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What Will Happen When Wariner is Pushed?

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  • What Will Happen When Wariner is Pushed?

    We:ve watched the races in this early career - from NCAA comp to world competition. The achievements run long, the times continue to improve. Wariner knows how to win. Now Wariner is learning how to win and run fast alone.

    Wariner tied Michael Johnson for the 2:nd-best margin of victory for a 400m winner under 44,00 seconds with his 1,11-second win over Andrew Rock in Paris. He then set a lifetime best (43,62) and increased his MOV-PB to 1,14 seconds with a victory over Carter in Rome. The only other victory which exceeded this feat was a whopping 1,66-second victory Johnson was able to manage in 1997 in Waco (thanks for those who were able to come up with the 2:nd-placer).

    This begs the question: What will Wariner be capable of running within himself, yet pushed from wire-to-wire in a favourable-condition race? The IAAF report has Wariner talking about getting in a couple more sub-44,00 races this season, and possibly in the neighbourhood of 43,5 - 43,6.

    Originally posted by IAAF
    Wariner estimated that his shut down phase cost him about a tenth of a second –“It could have been 43.81, or maybe .79,” he said—but he didn’t seem to mind. There will be plenty of opportunities later this season for faster times. Perhaps much faster.
    Originally posted by IAAF
    “With the way my training’s been going, I know I can go under 44 another couple of times this season. And hopefully get down to the mid-43s by the end of the season, maybe 43.5 or 43.6. I feel like I can do it, and there may be a chance I can go 43.3. But I’m just going to take it one meet at a time right now.”
    What, honestly, do you feel he can accomplish with respect to time this season and the next 3-4 ahead of him if he is challenged the final 50-60m?

    The all-time best margin of victory sub-44,00 races:

    -1,66 ………. Johnson 43,75 ………. Minor 45,41
    -1,14 ………. Wariner 43,62 ………. Carter 44,76
    -1,11 ………. Wariner 43,91 ………. Rock 45,02
    -1,11 ………. Johnson 43,18 ………. Parrela 44,29
    -1,06 ………. Johnson 43,90 ………. Bada 44,96
    -0,95 ………. Johnson 43,68 ………. Harrison 44,63
    -0,92 ………. Johnson 43,49 ………. Black 44,41
    -0,91 ………. Reynolds 43,29 ………. Everett 44,20
    -0,81 ………. Johnson 43,39 ………. Reynolds 44,20
    -0,82 ………. Johnson 43,88 ………. Reynolds 44,70
    -0,80 ………. Johnson 43,92 ………. Washington 44,72
    -0,76 ………. Johnson 43,66 ………. Reynolds 44,42
    -0,71 ………. Watts 43,50 ………. Lewis 44,21
    -0,67 ………. Johnson 43,76 ………. Washington 44,43
    -0,67 ………. Watts 43,83 ………. Kitur 44,50
    -0,61 ………. Johnson 43,92 ………. Richardson 44,53
    -0,56 ………. Johnson 43,84 ………. Harrison 44,40
    -0,51 ………. Johnson 43,68 ………. Harrison 44,19
    -0,49 ………. Johnson 43,66 ………. Maybank 44,15
    -0,48 ………. Johnson 43,65 ………. Reynolds 44,13
    -0,47 ………. Johnson 43,44 ………. Reynolds 43,91
    -0,47 ………. Watts 43,71 ………. Kitur 44,18
    -0,42 ………. Wariner 43,93 ………. Rock 44,35
    -0,42 ………. Johnson 43,95 ………. Cárdenas 44,37
    -0,38 ………. Evans 43,86 ………. Reynolds 44,24
    -0,38 ………. Johnson 43,74 ………. Reynolds 44,12
    -0,33 ………. Johnson 43,96 ………. Washington 44,29
    -0,27 ………. Everett 43,81 ………. Lewis 44,08
    -0,17 ………. Watts 43,97 ………. Reynolds 44,14
    -0,31 ………. Johnson 43,98 ………. Lewis 44,55
    -0,11 ………. Johnson 43,86 ………. James 43,97
    -0,06 ………. Lewis 43,87 ………. Reynolds 43,93
    -0,05 ………. Reynolds 43,93 ………. Everett 43,98


    (All data with the exception of two records used from pela2 400m statistics)

    Note: Wariner:s victory over Rock was only the 2:nd time in history an athlete had run sub-44,00 and no other athlete was pulled to sub-45,00.

  • #2
    I'll tip 43.45 next season at the latest. Problem is, who's gonna push him?

    Comment


    • #3
      The trouble with 'pushing' is that someone ends up falling down. Have you ever heard the track saying 'Run your own race'? I bet Coach Hart has a race-plan for JW to execute and if he altered it, in response to an 'external stimulus' (a guy in the lane outside him WAAAY out in front), he would NOT run as well. But I will concede that if someone came up alongside JW with 80m to go and tried to pull ahead, JW COULD find another tenth or two to win.

      Comment


      • #4
        That "pushing" by Carter (and, later, dying) from Wariner:s outside led to just what Wariner predicted: 43,5 - 43,6.

        Comment


        • #5
          The question is how much faster can he go this year.In my opinion,non championship years are perfecting for going after the world record.No fear of burning out and ruining your medals chances.He does need to stay healthy but I'm sure that Coach Hart knows what he's doing.I will say he gets down to the 43.3 range this summer.Call me crazy but he is running like a man possesed.Wariner just might break MJ's Record this year.Don't put it past him.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by sprinter4lifetime
            The question is how much faster can he go this year.In my opinion,non championship years are perfecting for going after the world record.No fear of burning out and ruining your medals chances.He does need to stay healthy but I'm sure that Coach Hart knows what he's doing.I will say he gets down to the 43.3 range this summer.Call me crazy but he is running like a man possesed.Wariner just might break MJ's Record this year.Don't put it past him.
            after JW has the jackpot under control and he's still peak, maybe he'll attempt a WR, but there is no one to push....

            so maybe no WR this year...

            Comment


            • #7
              He won't crack up, the other guy will have to beat him. He was pushed hard by Harris in Athens, Wariner dug deep and reeled him. Right now he needs to be off, more than another is on to be beaten.....

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by figo
                after JW has the jackpot under control and he's still peak, maybe he'll attempt a WR, but there is no one to push....

                so maybe no WR this year...
                No one pushed him this year in Texas, either, and he split 43,2...another reason I ask, "What will happen when he has competition down the stretch?"

                Texas Relays video: http://www.milesplit.com/article/8874 (scroll down to "Recently Added" section, Texas Relays 2006 - video is called 06 TR Elite 4x4.

                Comment


                • #9
                  How come I'd not noticed this thread before?!

                  Either way, great stats, EPelle. I think he'll be able to move up to third on the all-time list by the end of this season and perhaps to second next year. He clearly is eventually capable of the world record (provided he continues to progress over the next few years and remains injury-free) - he'll just have to get into that 'perfect race' (Lausanne '08?!) to do it.

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                  • #10
                    Did anyone else notice JW easy up the last 5m in his 43.62. I think he coulda run 43.59 with a run through. Doesnt really matter, great times are coming.
                    phsstt!

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                    • #11
                      I think he will get another .2-.3 this summer...he won't be pushed....there isn't anyone that can push him the final 100m..

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                      • #12
                        He will run fast no matter what, and continue to dominate at his leisure. Xavier Carter is no match for Wariner at 400, and if that's the best comp. that the World has to offer him right now, then he will remain king of this event for years to come.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          When Darold Williamson beat JW at the Drake Relays last year that made him 12-8 all-time against his Baylor teammate. Since then JW has on 7 in a row to go up 15-12. His toughest of historic rivalries is apparently now no longer that.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by LegalizeIt
                            He will run fast no matter what, and continue to dominate at his leisure. Xavier Carter is no match for Wariner at 400, and if that's the best comp. that the World has to offer him right now, then he will remain king of this event for years to come.
                            just a few weeks ago we had a 43.9 wariner against a 44.5 X-man.
                            after the 200 - 19.6 the sky really is the limit for X at the 400...
                            especially if he loses weight.
                            so i'm not so sure x-man can't go mid 43 next year.
                            but wariner keeps moving the bar. mid 43 might not do it.
                            so yes wariner looks good for this year and next.
                            but there is the possibility that X can do what MJ did, next year.

                            then again, if jw icontinues to improve...say by 0.4 sec next year, then MJ himself might be good enough....

                            end of speculation until X runs 43x...

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Yes, it is all speculation. But, just because X ran 19.6 doesn't mean he will be capab le of one day run 43.5. He was running on fumes the last 100m last week - JW had plenty left in the tank. It may turn out that XC's system won't allow him to ever run mid 43s - the race may simply be a 100m too long for him. It may also turn out that JW's system will allow him to run sub 43. We know the race isn't too long for him - infact it may be too short.

                              Just more speculation.

                              Comment

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