At what height will women's PV top out?

[BillVol]

At what height do the experts think the women's pole vault record will top out? There have been many threads on the "limits" in each TnF event, but I don't think women's PV was ever discussed.

It's sad in a way to think that one day, there will never be any new WRs set in track. The records will be equalled, but never topped. The exciting thing, though, is that we'll never know when we've reached the limits.

But nobody is ever going to pole vault a height equalling the height of the Empire State building. One day, we will hit the wall in all the events.

[tlb747]

I will take a stab at this and say the Women's Pole Vault will top out (it is a possibility) at 17' 5 1/4" in the year 2115.

[Half Miler]

Re: At what height will women's PV top out?

The records will be equalled, but never topped.

???

[tafnut]

Records progress on a curve that does tend to flatten out, but 'never' reaches horizontal, so the quick answer is - never. The rationale is obvious: if one human being can achieve a certain performance, eventually another human being can surpass it, even if only by a very small amount.

[jazzcyclist]

Records progress on a curve that does tend to flatten out, but 'never' reaches horizontal, so the quick answer is - never. The rationale is obvious: if one human being can achieve a certain performance, eventually another human being can surpass it, even if only by a very small amount.

But doesn't that small amount have to be at least 1 cm in order for it to be a new record? What happens when the curve flattens out to the point where the mark 1 cm above it will never be reached?

[tafnut]

Records progress on a curve that does tend to flatten out, but 'never' reaches horizontal, so the quick answer is - never. The rationale is obvious: if one human being can achieve a certain performance, eventually another human being can surpass it, even if only by a very small amount.

But doesn't that small amount have to be at least 1 cm in order for it to be a new record? What happens when the curve flattens out to the point where the mark 1 cm above it will never be reached?

Here's the problem - as the Mile record approached 4:00 in the 30s and 40s, it looked like it was flattening out near 4. If you told someone back then that the Mile record would be at 3:43 before the century closed, they would have thought you completely daft. Or take the Pole Vault. When Warmerdam took the record from below 15' (at the time, that was a HUGE barrier) to over 15'7, most people assumed he had Bubka-ed (anachronistically speaking) the record for the foreseeable future. If you had told someone the record would be over TWENTY feet, they would have locked you up. One of these examples benefited from an unexpected technological advancement (fiberglass), one didn't. My point (laboriously arrived at) is that the records will continue to be broken for as long as T&F remains a sport as we envision it now. It's hard to wrap our brains around that, but we've already had several threads about the fact that we are almost in the age of genetic engineering, where humans can be made better and better. It will NEVER stop.

[BCBaroo]

I will take a stab at this and say the Women's Pole Vault will top out (it is a possibility) at 17' 5 1/4" in the year 2115.

Strangely enough in the year 2116, a woman will come out of nowhere, actually not nowhere, she'll be from the ocean front town of Bakersfield, and she'll vault 17' 7". I have seen the prophecy.

[BillVol]

It will NEVER stop.

But it will stop. Are you saying a sprinter will, eventually (since records will always be broken), run 100 meters in .01 seconds? 1 second? 5 seconds? No way. So, yes, one day we will hit the limit in every TnF event. Even in the pole vault with all of the advances, we will hit a limit. Like I said, to take it to an extreme, nobody is going to pole vault over the Empire State building.

I didn't ask for the year the women's PV would top out, you wise acres. Or from what city she would hail.

I am anxious to hear Becky's input on this topic.

[Halfmiler2]

The big variable, of course, is the potential improvement in the quality of the poles. That is difficult to predict.

[CookyMonzta]

The big variable, of course, is the potential improvement in the quality of the poles. That is difficult to predict.

I would think 5.50, maybe 5.55.

[Mennisco]

Records progress on a curve that does tend to flatten out, but 'never' reaches horizontal, so the quick answer is - never. The rationale is obvious: if one human being can achieve a certain performance, eventually another human being can surpass it, even if only by a very small amount.

But how will they measure it, when we cannot even agree how to separate them to a mere 1/10³ seconds? :P Richard Tater has it right, roll out the transponders! :wink: :lol:

http://www.wearable.ethz.ch/fileadmin/p ... er3_03.pdf

[tafnut]

It will NEVER stop.

But it will stop. Are you saying a sprinter will, eventually (since records will always be broken), run 100 meters in .01 seconds? 1 second? 5 seconds? No way. So, yes, one day we will hit the limit in every TnF event. Even in the pole vault with all of the advances, we will hit a limit. Like I said, to take it to an extreme, nobody is going to pole vault over the Empire State building.I didn't ask for the year the women's PV would top out, you wise acres. Or from what city she would hail.
I am anxious to hear Becky's input on this topic.

You are thinking too small. There are always limits, but then the limits themselves progress when a new variable is introduced. Under CURRENT circumstances, the limit is probably around 17'6, but the current circumstances will change, so it's absolutely POINTLESS to even guess.