Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

“Seriously, what Tergat did in Berlin has made the possibility of a two hour Marathon quite logical. I cannot believe it will be long before such a time is run.” - Haile GEBRSELASSIE

See his interview at
http://www.iaaf.org/athletes/Athlete=87 ... index.html

Nice short interview with H. Gebrselassie.

Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

Easy to say. A bit harder to do...

[dl]

Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

I don't believe anyone reading this board will see a sub-2:00 marathon in their lifetime.

Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

I believe we will have a sub 2:00 marathon by 2050, maybe by 2030.

You are looking at taking the pace down from 4:48 per mile to 4:34 per mile.

Over the last 40 years the WR pace went from 5:10 per mile to 4:48 per mile an improvement of 22 secs per mile.

If we have improved 22 secs per mile over the last 40 years than improving another 14 secs over the next 30-50 years seems possible.

I am 34 years old (turning 35 soon) and since I am in good shape I should live (in theory and God willing) another 50 years, I hope to be around for the fist sub 2:00 marathon.

Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

<I don't believe anyone reading this board will see a sub-2:00 marathon in their lifetime.>

Though I do not see a sub 2:00 marathon in the near future, your note (dl) suggests either and/or

(1) No one under age 30 or so, reads these threads.
(2) T&F (and in particular the marathon) will be "abandoned" in the next half century or so.

The WB has dropped over seven minutes in ~40 years, and I see no overwhelming reason why another 5 minutes will not come off in 40-60 years.

Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

"Ultrarunner" - I see you beat me to the punch. I agree with your views, and good luck in living to see the first sub 2:00 marathon. At 60+, I don't expect to make it "there".

Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

Here is a little more one the WR progression in the marathon. A little more precise on the calculations.

At the end of each decade here is the WR marathon in terms of pace per mile:

1910 6:12 per mile pace
1920 5:50
1930 5:41
1940 5:36
1950 5:33
1960 5:10
1970 4:54
1980 4:54
1990 4:50
2000 4:48
2003 4:46

A 1:59:59 would calculate out to a 4:35 per mile pace.

I would expect a sub 2:00 marathon between 2030 and 2050.

Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

or for the metric minded a 1:59:59 matahon is 2:51 per kilometer. Current WR is 2:58 per kilometer.

Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

well, projecting is interesting....

but certain physiological barriers surely exist...

and a sub 2 marathon needs another model to grasp what it means...

Johnson's 200 meters in 19.32 is a standard which most of us feel will stand for a very long time...

to run a sub 2:00 and project the 11 second per mile improvement needed ONTO the 200 meters would mean and 18.58 200 meter would result...

Now, let me emphasize the 200 METER 19.32 is far closer to physiological limits than the current marathon...

My view is each second per mile you get closer to the 2:00 barrier, the MORE difficult the NEXT second becomes.

[dl]

Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

No, I was suggesing that no one reading this board (most likely no one under 14 or so) will live long enough to see a sub-2:00. It's no great statement, just my belief.

If you've got Paul Tergat, one of the greatest distance runners of all time, running a 2:04:55 marathon in perfect conditions, imagine what it'll take for someone to run 5 minutes faster. So if I die before it happens, I win! :-)

Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

<My view is each second per mile you get closer to the 2:00 barrier, the MORE difficult the NEXT second becomes.>

And this has been "allowed for" in many of the threads. Linear projections would suggest sub 2:00 within the next 30 years - not too likely in my opinion.

<but certain physiological barriers surely exist...>

They surely do, but is it around 2:00 for the men's marathon? And if so what is it for the women's marathon?

Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

<If you've got Paul Tergat, one of the greatest distance runners of all time, running a 2:04:55 marathon in perfect conditions, imagine what it'll take for someone to run 5 minutes faster.>

If Geb trained specifically for the marathon, forsaking all other distances, the WB would be even lower. Not 5 mins faster though.

Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

All prognosticators make the same mistake. They extrapolate known numbers for future ones based on 'business as usual.' Track in the next 20-30 years will NOT be business as usual. With all the recent breakthroughs in gene therapy and manipulation, we will see quantum drops in performance. EPO and the like will be small potatoes. I'm not saying that everyone will be drugged to the gills; I'm saying human physiology will be dramatically enhanced through artificial means. Designer genes (oh, that's a pun!) will make the heretofore unthinkable, eminently doable. I will see sub-2 in MY lifetime and I'm already 52.

[michael lewis]

Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

"I believe we will have a sub 2:00 marathon by 2050, maybe by 2030"

I think you underestimate the current pace of technological development.

Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

I think that now there are 3-5 athletes able running near 2:03. One of them is Haile, for others we must await the top 10k runners, currently very young, like Bekele (already he ran fast 15k, but till he is the top specialist in 10000 is difficult that he can move to longer distance : but, beeing an Ethiopian, and having Abebe Bikila like model, everything is possible...), Nicholas Kemboi (but also for him I want to await 5 years before moving to marathon), John Yuda, or some other coming from shorter distances. I don't think that a mathematical trend can be accepted. Too many are the variants for using a mathematical model. The most important is the evolution of technology, pushed to massive levels by our advanced society also in African Countries. So, if the number of people running at top level is at the moment increasing, and so it happens that there're more athletes than in the past, the reality is that in Kenya and other countries (like Uganda and Tanzania) the areas where the running activity is yet part of the life are always smaller. In Kenya, nobody in the area of Nairobi runs, and the only athletes come from Rift Valley. But 30 years ago also around Nairobi normal people used running for moving from one place to another.
So, the trend is that running is going to become an activity for balancing a sedentary life, good for health but not having the goal to improve at max. possible levels your performance. Life of today in our countries doesn't permit a preparation for top levels, that is to train twice per day, running 40 km, using a lot of time in training and in recovering, WITHOUT ANY EARN AT THE BEGINNING OF YOUR ACTIVITY. So, if you are an African countryman you can use your time for running without changing your life, but if you are a young man living in western countries, nobody helps you in becoming a PROFESSIONAL RUNNER before having the advantages that you can have only AFTER PERFORMING LIKE A PROFESSIONAL RUNNER.
So, I think that the analysis of Haile is not correct. I await 2:03 into 2010, then I don't know what type of athletics can exists in the World.