Tweet
IMHO, the 2022 Berlin Marathon is, for Eliud Kipchoge, the last/best opportunity to advance his WR and possibly surmount the 2 hr barrier (there's an overused word).
1. Kipchoge will be 38 yrs old in November. He has cheated the grim reaper of age so far, well beyond the point that most athletes succumb to the predations of time and wear/tear. With every marathon he races, the probability increases that he will slow due to the effects of aging.
2. He is coming off a very good effort in Tokyo, only one minute slower than his WR. He is as close to his potential peak as he can be at this age.
3. Berlin is generally acknowledged as the fastest major course in the world. If he misses this year he has to wait another full year or attempt a slower course in the interim.
4. The temperature forecast is perfect, high 40s to low 50s during the race.
5. Almost zero wind forecast.
6. Negligible chance of precipitation.
For all these reasons, Kipchoge must make an all-out assault this Sunday. Any one of these factors could come into play in a future race and effectively negate his chances; too hot, too cold, windy, rain, slower course, he picks up an injury.
It's do-or-die time.
1. Kipchoge will be 38 yrs old in November. He has cheated the grim reaper of age so far, well beyond the point that most athletes succumb to the predations of time and wear/tear. With every marathon he races, the probability increases that he will slow due to the effects of aging.
2. He is coming off a very good effort in Tokyo, only one minute slower than his WR. He is as close to his potential peak as he can be at this age.
3. Berlin is generally acknowledged as the fastest major course in the world. If he misses this year he has to wait another full year or attempt a slower course in the interim.
4. The temperature forecast is perfect, high 40s to low 50s during the race.
5. Almost zero wind forecast.
6. Negligible chance of precipitation.
For all these reasons, Kipchoge must make an all-out assault this Sunday. Any one of these factors could come into play in a future race and effectively negate his chances; too hot, too cold, windy, rain, slower course, he picks up an injury.
It's do-or-die time.
Comment