Multi-events 2023

[Davidokun]

Simple projections for the Hypomeeting Götzis heptathlon, based on summing scores for season-best performances. If the heptathlete has not yet established a season best in a discipline, then I used her season-best performance from the previous year, and so on. Corrections are welcome.

As always, the primary purpose of these projections is to enhance the fan experience by providing some insight into the actual leaders, who may or may not top the leaderboard early in the competition.

Projected Rank	Athlete	Federation	Projected Score
1	Anna Hall	USA	6909
2	Adrianna Sułek	Poland	6765
3	Emma Oosterwegel	Netherlands	6623
4	Anouk Vetter	Netherlands	6589
5	Katarina Johnson-Thompson	UK	6434
6	Paulina Ligarska	Poland	6423
7	Saga Vanninen	Finland	6375
8	Taliyah Brooks	USA	6355
9	Adriana Rodríguez	Cuba	6331
10	Sofie Dokter	Netherlands	6301
11	Sophie Weißenberg	Germany	6281
12	Jana Koščak	Croatia	6208
13	Carolin Schäfer	Germany	6200
14	Maria Huntington	Finland	6187
15	Jade O'Dowda	UK	6186
16	Marys Adela Patterson	Cuba	6146
17	Georgia Ellenwood	Canada	6090
18	Annie Kunz	USA	6044
19	Sarah Lagger	Austria	6024
20	Yuliya Loban	Ukraine	6021
21	Marijke Esselink	Netherlands	5976
22	Vanessa Grimm	Germany	5970
23	Taneille Crase	Australia	5960
24	Sandra Röthlin	Switzerland	5905
25	Celine Albisser	Switzerland	5895
26	Anna-Lena Obermaier	Germany	5858
27	Chiara-Belinda Schuler	Austria	5788
28	Isabel Posch	Austria	5680

[Davidokun]

Projected first-day performances

Athlete	100H	HJ	SP	200	Total
Hall	12.90	1.91	13.94	23.60	4068
Sułek	13.11	1.89	13.89	23.77	3991
Vanninen	13.41	1.73	16.12	24.49	3824
Johnson-Thompson	13.73	1.84	13.13	23.51	3810
Rodríguez	13.09	1.76	13.76	23.88	3809
Ligarska	13.93	1.86	14.62	24.65	3796
Dokter	13.75	1.84	13.47	23.91	3791
Vetter	13.28	1.69	15.06	23.94	3776
Oosterwegel	13.42	1.77	14.42	24.43	3765
Brooks	13.23	1.79	13.01	24.06	3759
Koščak	13.76	1.91	12.22	24.62	3730
Kunz	13.32	1.68	15.61	24.63	3730
Weißenberg	13.79	1.76	13.59	23.67	3716
Schäfer	13.54	1.72	14.38	24.16	3707
Huntington	13.29	1.83	12.98	25.07	3703
Esselink	13.41	1.71	13.65	24.45	3639
Grimm	14.07	1.72	15.11	24.62	3637
O'Dowda	13.62	1.77	13.31	24.87	3621
Patterson	13.84	1.82	12.88	24.91	3618
Loban	14.05	1.77	14.51	25.49	3582
Ellenwood	13.40	1.71	12.32	24.22	3574
Albisser	13.57	1.69	12.98	24.50	3541
Crase	13.60	1.74	11.83	24.53	3519
Röthlin	13.69	1.65	14.02	24.92	3507
Obermaier	14.01	1.72	13.43	25.33	3469
Lagger	14.51	1.74	14.35	25.76	3445
Posch	14.21	1.69	11.55	24.49	3356
Schuler	14.50	1.62	14.11	25.31	3328

[Davidokun]

Projected second-day performances

Athlete	LJ	JT	800	Total
Oosterwegel	6.33	55.47	2:11.78	2858
Hall	6.61	43.38	2:03.23	2841
Vetter	6.29	59.81	2:20.09	2813
Sułek	6.62	42.86	2:07.17	2774
Ligarska	6.10	48.33	2:13.16	2627
Johnson-Thompson	6.37	44.33	2:13.93	2624
Brooks	6.65	39.00	2:15.02	2596
Lagger	6.05	46.59	2:13.08	2579
O'Dowda	6.33	40.51	2:12.07	2565
Weißenberg	6.28	46.21	2:18.72	2565
Vanninen	6.29	46.70	2:20.64	2551
Patterson	6.04	48.33	2:18.92	2528
Rodríguez	6.64	36.50	2:16.72	2522
Ellenwood	6.00	42.84	2:11.45	2516
Dokter	6.17	43.12	2:15.84	2510
Schäfer	5.68	48.56	2:13.95	2493
Huntington	6.41	43.58	2:24.02	2484
Koščak	6.34	44.38	2:23.97	2478
Schuler	5.95	49.29	2:23.21	2460
Crase	6.25	38.64	2:16.39	2441
Loban	5.96	45.13	2:19.05	2439
Röthlin	6.09	41.34	2:19.65	2398
Obermaier	5.69	47.29	2:19.89	2389
Albisser	6.03	35.18	2:13.05	2354
Esselink	5.82	42.59	2:19.87	2337
Grimm	5.82	39.45	2:15.83	2333
Posch	6.14	39.67	2:23.98	2324
Kunz	5.69	40.11	2:15.24	2314

[Davidokun]

Projected leaderboard progression, first day

	100H			HJ			SP			200
1	Hall	1140	1	Hall	2259	1	Hall	3049	1	Hall	4068
2	Rodríguez	1111	2	Sułek	2201	2	Sułek	2988	2	Sułek	3991
3	Sułek	1108	3	Koščak	2132	3	Vanninen	2890	3	Vanninen	3824
4	Brooks	1090	4	Huntington	2097	4	Ligarska	2877	4	Johnson-Thompson	3810
5	Vetter	1083	5	Brooks	2056	5	Oosterwegel	2825	5	Rodríguez	3809

[Davidokun]

Projected leaderboard progression, second day

	LJ			JT			800
1	Hall	5111	1	Hall	5843	1	Hall	6909
2	Sułek	5037	2	Vetter	5767	2	Sułek	6765
3	Rodríguez	4862	3	Sułek	5759	3	Oosterwegel	6623
4	Brooks	4815	4	Oosterwegel	5684	4	Vetter	6589
5	Johnson-Thompson	4775	5	Vanninen	5560	5	Johnson-Thompson	6434

[cigar95]

You are absolutely right and I and the one who misintepreted!~ Cigar95 was also correct in his understanding of the post. It's amazing her 12.95w "makes up" for the SP that was 7cm off her PR and her 800 which was only .5 from her previous PR. Like you said, it could only be achieved with a windy mark; and in her case a very minimal wind (2.4) in only one event Even accounting for this slight wind, she still had am amazing "PR" day scoring over 200 points (103%?) on the sum of her pre-Trials PRs, adding over 500 points to her previous Hep best, and moving her from 1800+ on the all-time performances list into the top 100 of all-time performances. Almost the "perfect day"... Let hope she can get back to the same level or better.

Perhaps my favorite thing in all of sports is experiencing an athlete who has one of those "who would have ever believed it" moments like Annie did. Like a vaulter who clears five PR heights on one series and goes from 5.65 to 6.02. Even if Mondo sets a WR in the same event, my memory would be of the other vaulter.
I call this an "Aren Moment", after Aren Nielsen, a figure skater who had a magic moment on national television back in 1993, when he gave perhaps the closest thing to a perfect performance I ever saw. I was fortunate to be in the front row for that one and I enjoy seeing myself in the background whenever I watch the performance.

[DET59]

Perhaps my favorite thing in all of sports is experiencing an athlete who has one of those "who would have ever believed it" moments like Annie did. .

Yes, such moments are unforgettable and when they happen in a major competition even more so. One of the exciting things about the mutlis is when an athlete defies the tendancy to "regress to the mean" (that happens in most multis....) and produces something like AK or Garland, and to some degree Mayer's WR.

Even JJK's amazing 7291 is still almost 300 point shy of the sum of her PRs....

[26mi235]

Two things. As I recall JJK had two GREAT Heps in that one year, and they were rather different in which events went well for here. I even more vaguely recall that if she could have put together the two performances, she would have hit about 7500. Could someone list two two performances, please.

Second, Hall is weak in the throws but she is best in three event and just barely off (6.61 vs 6.65 and 23.60 vs 23.51) in the other two. Since the scoring gradient is not as 'steep' in the throws, they do not hurt her too much when combined with almost domination of the other five.

And a question: Has Ellenwood recovered enough to be scoring 6100 here; that was a very nasty injury.

[Davidokun]

As I recall JJK had two GREAT Heps in that one year, and they were rather different in which events went well for here. I even more vaguely recall that if she could have put together the two performances, she would have hit about 7500. Could someone list two two performances, please.

I think you're referring to the 1988 Olympic Trials and Olympic Games.

Discipline	OT	Score	OG	Score	À la carte	Score
100H	12.71 -0.9	1168	12.69 +0.5	1172	12.69 +0.5	1172
HJ	1.93 (6-4)	1145	1.86 (6-1¼)	1054	1.93 (6-4)	1145
SP	15.65 (51-4¼)	904	15.80 (51-10)	915	15.80 (51-10)	915
200	22.30 0.0	1150	22.56 +1.6	1123	22.30	1150
LJ	7.00 (22-11¾) -1.3	1172	7.27 (23-10¼) +0.7	1264	7.27 (23-10¼) +0.7	1264
JT	50.08 (164-4)	862	45.66 (149-10)	776	50.08 (164-4)	862
800	2:20.70	814	2:08.51	987	2:08.51	987
Total		7215		7291		7495

[Davidokun]

Has Ellenwood recovered enough to be scoring 6100 here; that was a very nasty injury.

Highly unlikely, but we'll find out soon. She hasn't competed in any of the track disciplines since her return. So that projection is based on three pre-injury performances in the track disciplines, and four post-injury performances in the field disciplines. The former also happen to be personal bests.

Discipline	Performance	Date	Location	Score
100H	13.40 +1.6	19 June 2021	Ratingen	1065
HJ	1.71i (5-7¼)	4 February 2023	Toronto	867
SP	12.32 (40-5)	22 April 2023	Baton Rouge	682
200	24.22 +1.4	29 May 2021	Götzis	960
LJ	6.00i (19-8¼)	11 February 2023	Toronto	850
JT	42.84 (140-7)	22 April 2023	Baton Rouge	722
800	2:11.45	20 June 2021	Ratingen	944
Total				6090

[DET59]

I think you're referring to the 1988 Olympic Trials and Olympic Games.

Discipline	OT	Score	OG	Score	À la carte	Score
100H	12.71 -0.9	1168	12.69 +0.5	1172	12.69 +0.5	1172
HJ	1.93 (6-4)	1145	1.86 (6-1¼)	1054	1.93 (6-4)	1145
SP	15.65 (51-4¼)	904	15.80 (51-10)	915	15.80 (51-10)	915
200	22.30 0.0	1150	22.56 +1.6	1123	22.30	1150
LJ	7.00 (22-11¾) -1.3	1172	7.27 (23-10¼) +0.7	1264	7.27 (23-10¼) +0.7	1264
JT	50.08 (164-4)	862	45.66 (149-10)	776	50.08 (164-4)	862
800	2:20.70	814	2:08.51	987	2:08.51	987
Total		7215		7291		7495

Fantastic Chart David..... even combining those two meets she is still about 100 points shy of the sum of her PRs, but a 7495 would be iin the same % of PR range as was Mayer's 'close to perfection' Decathon WR (98.5%?) I'ts hard to imagine if JJK had had her, to quote Cigar95, "Aren Moment" of perfection and put the record at 7500.

[steveu]

Do those two performances encompass all of JJK's lifetime bests (hept or open), save for the LJ?

[Davidokun]

Do those two performances encompass all of JJK's lifetime bests (hept or open), save for the LJ?

The sum of her lifetime bests:

Discipline	Performance	Date	Location	Score
100H	12.61 +0.2	28 May 1988	San José	1184
HJ	1.93 (6-4)	15 July 1988	Indianapolis	1145
SP	16.84 (55-3)	26 June 1988	Irvine	985
200	22.30 +0.0	15 July 1988	Indianapolis	1150
LJ	7.49 (24-7) +1.3	22 May 1994	New York	1341
JT	50.12 (164-5)	2 August 1986	Houston	862
800	2:08.51	24 September 1988	Seoul	987
Total				7654

[TWalsh]

Simple projections for the Hypomeeting Götzis heptathlon, based on summing scores for season-best performances. If the heptathlete has not yet established a season best in a discipline, then I used her season-best performance from the previous year, and so on. Corrections are welcome.

As always, the primary purpose of these projections is to enhance the fan experience by providing some insight into the actual leaders, who may or may not top the leaderboard early in the competition.

Projected Rank	Athlete	Federation	Projected Score
1	Anna Hall	USA	6909
2	Adrianna Sułek	Poland	6765
3	Anouk Vetter	Netherlands	6589
4	Katarina Johnson-Thompson	UK	6434
5	Paulina Ligarska	Poland	6423
6	Saga Vanninen	Finland	6375
7	Taliyah Brooks	USA	6355
8	Adriana Rodríguez	Cuba	6331
9	Sofie Dokter	Netherlands	6301
10	Sophie Weißenberg	Germany	6281
11	Jana Koščak	Croatia	6208
12	Carolin Schäfer	Germany	6200
13	Maria Huntington	Finland	6187
14	Jade O'Dowda	UK	6186
15	Marys Adela Patterson	Cuba	6146
16	Georgia Ellenwood	Canada	6090
17	Annie Kunz	USA	6044
18	Sarah Lagger	Austria	6024
19	Yuliya Loban	Ukraine	6021
20	Marijke Esselink	Netherlands	5976
21	Vanessa Grimm	Germany	5970
22	Taneille Crase	Australia	5960
23	Sandra Röthlin	Switzerland	5905
24	Celine Albisser	Switzerland	5895
25	Anna-Lena Obermaier	Germany	5858
26	Chiara-Belinda Schuler	Austria	5788
27	Isabel Posch	Austria	5680

Great stuff, David! Excellent event by event analysis! I'm betting my $100 on Annie Kunz to score Over 6044 points!

[Davidokun]

Great stuff, David! Excellent event by event analysis! I'm betting my $100 on Annie Kunz to score Over 6044 points!

Thank you very much. I'm not a gambler, but I wish her—and you—well.