2022 women's AOY

[18.99s]

Part of the "apple and oranges" in T&F is how some events are easier than others to compete in frequently. (Don't expect an WC podium level decathlete to enter 15 decathlons a year).... It's also what makes things like AOY so interesting.

They can be evaluated relative to the typical frequency of competition for elites in their event. 2 or 3 competitions in a year is common for a hep/dec'er or marathoner, but 4 meets is a very sparse season for a hurdler. 50.68 is a POY for sure, but her season isn't enough for a hurdler to be AOY.

Some might say "but it's not fair to have different standards for different events! If 2 meets is enough for a heptathlete it should be enough for any event!". I say nope to that, because first and foremost they are being primarily evaluated relative to others in their own event. Their medals and records and the ranking of their times & distances on the all-time and season lists are based on how they stack up against others in their own event. If the quantity of their performances is low relative to other elites in their own event, they should lose points in the AOY comparison against top athletes in other events whose quantity is on par with or above the elites in the other events.

[DET59]

They can be evaluated relative to the typical frequency of competition for elites in their event. 2 or 3 competitions in a year is common for a hep/dec'er or marathoner, but 4 meets is a very sparse season for a hurdler. 50.68 is a POY for sure, but her season isn't enough for a hurdler to be AOY.

Some might say "but it's not fair to have different standards for different events! If 2 meets is enough for a heptathlete it should be enough for any event!". I say nope to that, because first and foremost they are being primarily evaluated relative to others in their own event. Their medals and records and the ranking of their times & distances on the all-time and season lists are based on how they stack up against others in their own event. If the quantity of their performances is low relative to other elites in their own event, they should lose points in the AOY comparison against top athletes in other events whose quantity is on par with or above the elites in the other events.

Playing devil's advocate here, so if Sydney did the "smart" thing and decided to "pick and chose" 3 or 4 more "soft" diamond league events (when you look at the 400IH winning times) and gave a 95% effort to win by 10 meters plus you'd consider that a better/AOY season? I admire her for choosing quality over quantity (especially at her age); what will be interesting is what she chooses in the future. To me, a 22 year old running 50.68 is not that far off from Koch's 47.60. She definitely can give Uibo and Naser a run for their money if she goes that route.

[beebee]

McLaughlin ran four of the six best times (five of the top ten) in the history of her event on three different tracks without any meaningful competition. Again, this isn't close. She set two world records in what amounted to public workouts. She has the five best times in the world in her event this year. Her sixth race (a semifinal at the national championships) is the tenth best time in the world. Her only other run was a prelim where she cruised to a time that would have made the final in her event.

She had the single most dominant season by any female track athlete in decades.

Unless Amusan can go under 12 McLaughlin will be a lock for AOY.

[ATK]

Playing devil's advocate here, so if Sydney did the "smart" thing and decided to "pick and chose" 3 or 4 more "soft" diamond league events (when you look at the 400IH winning times) and gave a 95% effort to win by 10 meters plus you'd consider that a better/AOY season? I admire her for choosing quality or quantity (especially at her age);

For reference Dalilah Muhammad's 2019 AOY season:

• Doha DL
• Osaka Grand Prix
• Rome Diamond League
• Oslo Diamond League
• USA Champs
• Zurich DL
• World Championships

[SoCal45]

Playing devil's advocate here, so if Sydney did the "smart" thing and decided to "pick and chose" 3 or 4 more "soft" diamond league events (when you look at the 400IH winning times) and gave a 95% effort to win by 10 meters plus you'd consider that a better/AOY season? I admire her for choosing quality or quantity (especially at her age); what will be interesting is what she chooses in the future. To me, a 22 year old running 50.68 is not that far off from Koch's 47.60. She definitely can give Uibo and Naser a run for their money if she goes that route.

a run for their money? my money would be on SM to win easily.

[18.99s]

Playing devil's advocate here, so if Sydney did the "smart" thing and decided to "pick and chose" 3 or 4 more "soft" diamond league events (when you look at the 400IH winning times) and gave a 95% effort to win by 10 meters plus you'd consider that a better/AOY season?

Yes. With her choice to be in just 2 meets outside of the mandatory trials and WC, that's fewer opportunities to make a critical mistake or have a bad day, and she could choose meets to fit ideal times in her training cycle, as opposed to others in her own event and other events who compete 7+ times and sometimes raced when their legs felt heavy from recent training or competing often.

And even if a Diamond League meet turns out to be "soft" in hindsight, she doesn't know that ahead of time. It's still the highest level on the pro circuit, and she avoided it altogether, choosing meets that would knowingly be softer than the Diamond League. She absolutely should lose points in the AOY race for skipping the Diamond League completely while not making up for it with a good string of meets elsewhere.

[Chafford1]

Women AOY will be between SAFP, Jackson, Mclaughlin and Amusan. The 100 and 200 records are way tougher than the other two records. I don't think it's fair that they should not be considered just because they didn't break the WR.

SAFP or Kipyegon for me - consistent fast performances in events where the world records are extremely tough to beat. Lopping large amounts of time off 'soft' 400m hurdles records doesn't do it for me.

[DET59]

Yes. With just 2 meets outside of the mandatory trials and WC, that's fewer opportunities to make a critical mistake or have a bad day, and she could choose meets to fit ideal times in her training cycle, as opposed to others in her own event and other events who compete 7+ times and sometimes raced when their legs felt heavy from recent training or competing often.

And even if a Diamond League meet turns out to be "soft" in hindsight, she doesn't know that ahead of time. It's still the highest level on the pro circuit, and she avoided it altogether, choosing meets that would knowingly be softer than the Diamond League. She absolutely should lose points in the AOY race for skipping the Diamond League completely while not making up for it with a good string of meets elsewhere.

Very good points and they make a lot of sense. For Sydney, who obviously is hitting some kind of peak right now, pretty much any post WC race would be soft unless a promoter wanted to spend some big money for her to face Bol (whose season's best was a good 15 meters behind Sydney).

The big question: what's in it for her? Does the T&FN AOY magazine cover come with a big check? Does getting World Athletics AOY offset having to spend the time, money and effort to go run some mediocre (for her) races in Europe? I don't think Sydney chose meets because they were softer; I'm pretty sure she chose meets that paid her the most money. If she was a middle distance runner she could enter some "jog and sprint" races. You can't do that in the hurdles. I don't fault Sydney if she doesn't get AOY, if anything she is a victim of her own success and the "new" nature of professional running that rewards quality over quantity. Promoters aren't going to (or can't) make it worth her while for what, at best, might possibly be a two person race. Sydney's run in 10 races this year, 9 over hurdles and 1 being a gold medal 400 leg where she put down 10-20 meters on some of the fastest women in the world. Her nearest competitor has run 7 times over hurdles, mostly mid 52's to high 53's (of course she still has Euros). The 400IH is a brutal event and running a 53 is not much different than a 51, fatigue-wise. Heck, Sydney's semi-final "jog" is in the top 10 all-time list.

No other events has seen the level of performance that the 400IH has seen in the past two years. The men's 200 has been close, but it is still over-shadowed by Bolt prime time. Men's shot also comes close. To me the AOY is about performance and dominating your competition. Whether Sydney runs 10 races in 2022 or 20 races, I don't think it matters.

However, if Yulimar jumps 15.75+ before the end of the season, and maybe ends it with 8 or 9 of the all-time best performances ever, there might be a reason to again give her AOY : )

[Track78]

a run for their money? my money would be on SM to win easily.

There's silly and then there's this. No, she wouldn't win "easily" and it's possible she doesn't win that race at all.

[Awsi Dooger]

BTW, Sydney finally moved into 1st in the World Athletics rankings at 400 hurdles and 5th overall female. It must have been the points from the race a few days ago that put her over the top. I checked last week and Bol was still 1st in hurdles and 5th overall, ahead of Sydney. Now they have flopped positions with Bol 2nd and 6th.

I didn't want to mention the rankings here last week because I knew they would cause consternation. Somehow track and field fans are mesmerized by personal bests and have no concept of point tallies or power ratings. Sydney would always have been ahead of Bol in power ratings but there are numerous instances in which the personal bests are not representative of who would lead the power ratings.

Those talking head guys who think they have to overreact to everything and subjectively shift some NFL team up or down 8 spots based on one game, those are power rankings. Jeff Sagarin is power ratings.

[Wiederganger]

Why are we talking about AOY when we aren't even in mid August yet? We have another 3 DL meetings yet over the next 4 weeks, which is just under a quarter of the DL meetings, as well as something like 12 Continental Tour meetings. There is still plenty of time for the big guns - other than Miss I don't run DL meetings McLaughlin - to do something special still. Let's wait until September.

[DET59]

Why are we talking about AOY when we aren't even in mid August yet? We have another 3 DL meetings yet over the next 4 weeks.

1. The early WC''s. 2019 was in mid September.
2. The uniqueness of SM having perhaps the most dominant single event start of a season ever, then saying "I'm done right now" while being perfectly fit and healthy. Has anyone ever done anything close to this before?

[18.99s]

The big question: what's in it for her? Does the T&FN AOY magazine cover come with a big check? Does getting World Athletics AOY offset having to spend the time, money and effort to go run some mediocre (for her) races in Europe? I don't think Sydney chose meets because they were softer; I'm pretty sure she chose meets that paid her the most money.

It might not be in her financial best interest to compete more often, but AOY isn't about who has the best season financially, it's about the best overall season competitively. She's done enough to be # 1 in the 400 hurdles for 2022 (unless Bol pops some big surprises), but not enough to be AOY against world champions in other events who go undefeated in their primary event in 6 or more meets, in historically top-ranked times/distances, including facing and beating other medalists on the circuit. She shouldn't get a pass just because enough meets aren't paying her enough money to get out of the stands and onto the track.

But I do think she's choosing lower-key meets because they are softer, and probably for less money than the DL, because now that she's the # 1 with a target on her back she doesn't like the pressure of top-level competition. When she was the # 2 in 2019 there was less pressure and she competed more often. And next season she's probably going to switch to the flat 400 or the 100 hurdles where she's not the # 1 and she'll feel less pressure.

[Wiederganger]

1. The early WC''s. 2019 was in mid September.
2. The uniqueness of SM having perhaps the most dominant single event start of a season ever, then saying "I'm done right now" while being perfectly fit and healthy. Has anyone ever done anything close to this before?

1. Regardless of when the WC's are, there is still the rest of the season (CWG, Europeans, DL's, Continental Tour)...
2. She is one of a number of possible AOY. Just because she has bizarrely chosen to not run, it doesn't mean we hand out the award right now. Let's see what SAFP, Kipyegon, Rojas etc. do.

Oh, we don't have to go far to see who else has had restricted seasons: other top 400m hurdles have done something similar to Sydney in the past (either WR years or Gold medal winning years) but that has tended to be Eastern Bloc athletes or drug cheats - see below. There is something to be said about preparing behind closed doors, hardly racing, and coming out in WR form:

• 1991 World Champion Tatyana Ledovskaya had just 1 race before Tokyo 91, and nothing after (2 meetings, 4 races). In 1990 when she won the European Championships, she ran in 4 meets (7 races), 2 meets before Split and 1 after.
• Former 400mh WR holder Marina Stepanova URS had 5 meetings (9 races) at 400mh during her WR season (1 meet post European Champs)
• 1987 World Champion Sabine Busch GDR had 6 meetings (9 races) in her gold medal winning season (1 race post Worlds, but the Worlds were late that year)
• In her WR season, Yuliya Pechonkina ran in 3 meets pre Worlds (only 2 in the 400mh, the other was a 100/200) and set the WR. (Of course she later only won bronze in Paris). She ran 2 races after (5 meets at 400mh, 9 races)
• In her 2004 Olympic gold medal season, drug cheat Fani Chalkia ran just 3 meets before Athens, then won the Olympic title. She ran 1 post Olympic 400mh and 1 400m flat.

[DET59]

It might not be in her financial best interest to compete more often, but AOY isn't about who has the best season financially, it's about the best overall season competitively. She's done enough to be # 1 in the 400 hurdles for 2022 (unless Bol pops some big surprises), but not enough to be AOY against world champions in other events who go undefeated in their primary event in 6 or more meets, in historically top-ranked times/distances, including facing and beating other medalists on the circuit. She shouldn't get a pass just because enough meets aren't paying her enough money to get out of the stands and onto the track.

But I do think she's choosing lower-key meets because they are softer, and probably for less money than the DL, because now that she's the # 1 with a target on her back she doesn't like the pressure of top-level competition. When she was the # 2 in 2019 there was less pressure and she competed more often. And next season she's probably going to switch to the flat 400 or the 100 hurdles where she's not the # 1 and she'll feel less pressure.

Completely agree with everything you've said, except all meets this season would be "soft" for her in the 400IH...heck she won the WC by 15 meters. I like what you are saying about the 400 flat and 100 hurdles. Just like many other pros in other sports, she's probably picking money/championships/gold medals over stats that get end of year awards. It will be interesting to see if once again T&FN diverges from WA's AOY selection. I think there's a good chance it will.