEE]

After all that running down under is Mottram full of run or full of lactic acid?

Any predictions? Top 10 in each race? Top 5? What kind of a turf and hill runner is he? Its going to be very interesting, He is one tough cookie who seems to have it when it counts but is the long course too far for this 3:49 miler?

[Master Po]

In the absence of any real knowledge, I'm going to speculate that his CG performances will not compromise his performances at World XC. However, these races can be really unpredictable, and great runners can finish far out of the medals -- I think top 10 would be great for him.

On the other hand, he could always do what one of today's headlines on this site states -- "mottram tackles games nemesis choge" -- that would be one way to deal with the competition, but I think he'd get DQ'd for it...

[kuha]

Nostradamus says: he'll get 7th.

[BYU grad]

Kuha...that sounds about right. He certainly has the speed, strength and competitive savy to be up there with the nearly unbeatable Ethiopians and Kenyans.. ..I wish there were more non-Africans in the run for the top ten. Nothing against the great African runners, but it would be interesting to have other nations more competitive. Hope Adam Goucher can have a great race and meet his goal of top ten or better. He'll NEED a great race to do that.

[eldrick]

i believe he's doing the long race ?

now, if i was a flat, dry course over 10k he'd get into top 5 ( maybe even higher ), as we can imagine he's in probably 3'48 \ 12'50 shape currently -> ~ 26'55 if he lasted 10k as well as possible

however, trouble is, long race is 12k & that means he will suffer because of that extra 2k, due to having more speed decay than virtually all his competitors ( only kennster you can say with certainity has 3'48 speed ( but he has 12'37 endurance to go with it ) )

due to that, he'll probably struggle to get in the top 10

i'd say his better bet woud be the short race, because in theory, for 4k:

say kennster has 3'46 - 3'47 \ 12'37 form -> ~ 9'57 - 9'58

top kenyans ( lil choge, big choge, shaheen ):

3'50 \ 12'45 ->~ 10'04

& mazungo : 3'48 \ 12'50 ->~ 10'06

only the time difference is important - in short race, he coud be within 2s of the next best after kennster

[XCnut]

IAAF World Cross Country Championships, day 1 results

http://www.iaaf.org/WXC06/results/textfiles/eventCode=3484/textfile.txt

[eldrick]

better thrown in the 10 & 12k for completeness:

kennster 3'46 - 3'47 \ 12'37 - > ~ 26'17 - 26'21 , 31'52 - 31'58

top kenyans 3'50 \ 12'45 -> 26'31 , 32'09

mazungo 3'48 \ 12'50 -> ~ 26'55 , 32'42

kennster, i'd expect to be nearer the quicker end of his range ( as you get 26'17 there, which he's already run ) so he's probably got close to 20s advantage over the top kenyans & they in turn have over 30s on the mazungo

last bit:

mythical kennster v tergat race ?

at his prime, i'd have expected tergat to be in ~ 7'27 \ 12'45 shape ->
~ 26'24 , 31'58

tergat woud have been close, but i think kennster ( of past coupla years ) may have had 5s on him, on flat dry 12k courses, but add hills, wind & rain & you are in effect adding "distance" to the 12k & extra distance favors tergat closer, but still not enough to catch him -
you need a distance of ~ 17.2km before tergat's theoretical time is quicker than kennster

[kuha]

Well, Nostradamus was off by 4 places with Mottram. Great, great run by Goucher!!!

eldrick: If you want to get a good sense of Tergat's X-C brilliance, look at the IAAF film of the 1996 race...