Multi-events 2023

[Davidokun]

Projected first-day performances

Athlete	100	LJ	SP	HJ	400	Total
Warner	10.14	8.05	14.99	2.05	48.07	4680
LePage	10.35	7.54	15.99	1.99	46.84	4567
Skotheim	10.88	7.73	14.48	2.20	48.27	4526
Ehammer	10.73	8.12	14.10	2.03	47.40	4517
Victor	10.72	7.56	16.29	2.05	48.20	4492
Thompson	10.52	7.69	14.84	1.98	47.74	4439
Tilga	11.16	7.66	16.19	2.07	48.71	4406
Gaio	10.54	7.59	14.42	1.94	47.08	4380
Mullings	10.59	7.29	15.09	2.08	49.53	4346
Eitel	10.48	7.20	15.27	2.01	48.66	4338
Hauttekeete	10.89	7.47	14.08	2.12	49.30	4307
Moloney	10.81	7.40	14.28	2.02	48.01	4289
Dubler	10.79	7.61	13.17	2.11	49.84	4276
Gletty	10.78	7.18	16.07	1.95	49.02	4241
Hernández	10.62	7.49	13.33	2.05	49.99	4231
Benkunskas	10.77	7.03	14.85	2.09	50.05	4214
Williams	10.97	7.54	14.52	1.92	49.40	4145
Kopecký	11.06	7.47	14.00	1.95	48.54	4143
Meyer	10.93	7.27	14.02	1.92	47.67	4140
Samuelsson	11.14	7.22	14.41	2.03	49.21	4131
Roosen	10.75	7.35	14.52	1.79	47.69	4118
Wiesiołek	11.08	7.33	15.58	1.96	50.53	4118
Golubovic	10.91	6.96	15.60	1.96	49.52	4116
Spyridonidis	11.19	7.28	14.64	2.02	49.78	4115
Nowak	11.31	7.06	14.94	2.01	49.93	4038
Pittomvils	11.32	7.10	15.31	2.02	51.09	4025
Nilsson	11.38	6.82	15.23	1.95	49.77	3936
Mechler	11.10	6.97	14.08	1.90	49.77	3917
Peristéris	11.72	7.07	13.47	1.81	51.75	3605

[Davidokun]

Projected second-day performances

Athlete	110H	DT	PV	JT	1500	Total
Nilsson	15.01	47.81	5.15	66.69	4:18.51	4287
Tilga	14.85	51.39	4.75	64.05	4:21.91	4199
Warner	13.48	47.56	4.90	58.62	4:38.65	4149
Golubovic	14.03	48.40	4.90	58.26	4:29.67	4147
Victor	14.66	52.26	4.80	66.20	4:43.74	4147
LePage	13.87	50.38	4.97	57.52	4:42.77	4134
Kopecký	14.23	45.29	5.00	61.90	4:34.12	4112
Skotheim	14.52	44.80	5.00	61.55	4:26.38	4111
Roosen	14.12	42.75	4.65	61.01	4:18.43	4059
Nowak	14.49	46.76	4.70	58.92	4:21.37	4058
Gletty	14.22	46.24	4.85	56.95	4:28.66	4048
Benkunskas	14.26	46.17	4.83	63.02	4:48.66	4001
Eitel	14.34	44.80	4.80	61.11	4:36.57	4000
Samuelsson	14.58	42.43	4.95	60.73	4:35.52	3968
Dubler	14.13	42.41	4.90	56.75	4:37.26	3939
Ehammer	13.43	38.83	5.11	55.98	4:48.72	3938
Pittomvils	14.56	46.77	4.81	57.61	4:42.62	3924
Meyer	14.26	43.12	4.90	57.24	4:41.28	3917
Williams	14.11	44.95	4.75	57.19	4:45.98	3899
Mechler	14.38	39.79	4.92	53.74	4:28.29	3872
Hauttekeete	14.10	38.56	5.01	53.29	4:33.17	3871
Spyridonidis	14.27	40.66	5.10	48.79	4:40.58	3807
Gaio	13.61	43.15	4.80	47.76	4:45.96	3802
Mullings	13.95	43.77	4.77	58.50	5:06.41	3801
Wiesiołek	15.01	45.15	4.53	53.36	4:27.92	3783
Peristéris	15.53	44.88	4.80	56.78	4:43.11	3751
Moloney	14.84	44.98	4.75	54.99	4:54.71	3723
Thompson	14.32	37.36	4.50	67.08	4:58.09	3721
Hernández	14.54	41.26	4.65	58.22	5:01.63	3661

[Davidokun]

Projected leaderboard progression, first day

	100			LJ			SP			HJ			400
1	Warner	1062	1	Warner	2135	1	Warner	2924	1	Warner	3774	1	Warner	4680
2	LePage	1011	2	Ehammer	2014	2	LePage	2807	2	Skotheim	3630	2	LePage	4567
3	Eitel	980	3	LePage	1956	3	Ehammer	2748	3	LePage	3601	3	Skotheim	4526
4	Thompson	970	4	Thompson	1952	4	Victor	2743	4	Victor	3593	4	Ehammer	4517
5	Gaio	966	5	Gaio	1923	5	Thompson	2732	5	Ehammer	3579	5	Victor	4492

[Davidokun]

Projected leaderboard progression, second day

	110H			DT			PV			JT			1500
1	Warner	5723	1	Warner	6543	1	Warner	7423	1	Warner	8140	1	Warner	8829
2	Ehammer	5566	2	LePage	6436	2	LePage	7337	2	LePage	8038	2	LePage	8701
3	LePage	5558	3	Victor	6301	3	Ehammer	7151	3	Victor	7982	3	Victor	8639
4	Skotheim	5434	4	Ehammer	6207	4	Victor	7150	4	Skotheim	7868	4	Skotheim	8637
5	Gaio	5405	5	Skotheim	6197	5	Skotheim	7107	5	Ehammer	7829	5	Tilga	8605

[Davidokun]

I'll post the heptathlon projections tomorrow.

[donley2]

I'll post the heptathlon projections tomorrow.

As always thanks for this. Great stuff.

[Davidokun]

As always thanks for this. Great stuff.

You're very welcome. Enjoy the meet.

[ZazaShoya]

Projected Rank	Athlete	Federation	Projected Score	± PB	PB/Sum of PBs
1	Damian Warner	Canada	8829	-189	95,9
2	Pierce LePage	Canada	8701	0	95,3
3	Lindon Victor	Grenada	8639	89	95,6
4	Sander Aae Skotheim	Norway	8637	339	96,0
5	Karel Tilga	Estonia	8605	125	95,6
6	Simon Ehammer	Switzerland	8455	-13	96,2
7	Manuel Eitel	Germany	8338	145	95,8
8	Makenson Gletty	France	8289	148	95,5
9	Daniel Golubovic	Australia	8263	-73	96,3
10	Ondřej Kopecký	Czechia	8255	-55	98,5
11	Marcus Nilsson	Sweden	8223	-106	97,0
12	Cedric Dubler	Australia	8215	-178	95,4
13	Edgaras Benkunskas	Lithuania	8213	321	94,1
14	Finley Gaio	Switzerland	8182	233	94,6
15	Jente Hauttekeete	Belgium	8178	364	93,7
16	Sven Roosen	Netherlands	8177	121	95,9
17	Kendrick Thompson	Bahamas	8160	145	96,8
18	Ken Mullings	Bahamas	8147	214	96,1
19	Fredrik Samuelsson	Sweden	8099	-73	94,7
20	Tim Nowak	Germany	8096	-133	95,9
21	Marcel Meyer	Germany	8057	95	96,3
22	Devon Williams	USA	8044	-301	95,6
23	Ashley Moloney	Australia	8012	-637	98,5
24	Niels Pittomvils	Belgium	7949	-273	96,5
25	Alexandros Spyridonidis	Greece	7922	5	96,7
26	Paweł Wiesiołek	Poland	7901	-432	94,2

Taking Davidokun's work with some more infos.

Expected Decathlons based on SBs is of course tricky, but we can take some notes from these charts. The biggest expected improvements tend to indicate a likely breakthrough, as it means the athletes are doing way better individually than they used to, or, at least, than they did during their record Dec.
This is reinforced by the ratio PB/Sum of PBs. Guys with a low ratio (below 96, even more below 95) have a record that doesn't quite match their abilities (here Benkunskas, Gaio, Hautekeette), so they possess the skills to beat this record, and they are in shape to do it. They probably won't reach those scores, but a big PB is on the cards.
Skotheim being young and healthy, almost of his PBs were set recently, hence the very high projection (= sum of PBs - 6), then again unlikely but a 8400+ seems doable.
I'm quite surprised by LePage's projection but now I feel he will be over this score. At least if he's healthy, which was not the case every time he's come to Götzis.

[DET59]

You're very welcome. Enjoy the meet.

Thanks again David for all the information and charting...it makes following the multis really interesting!

[cigar95]

. . . . . AK scored 5 points over her previous PR totals.

If I have it right, Annie is nearly unique in that her Hep score is higher than her *current* PRs, not merely the PRs coming in. I can't think of a way to do that other than a windy mark in one of the three that count.

[Davidokun]

Thanks again David for all the information and charting...it makes following the multis really interesting!

You're very welcome. Stimulating interest in combined events is the prime directive.

[DET59]

If I have it right, Annie is nearly unique in that her Hep score is higher than her *current* PRs, not merely the PRs coming in. I can't think of a way to do that other than a windy mark in one of the three that count.

I believe the OP means her PR's prior to the meet. I read it the same way you did (which, I agree, is basically impossible unless the very unlikely event of a higher level athlete actually setting all 8/10 PRs in one meet, and then happened to have a windy mark)

Same with Garland (I didn't calculate AK's, but I used the World Athletics website to Calculate Garland's) When he scored his PR 8720 last May in Fayetteville he PR'd in the 100, 110H, HJ, PV, LJ and JT. Combined with his marks in the other 4 events he scored considerably higher than the sum of his pre- May 6, 2022 PR's listed in the event progression part of the World Athletics stats site. This is pretty unusual at a high level (6500+ 8500+) scoring over 100% of the sum of your PR's that you had prior to the meet.

It's interesting to examine Mayer's 2018 Word Record (maybe the most "perfect" decathlon ever)... he scored 99.5% of the sum of his previous PRs and set I believe 3 new PRs and tied one.

It's fascinating to follow David's charts (I know they are not predictions) as they tend to be very accurate, especially as he adjusts them during big meets. It really makes watching a multi even more interesting. The PB "pecentage range" of 94-97 is pretty dead on at a high level meet, though occasionally you get an amazing perfornance (like Mayer's WR , or Garland's CR/College Absolute) they goes beyond expectation (which is what makes a multi record so much fun to watch, you kind of see it coming but at the same time the trend to "regress to the mean" is always there)...

'Would love to see some "100% plusers" at Gotzis... I'll even settle for a 98.3% from Warner (as that would break the WR) though I think highly unlikely at age 33

[ZazaShoya]

I believe the OP means her PR's prior to the meet. I read it the same way you did (which, I agree, is basically impossible unless the very unlikely event of a higher level athlete actually setting all 8/10 PRs in one meet, and then happened to have a windy mark)

Nope, I meant her current PRs. Which is indeed only achievable with a windy mark and close to best effort in all of the events.
Actually, her PB exceeds what she would theoretically be able to do.

[DET59]

Nope, I meant her current PRs. Which is indeed only achievable with a windy mark and close to best effort in all of the events.
Actually, her PB exceeds what she would theoretically be able to do.

You are absolutely right and I and the one who misintepreted!~ Cigar95 was also correct in his understanding of the post. It's amazing her 12.95w "makes up" for the SP that was 7cm off her PR and her 800 which was only .5 from her previous PR. Like you said, it could only be achieved with a windy mark; and in her case a very minimal wind (2.4) in only one event Even accounting for this slight wind, she still had am amazing "PR" day scoring over 200 points (103%?) on the sum of her pre-Trials PRs, adding over 500 points to her previous Hep best, and moving her from 1800+ on the all-time performances list into the top 100 of all-time performances. Almost the "perfect day"... Let hope she can get back to the same level or better.

[Revenant]

KJT reckons she has wintered well and says she enjoyed training through rather than competing for a change. It enabled to catch up on lost training from all her recent injuries.

Whilst the 100mh is always a good indicator of an athletes fitness - sustaining that speed & rhythm for the entirety of the race is tough - her HJ is going to be the first telling event. She hasn't been over 1.9 since 2019, her post-achilles-injury best being only 1.86. She only went 1.77 in Gotzis last year, and then onto 1.83 in Eugene (1.84 at the CWG). If she wants to challenge for a medal in Budapest she needs at least 1.89 here so she can build to 1.9+.

13+ in the SP will be great for her, and then in the 200m she has to aim for under 23.50 here to build to 23.3 or faster in Budapest. Whilst Anna Hall has overtaken her as the fastest heptathlete, she still needs as much as she can over the others in this event. Then, of course, the LJ. I have no idea what she is capable of this year - her last LJ was 6.33 a the CWG and she went 6.37 last year in Gotzis which is her best post-achilles-injury mark. So, by her standards, pretty poor. If she can go 6.5+ here it will be brilliant.