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  • London Norwich M-400M

    Up. Wariner in all black adidas body suit, white spikes.

    43,98 is all-comers record. Wariner out good and comfortable. Has traffic at 280m. Down stretch it is Wariner, Rock,

    44,00. Shut-down considerably before line...10m perhaps?

  • #2
    44.00 looking easy - wow!

    Rock in second - but way back.

    I see JW succumbed to the 'cool' look. The jersey had plastic 'suspenders' built into it.

    Comment


    • #3
      Wariner: 43,99 official. Rock: 44,81.

      Comment


      • #4
        i saw him live ( finally ! )

        got good view of back-straight & last curve & then his home-stretch & tried to pay as much attention as possible to detail

        now, i think i got a handle on him... (?) :

        - he has no great "natural" speed - i mean that in the way that you you see some raw, young kid & say : "he's a 20.5 street-kid"

        - i doubt his raw 200 speed was much better than 20.5++

        what the race showed me :

        - he has superb endurance ( you know that )

        - hart has found a way to get his 400 guyz to run close to the "perfect" race in terms of energy distribution/pace judgement ( detour - jw doesn't run curve as well as tyson - even acconting for relative different speeds - jw doesn't have the same "natural lean" of tyson - but then again, i don't think anyone has ! )


        bottom line - he can likely break the 400 record as he can improve his curve & just general strength improvement, but anything significantly below 20 is no-chance ( i e 0.05s in still conditions at low-altitude ) - he doesn't have the basic speed for it

        Comment


        • #5
          eldy ... I love you man, but you are delirious if you think this fellow does not have loads of raw natural speed... you are judging him simply by his lack of heavy muscle.. ... goodness the kid was sub 21 in HS.... he is not the first naturalborn speedster to be relatively light and fluid... look at King Carl, look at Calvin Smith, look at Hines, look at Patton, .. a very good portion of the fastest of the fast were very lightly built... one could just as easily argue that the lighter built speedsters have more natural speed.. or rather all such arguing is nothing but rationalization.

          he is going to drop a sub 20 on us and then you are going to have to go back and swallow the 30odd posts you have made rationalizing how he runs so fast without being so fast...

          lets suppose that he had focused on the 200 since HS...... there would be more than a few sub 20s by now... unfortunately there would likely be no US champion titles. no WC titles and no olympic gold medals... he was as wise as a serpent at 20 to stay the course as quartermiler...
          ... nothing really ever changes my friend, new lines for old, new lines for old.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by paulthefan

            he is going to drop a sub 20 on us and then you are going to have to go back and swallow the 30odd posts you have made rationalizing how he runs so fast without being so fast...


            He needn't even go that far. As has already been discussed on this site, Wariner's 200 PB easily outshines most of the other sub 44.00 400 runners in history. To say JW doesn't have "natural" speed is very curious. Maybe eldy's been brainwashed by the Letsrunners who actually DO seriously believe (horribly misguided as they may) that Wariner should move up to the 800m, based solely on his frame.

            Comment


            • #7
              Eldrick- spot on. Sub 20 may be in the cards but it won't be by much. But, he probably won't need sub 20 to break the WR. His strength from efficiency along with tremendous technical ability, which is getting better with every race, will likely get him there. It appears that he is learning about the distance every time he is out.

              JW potential at 800m is not based solely on his frame - though his frame and lighter weight do add to the potential. His strdie efficiency, and strength the final 50 m. with no indication of strain has to make anyone wonder how far out his range may be. He also trains very hard specificially focused on 400m, (like MJ) so the transition would likely be easier than that of a pure sprinter.

              Comment


              • #8
                Cyril, it is a trueism that a sprinter trained well for the 400 will run the 400 well.. ... trained and focused for the 200 I would imagine that you would have just as illuminating comments about how well he runs the 200... stride efficiency is another of those made up phrases that has little real meaning... it means what you feel it means.. I imagine that you sense that he is light ly built and has a nice stride..

                I would guess that Wariner if he focused on the 100 would be a 10.1 dash man at least.. as was already mentioned his PR for the 200 is better than most of the top 10 on the 400 list... I look forward to reading your comments along with Eldys when he runs sub 20..
                ... nothing really ever changes my friend, new lines for old, new lines for old.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by paulthefan
                  Cyril, it is a trueism that a sprinter trained well for the 400 will run the 400 well.. ... trained and focused for the 200 I would imagine that you would have just as illuminating comments about how well he runs the 200...

                  I would guess that Wariner if he focused on the 100 would be a 10.1 dash man at least.. as was already mentioned his PR for the 200 is better than most of the top 10 on the 400 list... I look forward to reading your comments along with Eldys when he runs sub 20..
                  Paul- I didn't say he couldn't run sub 20 - just not much under 20. But, it appears that his focus is on the 400 so I doubt we'll ever see him step down to seriously focus on the shorter distance. His 200s this year were merely preparation for his true distance. If Hart thought he had MJ type potential at the shorter race they would likely follow MJ's lead and start there first. My guess is Hart sees Wariner's strengths as being a bit different from MJ and he is training and racing accordingly.

                  I'd love to see JW rip a 19.8x but seriously doubt we'll ever see it.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    i believe i know 1 possible conjecture that helps in assessing his 200 ability :

                    for fixed 100 time, a 1.00s off 400 takes off only 0.25s off your 200

                    ( all times being assumed to be absolute best possible )

                    call him a 20.1/43.5 guy for now :

                    take 0.4s off his 400 for a 43.1wr, it only means a 0.1s off his 200 best ( with fixed 100 speed ) & will only get him down to 20-flat

                    i saw live evidence today :

                    he is a "20.5++ kid" who's dragged his pb down to 20.1+ thru his

                    - unmatched endurance work ( hart trademark )

                    - hart's coaching of how to run "perfect" in terms of energy distribution for curves/stretcthes

                    bottom line - even if he smashes 0.4s off his 400pb, it won't be more than 1/4 that decrease in his 200 if his 100 speed is unchanged

                    ( i almost met jw today, & asked him to sign my

                    athletics weekly - but i'm an "ole" guy, & the kidz there were wide-eyed & deserved to be let in & get the signature - i'll one day get a signed autograph from the King himself, so i'm never impatient )

                    from what i saw after his win & appeasing his signature-happy fans:

                    jw is a gentleman

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      you will see it.. but I agree with you he is very well suited to the 400 and a 19.8 doesnt guarantee him anything among his peers... we have three 200 guys that make your jaw drop every time they race.. Gay to me as perfect a strider as there is... Spearmon still has plenty of upside.. Id like to see Wariner race them but he obviously isnt going to (beat the best) be at 200 what he is at 400... and I dont expect that he will be at 800 what he is at 400..

                      but how about a 300 m showdown....... now this would be a great race ..

                      300m

                      Carter
                      Gay
                      Spearmon
                      Wariner
                      Merritt
                      Willie


                      I think Wariner and Spearmon have to be favored
                      ... nothing really ever changes my friend, new lines for old, new lines for old.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by eldrick
                        i saw him live ( finally ! )

                        got good view of back-straight & last curve & then his home-stretch & tried to pay as much attention as possible to detail

                        now, i think i got a handle on him... (?) :

                        - he has no great "natural" speed - i mean that in the way that you you see some raw, young kid & say : "he's a 20.5 street-kid"

                        - i doubt his raw 200 speed was much better than 20.5++

                        what the race showed me :

                        - he has superb endurance ( you know that )

                        - hart has found a way to get his 400 guyz to run close to the "perfect" race in terms of energy distribution/pace judgement ( detour - jw doesn't run curve as well as tyson - even acconting for relative different speeds - jw doesn't have the same "natural lean" of tyson - but then again, i don't think anyone has ! )


                        bottom line - he can likely break the 400 record as he can improve his curve & just general strength improvement, but anything significantly below 20 is no-chance ( i e 0.05s in still conditions at low-altitude ) - he doesn't have the basic speed for it
                        Wrong.

                        JW went 20.4 wind-aided/20.5 legal as a senior in HS. I watched him run down the Texas 5A 100m champ (Edorian McCullough) in the 5A 200m for the win that year. He has plenty of "raw" speed because the kid only took up track in his 10th grade year. He was also a wide-receiver in HS, which a speed position.

                        You'll eat your words in two years when he goes 19.9 the same way that people are eating their words now who said on these boards in 2004 that he would never go below 43.7.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by paulthefan
                          you will see it.. but I agree with you he is very well suited to the 400 and a 19.8 doesnt guarantee him anything among his peers... we have three 200 guys that make your jaw drop every time they race.. Gay to me as perfect a strider as there is... Spearmon still has plenty of upside.. Id like to see Wariner race them but he obviously isnt going to (beat the best) be at 200 what he is at 400... and I dont expect that he will be at 800 what he is at 400..

                          but how about a 300 m showdown....... now this would be a great race ..

                          300m

                          Carter
                          Gay
                          Spearmon
                          Wariner
                          Merritt
                          Willie


                          I think Wariner and Spearmon have to be favored
                          I'm curious as to why you put Spearmon over Carter..........just going of PBs in the 200 and 400 its hard for me to understand your logic

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            i believe spermon just broke the 300 WR this year. But i dont think 300 is considered a WR event. his mark was sth like 30.88 or 31.88

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by dm209
                              Originally posted by eldrick
                              i saw him live ( finally ! )

                              got good view of back-straight & last curve & then his home-stretch & tried to pay as much attention as possible to detail

                              now, i think i got a handle on him... (?) :

                              - he has no great "natural" speed - i mean that in the way that you you see some raw, young kid & say : "he's a 20.5 street-kid"

                              - i doubt his raw 200 speed was much better than 20.5++

                              what the race showed me :

                              - he has superb endurance ( you know that )

                              - hart has found a way to get his 400 guyz to run close to the "perfect" race in terms of energy distribution/pace judgement ( detour - jw doesn't run curve as well as tyson - even acconting for relative different speeds - jw doesn't have the same "natural lean" of tyson - but then again, i don't think anyone has ! )


                              bottom line - he can likely break the 400 record as he can improve his curve & just general strength improvement, but anything significantly below 20 is no-chance ( i e 0.05s in still conditions at low-altitude ) - he doesn't have the basic speed for it
                              Wrong.

                              JW went 20.4 wind-aided/20.5 legal as a senior in HS
                              how's that different from a 20.5++ street kid ?

                              i can't find his exact high school 200 pb - i'd like to see it

                              20.5 in high school doesn't impress when we know of 17y oles running 19.93

                              Comment

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