London GP men's 400

[eldrick]

jw ran like you expect jw to

lashawn, for a guy with <20 ability ( probably nearer 19.90 ) does still fade a little too much in home-stretch - perhaps indicates he's going out too quick

today he was 1 - 2m up on jw into stretch, but got caught

he needs to sort out his race-pace - he's probably going out too quick - maybe he needs to take his initial 300m slower & have more in reserve for the last 100m

Not sure sub-20 ability has anything to do with being able to hold pace in the stretch in a 400m race....??!
JW was down coming into the stretch at the Olympic Games too. He is just a strong 400m runner.
You cannot predict 400m times based on 200m speed.
If you could, then then all the best 200m runners would be all the best 400m runners, and obviously they are not.

yes your right - i phrased that wrongly

i think better put, if he runs the first 200 slow enough, he still has some of that 19.9 speed to bring into play in last 200

it does appear, utilising that superb 200 speed by going out pretty fast in initial 200 isn't going to beat jw, so if he want's to skin the "jw cat", he needs to sit down & decide which combos of :

slow-fast

he needs to run 0 - 100 / 100 - 200 / 200 - 300 / 300 - 400

( i think you can have upto 3 fast / 1 slow )

btw, you can predict "ultimate" 400 times for 200 guys, providing you have a really well run 300pb

[eldrick]

He's approaching the event in a new way, and he may be redefining it

not really

butch did the same in his 43.29

jw isn't doing anything new

[bad hammy]

I have a feeling in the next few years they [Wariner & Merritt] will be trading wins back and forth

Nope - don't see that at all. Wariner still has a few years at the top of this heap . . .

[jebs]

JW is obviously Clyde Hart's athlete.

Hart believes--and will tell anyone who asks--that having aerobic strength and a race strategy aimed at relatively even splits are the keys to success in the 400.

I remember an interview with him not long ago in which he discussed how he and MJ had developed that strategy together during the latter's career, and pointed out that--even during MJ's world record in Seville--a number of people in the 400 field actually ran a substantially faster first 200 than MJ did.

Hart obviously regarded opening that fast as a stupid strategy, and he said so. His remark was "You will never defeat Michael Johnson in a 400 by beating him to the 200 meter mark."

Which is true. MJ's jets always came on in the turn. When you consider the kind of 200 meter speed he had, you really realize how slow an opening 21.00+ must have felt to him.

JW doesn't have MJ's jets, but he does seem to have MJ's strength. I don't imagine JW worries much about where the other runners are until somewhere around 325.

He may ultimately run into another athlete who can beat him by blazing a hard first 200-300 and then hanging on. But I doubt Merritt has that kind of blazing ability.

[Justin Clouder]

I'm not sure it's fair to say Merritt faded...he ran strongly and with 60 to go I thought he might hold it, but Wariner is awesome down the stretch.

Justin

[George P.]

JW is obviously Clyde Hart's athlete.

Hart believes--and will tell anyone who asks--that having aerobic strength and a race strategy aimed at relatively even splits are the keys to success in the 400.

Sanya Richards is also "Clyde Hart's athlete." At Osaka, she'll be viewing the 400 as a spectator.

There have been many "Clyde Hart's athlete[s]." One of them, Williamson, ran today in the M400. Not exactly overwheming.

Hart can't run the races. JW does that. Give Wariner credit.

[Turk]

[quote=Johnny Walker Red]

JW will run one second faster in Osaka...

Not happening. Ever.

Wariner will probably get the WR in the next couple of seasons. Merrit is the one who will never go faster than 43.7 unless he makes some extreme changes. Wariner has so many doubters, then each year...[/quote:c6t3llm2]

Its not that I doubt Wariner's ability to run fast, I doubt his ability to run THAT fast. I can see him going under the WR, barely, but nothing under 43.10. And I'm also in the minority on this point, but I think Merritt will surprise alot of people in the next few years and will give JW a few defeats. With proper pacing, and years of building the tools, I can see Merritt going just as fast as Wariner.

[Mennisco]

Its not that I doubt Wariner's ability to run fast, I doubt his ability to run THAT fast. I can see him going under the WR, barely, but nothing under 43.10. And I'm also in the minority on this point, but I think Merritt will surprise alot of people in the next few years and will give JW a few defeats. With proper pacing, and years of building the tools, I can see Merritt going just as fast as Wariner.

Sooner or later, a lot of guys will beat Wariner.

[jebs]

JW is obviously Clyde Hart's athlete.

Hart believes--and will tell anyone who asks--that having aerobic strength and a race strategy aimed at relatively even splits are the keys to success in the 400.

Sanya Richards is also "Clyde Hart's athlete." At Osaka, she'll be viewing the 400 as a spectator.

There have been many "Clyde Hart's athlete[s]." One of them, Williamson, ran today in the M400. Not exactly overwheming.

Hart can't run the races. JW does that. Give Wariner credit.

My point was to illustrate that JW's race tactics are clearly the ones that Hart prefers, and that JW's conditioning is obviously an outgrowth of the program Hart uses. I did not intend to give Hart all the credit for JW's success nor did I intend to imply that all Hart's athletes will be stellar all the time.

I think Sanya Richards can be forgiven for being ill before the USATF's and therefore having few preparatory races under her belt.

And Darold Williamson is NOT Clyde Hart's athlete, nor has he been for a while. His coach of record is Michael Ford, who is a current assistant at Baylor. However, Darold Williamson, when he was winning in the NCAA was a pretty good example of what I am talking about: an exceedingly strong runner who produced a relatively even paced race compared to many of the speed-trained guys he competed against.

This approach is not unique to Hart, but I think you could refer to it as his "stamp" so to speak, inasmuch as he has one.

[xxx]

Everyone is focusing on Merrit but I say Angelo Taylor is the primary threat to Wariner. I'm a big JW fan but he's going to have to P.R. to beat Taylor in Osaka.

[Cyril]

[
Sooner or later, a lot of guys will beat Wariner.

Obvious but true....very likely later.

[eldrick]

Everyone is focusing on Merrit but I say Angelo Taylor is the primary threat to Wariner. I'm a big JW fan but he's going to have to P.R. to beat Taylor in Osaka.

well,

lashawn threw the kitchen sink at him today ( poorly paced ), so, unless he finds a karpovian strategy, he's not going to beat jw

seeing as angelo was pretty damn fortunate to nip lashawn, not sure angelo will threaten...

( i think both guys needed to run 43.7 - 43.8 at trials to worry jw - 44.0+ won't do the job )

[xxx]

Everyone is focusing on Merrit but I say Angelo Taylor is the primary threat to Wariner. I'm a big JW fan but he's going to have to P.R. to beat Taylor in Osaka.

well,

lashawn threw the kitchen sink at him today ( poorly paced ), so, unless he finds a karpovian strategy, he's not going to beat jw

seeing as angelo was pretty damn fortunate to nip lashawn, not sure angelo will threaten...

( i think both guys needed to run 43.7 - 43.8 at trials to worry jw - 44.0+ won't do the job )

I was sitting at the finish line when Angelo "nipped' Merrit and I must say, it was no "nip," rather, it was all heart. While I agree with you that JW remains the heavy favorite (and for good reason), I'm still impressed by how game Taylor is in big moments.

I still consider his Olympic victory from Lane 1, one of the more remarkable achievements in recent memory.

[eldrick]

"heart" isn't going to "nip" jw who probably is going to be in ~ 43.5 ( low-altitude golden league meet, shape - god knows how quick that'll be in osaka )

angelo/lashawn need to find a "basic" low-altitude/non-greased lightening track, 43.4 strategy, to even think about the win...

[Mennisco]

[
Sooner or later, a lot of guys will beat Wariner.

Obvious but true....very likely later.

Glad someone got my point.