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  • #31
    Originally posted by eldrick
    i saw him live ( finally ! )

    got good view of back-straight & last curve & then his home-stretch & tried to pay as much attention as possible to detail

    now, i think i got a handle on him... (?) :

    - he has no great "natural" speed - i mean that in the way that you you see some raw, young kid & say : "he's a 20.5 street-kid"

    - i doubt his raw 200 speed was much better than 20.5++

    what the race showed me :

    - he has superb endurance ( you know that )

    - hart has found a way to get his 400 guyz to run close to the "perfect" race in terms of energy distribution/pace judgement ( detour - jw doesn't run curve as well as tyson - even acconting for relative different speeds - jw doesn't have the same "natural lean" of tyson - but then again, i don't think anyone has ! )


    bottom line - he can likely break the 400 record as he can improve his curve & just general strength improvement, but anything significantly below 20 is no-chance ( i e 0.05s in still conditions at low-altitude ) - he doesn't have the basic speed for it
    nice observations....but no way....
    as of now i don't buy the conclusions.
    yes, jw is trained for the 400 and the idea is to distribute the effort and therefore showing max speed at any point defeats the overall objective.

    therefore i assume when running the 200 jw has to go against the 400 mind conditioning of conservation and blast the whole thing...\

    sub 20 is definitely in the cards.
    i'd bet a healthy sum on this....
    but 19.90 ? in say 1.0+ wind at less than 500m altitude,
    sure i bet that too. but that's as far as i'll go.
    i'd expect the 2007 season to be pretty much like 2006.....
    if jw is healthy we'll all know if the 200 is a competitive event rather than a training thing for the 400.

    bottom line here is jw repeatedly puts his money where his mouth is.
    so if jw says he can do the 200 i don't have much ammo to doubt him.

    i mean look at spearmon running 20.1 lately, is he now not capable of 19.8?
    jw 20.2x neg wind says he's not far off spearmon now and into the future.

    i don't doubt jw at 200 but need to be shown when it comes to sub 19.0
    same as x-man, i dont' doubt at the 400. i don't doubt sub 44 but need to be shown sub 43.5...

    Comment


    • #32
      Originally posted by eldrick

      http://www.iaaf.org/statistics/toplists ... index.html

      now, where is this 20.5 as a kid for jw ?

      that list says 20.78

      that put him as only 12th best junior that year over 200 & i'd say his chances of any great senior impact over 200m was slim due to the slowness off that time & lowness on that list

      are you serious, you are taking as a cutoff 11th on a junior list for a cutoff for senior impact... on what do you base that cutoff at... Id have to go back and see what the historical record says.. I would bet that there is little evidence for such a hair splitting and arbitrary cutoff... but you have made up your mind on this and you did so because the overwhelming evidence of seeing him run by a field of senior 400m men in a major race ...hmmm..
      ... nothing really ever changes my friend, new lines for old, new lines for old.

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by joeltetreault
        eldrick, I am confused on how you can make all these conclusions about Wariner based on simply watching him in _one_ race, especially with the evidence of his 200m worth in his high school days
        for a start, i don't rate his junior 200 runs a 20.41 with no wind reading, but listed under "wind aided" in usatf records ( & same year he runs a 20.48 with a =4.5 )

        his best legit run as a junior i can find is 20.59, which frankly doesn't impress me

        as for his 200 based on watching him in 1 race - i saw how smooth he was in running that 43.99 ( i was watching from beside the back-stretch ) - he runs so fast over 400 because he paces it so well, not because of any particularly blistering 200 speed

        earlier in the meet, i saw what "real" blistering 200 speed was - x-man tearing down that stretch desperately trying to catch a tyson who'd just gone out there & run another virtually perfect race & woudn't be caught - this was an almost manic effort by x in trying to catch tyson

        seeing them in the flesh made up my mind ( far more so than watching on tv & that's why i'm glad i went )

        i've seen what it takes to run < 20 & i saw jw run a 43.99 - despite the impressiveness of the latter, it didn't equate to the manic intensity, ferocious footspeed i saw in the former & convinced me from 1st hand viewing he's unlikely to ever break 20, unless he does go to lausanne & get a +1.5 wind behind him - but never in conditions like at london : virtually sea-level & no wind

        Comment


        • #34
          Originally posted by paulthefan
          Originally posted by eldrick

          http://www.iaaf.org/statistics/toplists ... index.html

          now, where is this 20.5 as a kid for jw ?

          that list says 20.78

          that put him as only 12th best junior that year over 200 & i'd say his chances of any great senior impact over 200m was slim due to the slowness off that time & lowness on that list

          are you serious, you are taking as a cutoff 11th on a junior list for a cutoff for senior impact... on what do you base that cutoff at... Id have to go back and see what the historical record says.. I would bet that there is little evidence for such a hair splitting and arbitrary cutoff... but you have made up your mind on this and you did so because the overwhelming evidence of seeing him run by a field of senior 400m men in a major race ...hmmm..
          i gave the 12th position just so that you coud find it easily & also to show it wasn't high on the list

          there is no specific "magic" about 12th on the list or some cut-off

          the one thing i'd say is that for the top juniors in any one year, whether they list top 10,20 or 100, i doubt more than 1 of those woud ever go onto break < 20 in their senior career

          if you are looking for the 1 in that list who may be the candidate for eventual < 20, i'd certainly be looking at someone in the top 5, not someone propping up the bottom in 12th place

          Comment


          • #35
            my experience is that you will find competitive seniors all the way down to 20 or lower... and it is my intuition and experience that even that is driven not by actual talent but by the fact that only a few get the D1 offers that likely lead to further development... I suspect that there are alot of 21.5 types that could go on to sub 20...... but of course I didnt get a chance to see Wariner run past that Norwich field like a man among boys, so take what I say with a grain of salt.
            ... nothing really ever changes my friend, new lines for old, new lines for old.

            Comment


            • #36
              Originally posted by paulthefan
              I suspect that there are alot of 21.5 types that could go on to sub 20...
              i'd have to disagree - there must be dozens of <21.5 juniors/year in europe : britain,france,germany,italy & plenty of them get good opportunity/coaching ( same as in usa elite colleges ), but none of these european juniors have gone onto crack 20, as sniors, in living memory

              Comment


              • #37
                Originally posted by eldrick
                Originally posted by paulthefan
                I suspect that there are alot of 21.5 types that could go on to sub 20...
                i'd have to disagree - there must be dozens of <21.5 juniors/year in europe : britain,france,germany,italy & plenty of them get good opportunity/coaching ( same as in usa elite colleges ), but none of these european juniors have gone onto crack 20, as sniors, in living memory
                well that is certainly true.. my cutoff my be too lenient.
                ... nothing really ever changes my friend, new lines for old, new lines for old.

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by Jacksf
                  Now that I'm digging around, also found this on DyeStat:

                  1) Jeremy Wariner, Arlington Lamar (SR), 20.48w (+4.5)
                  2) Edorian McCullough, Garland North Garland (SR), 20.58w (+4.5)
                  3) Ivory Williams, Beaumont Central (SO), 20.70w (+4.5w)

                  Very close to the 5A boys' 300 hurdles as a meet highlight. McCullough
                  and Williams from the lightning-fast 100, going up in distance, versus
                  Wariner from an impressive 400, coming down. McCullough proceeded to
                  smoke the curve in lane four. Wariner in lane eight looked too far
                  back. Then, rather than make it up all at once with a big burst, he did
                  the 200 equivalent of Gabriela Szabo's controlled catchup from the other
                  year at Prefontaine. Again, the angle from the far side was misleading,
                  suggesting a closer race than the scoreboard subsequently indicated.

                  FYI..McCullough and Williams went 1-2 in the 100m, 10.08 and 10.12 (5.0w).
                  Sounds like Wariner ran down a very speedy guy.
                  That's what I'm saying. I saw that race in person (and video taped it as well) and Wariner simply ran them down. Speed, my brotha, speed. His 46.5 win in the 400m wasn't indicative at all. He blasted a 45.5 in the regionals the meet before that. So I would say the JW definitely has "raw" speed if you can beat the fleetest in the largest Texas division. The boy is real.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    where can we get the video of that 2002 5Astate 200m champ race?
                    ... nothing really ever changes my friend, new lines for old, new lines for old.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      I have no idea, but I did find this shaky video of the 4 x 100 relay at the Big 12 championships.
                      Looks like Wariner running a pretty fast 3rd leg for Baylor in the white.
                      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3hff4Eh ... ch=wariner

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Originally posted by Jacksf
                        I have no idea, but I did find this shaky video of the 4 x 100 relay at the Big 12 championships.
                        Looks like Wariner running a pretty fast 3rd leg for Baylor in the white.
                        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3hff4Eh ... ch=wariner
                        Who's the guy running the anchor leg for the winning team?

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Originally posted by ALLSpeed
                          Originally posted by Jacksf
                          I have no idea, but I did find this shaky video of the 4 x 100 relay at the Big 12 championships.
                          Looks like Wariner running a pretty fast 3rd leg for Baylor in the white.
                          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3hff4Eh ... ch=wariner
                          Who's the guy running the anchor leg for the winning team?
                          I think it's Dusty Stamer, who anchored Nebraska in the Final to the win. - Baylor with Wariner still running 3rd - finished second. Stamer was 4th in the 100 final in 10.68 (-3.7w). He ran 10.21 (2.7w) at Regionals, and a legal 10.27 in the heats. At the NCAAs he ran a PR 10.24 (1.8w), but didn't make the Final.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Originally posted by tafnut
                            Originally posted by ALLSpeed
                            Originally posted by Jacksf
                            I have no idea, but I did find this shaky video of the 4 x 100 relay at the Big 12 championships.
                            Looks like Wariner running a pretty fast 3rd leg for Baylor in the white.
                            http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3hff4Eh ... ch=wariner
                            Who's the guy running the anchor leg for the winning team?
                            I think it's Dusty Stamer, who anchored Nebraska in the Final to the win. - Baylor with Wariner still running 3rd - finished second. Stamer was 4th in the 100 final in 10.68 (-3.7w). He ran 10.21 (2.7w) at Regionals, and a legal 10.27 in the heats. At the NCAAs he ran a PR 10.24 (1.8w), but didn't make the Final.

                            Dusty sure ran the shoes off the Baylor anchor. Looked pretty fast to me.

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Dusty had a pretty good junior year, but he fell off a bit in his senior year.
                              I noticed him in the results of some Scandanavian meets earlier this year, but his times weren't approaching his PR.

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Concerning the many 21.5 high school kids who could advance to sub 20's:
                                Probably 9 out of 10 of the fastest kids in the US, each year, are playing football and basketball, not even running track.?

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