2022 women's AOY

[Paced]

For me, McLaughlin really hurt her case by opting to watch the Monaco 400mh from the stands rather than compete in it. She has taken part in 4 competitions in her primary event, two of which were "essential". If the season were to end right now she'd be my pick, but I think a few others could move past her by the end of the season.

Rojas and Kipyegon each only have 3 competitions in their primary event, but they at least have the opportunity to add to that. SAFP has taken part in 7 100m meets, winning them all in historically fast times (10.70 or faster), and is the closest to surpassing McLaughlin for AOY in my estimation. Jackson has competed 6 times with one loss, but could make a good case with a few more wins and a WR. Amusan has already had too many losses at this point.

Then again, I had Rojas as a very clear AOY last year so I'm probably not worth listening to.

Duplantis is the clear front-runner for the men, but Lyles, Dos Santos and Crouser are all still in the mix. If the unthinkable happens and Duplantis takes a loss, it'll become very interesting.

[JumboElliott]

Wait wait. So Amusan's WR should be penalized because the people she beat ran amazing behind her?

This is a bizarre argument.

That's exactly what I'm saying. The track was playing insanely fast. It wasn't just her semi. It was all three semifinals. She set the world record and won the title. I won't take that away from her, but not all world records are created equal.

[ATK]

That's exactly what I'm saying. The track was playing insanely fast. It wasn't just her semi. It was all three semifinals. She set the world record and won the title. I won't take that away from her, but not all world records are created equal.

So all these current WRs should be penalized then because most of the field behind them ran amazing?

Rudisha's 800m
Warholm's 400mH
Van Niekerk's 400m
Women's 4x100m relay

[DET59]

I agree that AOY should ideally compete more than 4 times. It's athlete of the year, not athlete of the month.[/QUOTE]

Part of the "apple and oranges" in T&F is how some events are easier than others to compete in frequently. (Don't expect an WC podium level decathlete to enter 15 decathlons a year).... It's also what makes things like AOY so interesting.

Additionally, the lack of a renumeration standard contributes to this issue. After all, these are professional athletes whose incomes vary greatly and can be severely impacted by injury and over-traning/over competing. Back in the day when the only way to pay your bills was with an envelop of cash from a meet promoter careers were short.

Competing in multiple Diamond League (or other) events doesn't always make sense financially at the highest levels. T&F pros are self-employed contractors and theres a complex web of financial decisions they have to make. I'd argue these decisions are even more complex for women in the sport. A Vogue photo shoot, or a hair products line appearance, may be more rewarding than a Diamond League event. Maximizing income streams and extending career length (and injury avoidance) drive professionals these days, so quality is weighted more heavily than quantity. Sydney has a chance to be a 5 time Olympian by age 32. One can argue you've only got so many races in you.

[gm]

She may not be the overall AOY, but should certainly get plenty of votes for top 3 in the US -- Chase Ealey.
Two losses, both indoors at the USATF Champs and World Indoors.
Undefeated outdoors, very impressive series of marks.

[JumboElliott]

So all these current WRs should be penalized then because most of the field behind them ran amazing?

Rudisha's 800m
Warholm's 400mH
Van Niekerk's 400m
Women's 4x100m relay

Not necessarily, but I think that an argument could be made that Rudisha's 1:41.09 and 1:41.01 efforts were stronger efforts than his 1:40.91.

Also, a (very strong) argument could be made in the first three instances you mention that the outstanding performances behind the winner in the three individual world records you mention were produced precisely because the leader of the race was absolutely flying for the entire race distance and didn't let up, giving everyone else something to chase.

Whatever was happening in Eugene that night seems to have been worth at least a tenth of a second.

Conditions matter. Andy Beyer recognized this 50 years ago in horse racing. It's why no serious person thinks that Monarchos's Kentucky Derby win was anywhere close to Secretariat's despite being nearly as fast.

[beebee]

Women AOY will be between SAFP, Jackson, Mclaughlin and Amusan. The 100 and 200 records are way tougher than the other two records. I don't think it's fair that they should not be considered just because they didn't break the WR.

It's between Amusan and McLaughlin....
SAFP and Jackson broke no records.

[JumboElliott]

I would put Fraser-Pryce and Jackson higher on my ballot than Amusan (if I had one). Same with Rojas and Kipyegon.

[gh]

She may not be the overall AOY, but should certainly get plenty of votes for top 3 in the US -- Chase Ealey.
Two losses, both indoors at the USATF Champs and World Indoors.
Undefeated outdoors, very impressive series of marks.

no question (at least at this point)

[cigar95]

We can ask ask Rodolf Povarnitsyn how far an unexpected WR will take one in the AOY voting - or even the event rankings.

(True, he did not have a WC win to go along like Amusan has, but I think some may be rating the WR too highly in comparison with the full season.)

[JumboElliott]

The idea that an amazing performance is diminished because other people performed amazing behind them and the conditions were perfect is strange.

If anything, that winning athlete should receive MORE props for being able to win against a tough field. Warholm's 45.9 is even more amazing because he held of Benjamin charging to a 46.1 right behind him. McLaughlin HAD to run 51.4 last year because Muhammad was already flying to a 51.5.

More kudos to an athlete who can take advantage of perfect conditions on an individual day.

There is no doubt that Amusan was the best on that day and deserves to be ranked first in her event. I just think that her world record performances was not in the same realm as the Warholm or McLaughlin records. Sydney McLaughlin ran faster than finalists in the flat 400. Warholm ran sub-46 not too long after people questioned whether someone other than Kevin Young would run sub-47 in any of our lifetimes.

[ATK]

There is no doubt that Amusan was the best on that day and deserves to be ranked first in her event. I just think that her world record performances was not in the same realm as the Warholm or McLaughlin records. Sydney McLaughlin ran faster than finalists in the flat 400. Warholm ran sub-46 not too long after people questioned whether someone other than Kevin Young would run sub-47 in any of our lifetimes.

Got it. Like I said earlier about AOY, which applies to POY, comparing WRs across events etc:

Thats the fun in discussing AOY, theres objective criteria, but its all still very subjective

[Trickstat]

We'll have to get the US into the Commonwealth I guess.

It's eligible to do so as a former colony .

[JumboElliott]

McLaughlin ran four of the six best times (five of the top ten) in the history of her event on three different tracks without any meaningful competition. Again, this isn't close. She set two world records in what amounted to public workouts. She has the five best times in the world in her event this year. Her sixth race (a semifinal at the national championships) is the tenth best time in the world. Her only other run was a prelim where she cruised to a time that would have made the final in her event.

She had the single most dominant season by any female track athlete in decades.

[lonewolf]

SuperSyd, fka Syd the Kid