Wariner Wants to Break 43,00

[EPelle]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070504/sp_ ... japan_dc_1

[tafnut]

yeah, and so do a lot of other people, but I don't see it happening till he goes sub-20 first. A sub-43 means sub-21 has to feel 'comfortable'. I don't think he's even close to that now, but in another 4 years, who knows? Merritt or X might be closer. JW is demonstrating the characteristics of someone who has the big picture of what it takes to get there (lots of patience and hard work), so I DO give him the best chance in today's crop.

[EPelle]

tafnut, all those other people behind him need to break 44,00 first! Don:t forget how much over-distance this guy puts in. He:s building (and has built) endurance to last a full 400m without his form breaking down. Running a 21,3 opening 200m won:t kill him, he knows how to relax - yet push - around the curve, and I:m sure he:s working that final 100m "relaxation pace" home in training. A 21,3/21,6 is not out of the question for a guy with decent 200m speed but a whole lot of 400m/500m endurance.

I believe Wariner is a better technician than was Butch Reynolds, so I:ll go on record - this is not even going out on a limb - to say Wariner has that 43,29 within himself hands-down with some luck. Getting past his mentor at 43,18 isn:t too tall an order, again, because I don:t think he:ll have trouble running 21,2/21,9 (43,1) splits. Luck and a great push from any of those athletes you mentioned - on their way to their sub-44,00 - can net Wariner that sub-43,00.

[tafnut]

I like your logic, but JW does not have (yet?) the physical tools of an MJ or X or even LM (IMO). He has to get stronger and faster (200-wise). He COULD get there, but as I said, patience is the key.

As we have seen with the 200s last year, huge chunks of time can be dropped by talented athletes. Look at Reynolds and Watts to see what X or LM could do 'suddenly'.

[EPelle]

Watts was in a world of his own, and has no equal in the "talent" field. Nineteen-year-old Steve Lewis didn:t have the tools to run a 43,87 WJR (200m-wise), but he surprised (everyone but those of us who ran against him week-in, and week-out the two previous years before that feat). Reynolds was a 44,10/20,46 athlete the year before his Zürich race. Don:t see a lot of 200m races in his post-collegian history.

http://www.usatf.org/athletes/bios/oldB ... nolds.html

What Reynolds never did was get back into that territory in a flat race. He tied his 200m best another season, but his 400m never dropped.

We:re talking now about a kid in Wariner who is at 20,19 and is a pace 400m sprinter with endurance! I:m excited about the possibilities at 400m!

I suppose it brings us back to half-swing with this topic:

http://mb.trackandfieldnews.com/discuss ... p?p=292300

[paulthefan]

it is good to see that Wariner is mastering the buzz and pr game (no not the personal record game, THE pr game) .. getting a little shock story out there on the heels of an underwhelming 200 performance helps clear the slate. The next big test will be the addidas classic can he pr in the 200.

[tandfman]

I think JW has it in him. Will he do it? I've no idea, but he's one of the very, very, few guys that I could ever imagine doing it. (Only MJ and Butch come immediately to mind, and of course neither of them ever did it.)

[Kurt Francis]

Wariner will take the record next year down to 43.05-43.15. Within 3 years, Jeremy goes 42.7x

You heard it here first..I'm calling the shot.

Kurt

[tafnut]

Wariner will take the record next year down to 43.05-43.15. Within 3 years, Jeremy goes 42.7x
You heard it here first..I'm calling the shot.
Kurt

I reallyreally hope he does break the WR, but I just can't see it before 2011/12. But then sub-43 is an entirely different matter. I think y'all are severely underestimating what would be required for ANYONE to do it. We were all shocked by all the 19.6s last year, but look how far away they still are from 19.32! It's the same with the 400. Logic dictates that JW should be able to maintain his PR curve downward, but I think it's leveling off more rapidly than youse guys. I can see 43.40 by the end of next year, but then comes the let-down of the post-Oly year and he has to rebuild for the next 3 or 4 to get where you think he's gonna be. Remember that it took a 19.32 guy to get the current WR.

I would be very pleasantly surprised if JW gets near the WR this year or next, but still surprised. (N.B. the 19.6 parade of last year was also a pleasant surprise, so anything is POSSIBLE.)

[EPelle]

Kurt, I don:t think some here are in the section of the bleachers where you have that bat pointed.

[unclezadok]

If Wariner runs the 200m this year on a nice hot day in June with light wind I'm sure he'll go sub-20, just before he has to take cover from the afternoon's tornado..

[tandfman]

I can see Wariner going sub-43 a more easily than I can see anyone breaking the 200m record.

[tafnut]

I can see Wariner going sub-43 a more easily than I can see anyone breaking the 200m record.

which is to say - not at all!

[EPelle]

I can see 43.40 by the end of next year, but then comes the let-down of the post-Oly year and he has to rebuild for the next 3 or 4 to get where you think he's gonna be. Remember that it took a 19.32 guy to get the current WR.

I would be very pleasantly surprised if JW gets near the WR this year or next, but still surprised. (N.B. the 19.6 parade of last year was also a pleasant surprise, so anything is POSSIBLE.)

Good points, and valid.

However, take a look at two seasons ago - the post-Olympic year: Wariner, the Olympic champion with a 44,00-flat PB, runs 43,93 in Helsinki and becomes the World Champion. He also runs a 43,49 anchor leg in the 4x400m. The following year, in 2006, he begins his season with an ungodly split of 43,2 in Austin, and drops his 200m PB to 20,19. Which other athletes in history have been this far ahead this early (age and opportunity) and have had the world:s best technical coach at their side?

Wariner stated last season that he believed he would run 43,5-43,6 (43,3 if lucky). What did he run? A 43,62 with room to spare (and more GL wins to attain) -- a time right within the time goal he had prepared for himself. Wariner could possibly have run that 43,3 if his other prediction came true, namely, "In 2005 I think three of us are going to run under 44" (IAAF).

So far, he:s done what he stated on record that he wanted to do. I am not convinced it takes a fast(er) 200m to knock off his 400m more than it takes a more fluid effort through the turn and power down the straight to maintain his sense of sprinting quickly - AND have stiff competition (two others running under 44,00-pace through 300m) where Wariner is pushed yet focuses only on his own run.

“Right now, we’re working on trying to get more muscle,” Wariner said, adding that he spends three days a week in the weight room. “(Johnson) had a lot more muscle, so he had more strength at the end of the race.”

[Kurt Francis]

I'll stick with my prediction. It is based on the fact that I have yet to see Jeremy run "all-out" in the past couple of seasons. The 43.62 was him at only 95-97%. Couple of seasons more of healthy training and improvement, and he takes the record into la-la-land. Best naturally gifted 400m runner I've seen Lee Evans/Tommie Hines days (albeit I was only 3yo then in '68). The man is a greyhound..sinewy, but built for long, hi-speed runs.

I'll go one further...he does his 42.7x at the 2009 WC.

Kurt