2022 women's AOY

[DET59]

50.68 - 47.60 = 3.08 seconds.

How much does an elite female sprinter improve in her mid-twenties? Give Syd a half second of improvement with maturity and training ahd her 400 time should be pretty close by LA '28....

The men' s WR gap is 2.9 seconds.

[Wiederganger]

But thats the thing, running has NOT caught up with Koch. thats the one running event (really two with the 800m) that NO ONE has gotten close to. Not Naser, SMU, Perec, SRR, Freeman etc. etc. (I actually think Mboma would have, but thats another convo)

We've gotten close to FloJo (100/200), surpassed the Chinese marks (1500m & 10,000) as well as taken down the only other track mark from the 80s (100mH).

But there conversation in the 400m and 800m is pure speculation right now considering how insanely far out there they are.

To be clear, though I think the 400 record is not (currently) possible, I would gladly be proven wrong 🙂

And if this 'impossible' 400m WR get's broken, what does that tell you about the woman that breaks it? And what if the equally 'impossible' 800m record gets broken by Mu, as some are suggesting?

The Chinese marks may have since been surpassed, but as you also point out, the 100/200 times still stand. Regardless of how close the Jamaicans have got, better training methods, faster tracks and faster shoes still haven't beaten the 100/200 records.

We could potentially be in a situation where the same coach has athletes holding the WRs in the women's 100, 200, 400, 800, 400mh & heptathlon. Just let that sink in. Three of those records were already set in the 80's, that period where everyone seems happy to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the 400 & 800 records, but are mute on the 100/200 & heptathlon records. And even if McLaughlin & Mu don't break the records, it's like people have looked down the list of these 'suspicious' marks from the 80's, crossed out all of them apart from the 100, 200 & heptathlon "oh no, they're clean. The others are definitely dirty, but these 3, by our lovely American heroines, who were coached by the same man, are most certainly legit. But not the others. No. They are all dirty". It's totally and utterly farcical.

If McLaughlin & Mu break the WRs it would truly be surreal. But not in a good way.

[Trickstat]

I'm not convinced that SML has enough 200 speed to ever run 47.60 from blocks.

[Atticus]

To be clear, though I think the 400 record is not (currently) possible, I would gladly be proven wrong 🙂

I think (hope) you are underestimating the talent and work ethic of Syd. I'll give her till LA28, but I really think she can before then.

[ATK]

Consider how much has changed since 1985, and I don't just mean tracks and shoes. Koch had her advantages, but on the whole, running has more than caught up since then. SML is the one to do it.

But thats the thing, running has NOT caught up with Koch. thats the one running event (really two with the 800m) that NO ONE has gotten close to. Not Naser, SMU, Perec, SRR, Freeman etc. etc. (I actually think Mboma would have, but thats another convo)

We've gotten close to FloJo (100/200), surpassed the Chinese marks (1500m & 10,000) as well as taken down the only other track mark from the 80s (100mH).

But there conversation in the 400m and 800m is pure speculation right now considering how insanely far out there they are.

To be clear, though I think the 400 record is not (currently) possible, I would gladly be proven wrong 🙂

[Juicy News]

Koch's WR will stay for the next 50 years.

Her lane 2 WR will never be broken.

[Atticus]

Bobby is a legend, and I dont doubt his abilities, or SML either. But I just dont see it right now.

Consider how much has changed since 1985, and I don't just mean tracks and shoes. Koch had her advantages, but on the whole, running has more than caught up since then. SML is the one to do it.

[ATK]

Speaking of Syd . . . I love what Bobby said in the interview linked on home page;

Bobby is a legend, and I dont doubt his abilities, or SML either. But I just dont see it right now. And Im not sure how I would react if I did see it.🤯

That mark, IMO, is a wayyyy bigger deal than Warholm's 45.9 or SML's 50.6

[Atticus]

Speaking of Syd . . . I love what Bobby said in the interview linked on home page;

“You know, I have no problem letting the people know that we’re going after the 400 World Record, and we’re trying to take it down as low as possible. I believe that it could be done.”

[berkeley]

Rudolph P had two good meets, one for a WR and one for an Olympic medal. I beleive he spent most of his career 5-6 inches below his PB WR.?

His PR entering the meet where he set the WR at 2.40 was 2.26. Can't be too many precedents for that. Wessig did set two PRs on his way to his WR. Anyway we're getting off topic (no pun intended)

[DET59]

we've had at least one incident (Povarnitsin) of somebody breaking WR aand not even making the HJ rankings, let alone having a low AOY rating

Rudolph P had two good meets, one for a WR and one for an Olympic medal. I beleive he spent most of his career 5-6 inches below his PB WR.?

[TN1965]

Makes you wonder about the incentive structure of the contracts, etc., if the athletes are steering toward fewer comps when they are at their absolute peak. Not saying it's good or bad. In the business world you structure a pay plan to give you the results you want from the employee. I'd say the same thing is happening here.

Incentive structures are different from event to event, and probably athlete to athlete. Some athletes have bonus clauses tied to performances at non-championship meets. Others don't have such clauses.

Some athletes are paid appearance fees bigger than the DL prize money. For them, the size of prize money is unimportant when they pick the meets. For others, the size of prize money is important in determining where they compete.

[gh]

...

Has anyone who has broken a standard event world record ever been ranked lower than Amusan at 6th? Strange (but great) year indeed !

we've had at least one incident (Povarnitsin) of somebody breaking WR aand not even making the HJ rankings, let alone having a low AOY rating

[NotDutra5]

We've had a couple of "weird" years which likely contributed to some lack of competitions...Covid and an early WC as mentioned above. I think if this continues through '23 we'll have both a pattern and a problem.

[Steele]

Makes you wonder about the incentive structure of the contracts, etc., if the athletes are steering toward fewer comps when they are at their absolute peak. Not saying it's good or bad. In the business world you structure a pay plan to give you the results you want from the employee. I'd say the same thing is happening here.