2022 women's AOY

[18.99s]

Rojas won 3 top-tier meets (Diamond League) outside of the WC, beating the likely # 2 each time (Ricketts); McL only had 1 top-tier meet (the US trials) outside of WC, never facing the # 2 (Bol) outside of the WC.

Someone who dodges the top competitors that much shouldn't get the AOY over another undefeated athlete who faced and defeated their top rivals more often. Rojas should get the AOY over McLaughlin.

[DET59]

Rojas won 3 top-tier meets (Diamond League) outside of the WC, beating the likely # 2 each time (Ricketts); McL only had 1 top-tier meet (the US trials) outside of WC, never facing the # 2 (Bol) outside of the WC.

Someone who dodges the top competitors that much shouldn't get the AOY over another undefeated athlete who faced and defeated their top rivals more often. Rojas should get the AOY over McLaughlin.

I think "dodges" is a pretty strong word as it would imply going to lesser meets to run slower times against non-top runners. I wouldn't call running 51.68 at the István Memorial (# 6 all-time) a dodge. The key word is "top-tier," Rojas' competition this year (including 2nd Ricketts) barely changed the top 100 performances at all (one jump came in a # 86, no one else had a top 100 jump). It's true she dominated them at all her meets and they are this year's 'top tier.' In regards to SM's 400H fellow competitors this year, 4 of them added 10 more marks to the top 100 ( from 13 to 98), by far the best year ever for top 400IH marks. Sydney clearly dominated her event's 'top tier' at USATF and WC's, and it was a much more competitive "top-tier" than the TJ.

When comparing her to Rojas, it comes down to how important it is to continue this kind of dominance beyond the WC's. You also have to throw into the mix the unusual post-covid rescheduling/early scheduling of OG/WC. Worlds has always been late August, September, even October; so the DL/European season is seen as a lead up to the WC's, not a 'coronation' after the fact like this year. We go back to "normal" next August in Budapest. I'm sure we'll see SM and many other athletes starting their seasons much later and selectively running in the DL at a high level as part of their preparation.

Another thing to consider is breaking a TJ record in January and adding 9+ inches to a 25 year old record in two WR's in less than 6 months versus lowering the two year old 400h record by 1.52 seconds in 4 WR performances in less than 13 months. Both phenomenal achievements, so amazing they make breaking WRs seem easy. Also the reason why absolutely no one else comes even close to these two women for AOY.

I'm still not sure who will get AOY... I think WA and TFN will be split though GH suggested I have the split backwards (I said WA=Rojas T&FN=SM) If they don't split, both AOY's will go to Rojas. (like Mondo).

What Sydney has done is a bit like the "Tiger Slam" when Tiger Woods was the first golfer to win all 4 majors in a row, but in 12 months rather than a calendar year. She won USA Trials, OG, USATF, WC in less than 13 months, setting a WR in each one while beating the previous WR holder and having to out run competitors who also dipped under WRs. She didn't dodge anyone. She just didn't go to her own coronation in 2022....

[Wiederganger]

What Sydney has done is a bit like the "Tiger Slam" when Tiger Woods was the first golfer to win all 4 majors in a row, but in 12 months rather than a calendar year. She won USA Trials, OG, USATF, WC in less than 13 months, setting a WR in each one while beating the previous WR holder and having to out run competitors who also dipped under WRs.

Sorry, but the US Trials & USATF don't count as a major. I'd also add that after the Olympics, she disappeared for over 8 months: she ran the 4x4 August 7th 2021 and then did not race again until April 30th. She then did not compete again until June 5th - so she had one race in 10 months after her Olympic victory. After her NCs she then did the Worlds and then just one race.

This is not a season. This is not AOY material.

[aaronk]

Recent posts have centered mainly on McL-Levrone or Rojas.
My thinking has landed on SAFP!!
No sprinter--male or female--has ever had a season like hers---not Bolt or ETH or Flojo.
The only thing missing was the WR!
Only Crouser's 2021 season comes close to what Shelly achieved in 2022.
Give Syd the PerformanceOY, but please, give SAFP AOY---on a silver platter--pun only slightly intended!
LOL

[18.99s]

I think "dodges" is a pretty strong word as it would imply going to lesser meets to run slower times against non-top runners.

She went to lesser meets where there was less pressure. She knew she could hit a hurdle or stutter-step and still win against 53.x and 54.x, so she didn't have to worry much about making a mistake, and could relax mentally and stick to her race plan.

That changes if she faces Bol multiple times. She knew that Bol could already run 52-low, and might throw down a 51.x on any given day, so no race against Bol would have felt like a safe race before the fact. What would her nerves feel like before the race? How would she react if Bol was even with her at hurdle 8?

Those thoughts don't enter her mind in races against lesser mortals who are 2 to 3 seconds slower. She played it safe and avoided Bol, knowing that facing Bol another 2 or 3 times came with the realistic possibility of losing if she (Syd) made a mistake. Syd made her case for being drafted by the Dodgers, but not for AOY.

By contrast, Rojas faced Ricketts 3 times outside of the WC, knowing that winning wasn't a guarantee (and actually almost lost in Monaco, winning by just 10cm after being behind on the first 4 jumps), but put it on the line anyway.

[DET59]

She went to lesser meets where there was less pressure. She knew she could hit a hurdle or stutter-step and still win against 53.x and 54.x, so she didn't have to worry much about making a mistake, and could relax mentally and stick to her race plan.

That changes if she faces Bol multiple times. She knew that Bol could already run 52-low, and might throw down a 51.x on any given day, so no race against Bol would have felt like a safe race before the fact. What would her nerves feel like before the race? How would she react if Bol was even with her at hurdle 8?

Those thoughts don't enter her mind in races against lesser mortals who are 2 to 3 seconds slower. She played it safe and avoided Bol, knowing that facing Bol another 2 or 3 times came with the realistic possibility of losing if she (Syd) made a mistake. Syd made her case for being drafted by the Dodgers, but not for AOY.

By contrast, Rojas faced Ricketts 3 times outside of the WC, knowing that winning wasn't a guarantee (and actually almost lost in Monaco, winning by just 10cm after being behind on the first 4 jumps), but put it on the line anyway.

All very valid points- But I just don't think Sydney was thinking, "Gee, let's not go to Europe because Femke will be there and I might lose to her if I hit a hurdle."

The alternative, "I'm tired, I just ran the 1st, 2nd, and 6th fastest times in history in my last 3 meets, we don't need the expenses or the prize money, and we still haven't gone on our honeymoon because of all the training," is more likely. Again, this was a bit of an anomaly of a year with an early early WC after a delayed Olympics and then a DL "season" following WC, CG and EC. It will be interesting to see if 2023 gets the sport back to some type of pre-covid normal.

[Wiederganger]

The alternative, "I'm tired, I just ran the 1st, 2nd, and 6th fastest times in history in my last 3 meets, we don't need the expenses or the prize money, and we still haven't gone on our honeymoon because of all the training," is more likely.

Or the more likely alternative "my coach wont let me run races"

[bad hammy]

My guess is that McLaughlin doesn't give a rat's ass about the AOY award . . .

[Atticus]

My guess is that McLaughlin doesn't give a rat's ass about the AOY award . . .

Fortunately, that is not a consideration in the voting. If justice is served it's either Rojas or McLL. Syd's 2 WRs may be the deciding factor.

[18.99s]

The alternative, "I'm tired, I just ran the 1st, 2nd, and 6th fastest times in history in my last 3 meets, we don't need the expenses or the prize money, and we still haven't gone on our honeymoon because of all the training," is more likely.

So? Her reasons for competing sparsely shouldn't matter for AOY. Whatever the reasons are, at the end of the year she didn't compete enough to be AOY over Rojas who actually did put herself on the line repeatedly against her top rivals and won.

[billychuck]

Recent posts have centered mainly on McL-Levrone or Rojas.
My thinking has landed on SAFP!!
No sprinter--male or female--has ever had a season like hers---not Bolt or ETH or Flojo.
The only thing missing was the WR!
Only Crouser's 2021 season comes close to what Shelly achieved in 2022.
Give Syd the PerformanceOY, but please, give SAFP AOY---on a silver platter--pun only slightly intended!
LOL

I agree 100%.

[DET59]

So? Her reasons for competing sparsely shouldn't matter for AOY. Whatever the reasons are, at the end of the year she didn't compete enough to be AOY over Rojas who actually did put herself on the line repeatedly against her top rivals and won.

18.99, I'm really puzzled at the comparison between Sydney and Rojas and their "seasons" being the deciding factor:

Compare their single AOY event outdoors:

Sydney ran 8 400 IH races in 4 meets this year

Yulimar competed in the TJ six times in 5 meets this year -Neither had what you would call a full season.

Look at Quality: Sydney's eight races (heat, semis, finals) average 52.36... her average alone would be 15th on the all-time list. Yulimar's six outdoor comps when averaged were also amazing, depending on how you "weigh" her indoor results her average mark would be around 25th all-time. Yulimar competed in exactly one more meet than Sydney, though Sydney ran in more races than Yulimar jumped (hence had more opportunities to hit a hurdle, stutter, etc as previously pointed out).

In factoring what matters in AOY, considering who had a tougher "season" is minimal, as neither one had what one would call a long or tough season and pretty much blew everyone else away when they competed (Yulimar's- Monaco win by "only" 10cm in the fifth round was really never in doubt. At almost every meet she made no effort to get in early "safe" jumps and was going all out for records, not worried about what her competitors were doing, hence all the fouls).

Other non-factors, Yulimar jumped twice indoors (no indoor 400H), Sydney ran incredible relay anchor (which Yulimar can't do) Yulimar LJ'd a couple of times, Syd ran a 100h.... these non-primary events pretty much wash each other out.

Summarize:

-give Yulimar a slight edge for winning 3 DL's, i.e. a better season, but it's not the deciding factor
-give Syd a slight edge for breaking WR twice at big meets in 22. Both of them have set amazing records in 21/22 (Yulimar has added 10+ inches in TJ, a 50-point 400h)
-give Syd a slight edge for beating tougher competition (she beat 5 of the events top 50 performers including 2,3 & 5, Yulimar toughest competitor is only 28th all-time)
-give Yulimar a more than slight edge for her 2 titles (WC, DL final winner) over Syd (only WC and NC titles)

I think it's a close call. WA lets relays factor in, T&FN doesn't in their AOY. I don't see WA giving it to Syd as most of the voting folks are all WA insiders and Syd pretty much snubbed their "jewel" meets, however it has a popularity contest aspect to it as well so who knows?

Both of these women, "unfortunately" have made breaking world records and consistently performing a near record level look easy. World records are very tough to break and often go for decades without being broken. How anyone could seriously consider anyone else beside these two for AOY is silly.

[CD203]

-give Syd a slight edge for beating tougher competition (she beat 5 of the events top 50 performers including 2,3 & 5, Yulimar toughest competitor is only 28th all-time)
-give Yulimar a more than slight edge for her 2 titles (WC, DL final winner) over Syd (only WC and NC titles)

I don't think it's fair to give Syd an edge on the tougher competition; it isn't Rojas' fault that the other women this year didn't jump as well as the other hurdlers ran. What matters is more the quality of their performances which I think are pretty on par with one another.

Also, Rojas has 3 titles (World Indoor gold), unless of course the indoor season isn't factored into the rankings

[DET59]

I don't think it's fair to give Syd an edge on the tougher competition; it isn't Rojas' fault that the other women this year didn't jump as well as the other hurdlers ran. What matters is more the quality of their performances which I think are pretty on par with one another.

Also, Rojas has 3 titles (World Indoor gold), unless of course the indoor season isn't factored into the rankings

Good point about not being able to pick your competition, hence the word slight. I think indoor gold (which obviously Sydney can't get in 400h) kind of balances out with Sydney winning her NC which Yulimar doesn't really have. That's why I gave Yulimar more than a slight edge with titles but not a big edge. I also think DL series is a bit diminished this year with the WC's being held early followed by CW/EC's and no one really peaking for the end of August /Sept.

[18.99s]

I don't think it's fair to give Syd an edge on the tougher competition; it isn't Rojas' fault that the other women this year didn't jump as well as the other hurdlers ran.

Yet it is Syd's fault for not facing her toughest available competitor (Bol) at all outside the WC. Bol competed in the 400mh 5 times in the Diamond League, so it wasn't like it would have been difficult to find somewhere to compete against Bol.