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Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

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  • #31
    Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

    "The question is will the men break 2:00 before the women break 2:10?"

    Very interesting question which requires a time machine to answer.

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    • #32
      Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

      Eldrick, running is not mathematics. The consumption of fuel moving to longer run doesn't follow a linear trend. This one is a problem connected with physiology, not with mathematics.
      See, for example, the engine of a car.
      Do you think that ( considering for example 7 different speeds : 30 km/h - 60 km/h - 90 km h - 120 km/h - 150 km/h - 180 km/h - 210 km/h ) put in arithmetical progression, the consumption of fuel can follow the same line ?
      So, don't make confusion among mathematics and phisiology. The first is an inductive science, the second a deductive, because can study only what really happens (AFTER, non before).

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      • #33
        Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

        Eldrick, running is not mathematics. The consumption of fuel moving to longer run doesn't follow a linear trend. This one is a problem connected with physiology, not with mathematics.
        See, for example, the engine of a car.
        Do you think that ( considering for example 7 different speeds : 30 km/h - 60 km/h - 90 km h - 120 km/h - 150 km/h - 180 km/h - 210 km/h ) put in arithmetical progression, the consumption of fuel can follow the same line ?
        So, don't make confusion among mathematics and phisiology. The first is an inductive science, the second a deductive, because can study only what really happens (AFTER, non before).

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        • #34
          Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

          Exactly. We can do all sorts of fun (and funny) things with numbers. However, for better or worse, life can't be captured in an equation.

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          • #35
            Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

            i am aware of physiology - i am an MD

            distance running is an anaerobic exercise,with not too dissimilar speeds (a 14'30 5k & 2"15'00 M have respective speeds ~ 5.74 & 5.20m/s),so the comparison between car speeds with speeds ranging by a factor of 7 is not really appropriate

            in distance running,athletes are just sensibly adjusting their pace with increasing distance races,so that they can to as close to a maximum level for the whole distance - basic maths can help you decide what that pace should be based on data gathered from previous races.

            i also would try the method before deciding it's not something you wish to follow up

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            • #36
              Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

              Eldrick-

              Interesting post. And, while, as Mr. Casanova points out, running is not math, your correlations and extrapalations which are based on current athletic statistics are very believable.

              Of course, it is hard to extrapolate psychological considerations or the fact that the longevity of a world class athlete only allows for a limited number of years at peak performance. The limited time issue makes it more difficult for an athlete to pay their dues at high level in the 5/10 before switching to the marathon. The time left at peak-age in the marathon is limited allowing the athlete little time for injury or lost training.

              The numbers you posted seem quite believable (except perhaps Geb's potential to run 2:01).

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              • #37
                Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

                i have no disagreement at all with the psychological factors & limited peak years.

                i posted this because people speculate a lot about what athletes can run for various distances & this is a method you can try

                interestingly,i don't believe gebre & tergat have produced anywhere near the M times they should have - gebre has not translated his current 26:29 ability to the M, & if he does concentrate fully on the M in the next couple of years(apparently next year he will run 10k in athens),i do expect him to smash the WR.

                bear in mind that sammy korir has no fast times on the track (not even a 13:00/27:10 guy i believe) & he can run a 2"04:56 - so i don't see why a runner like geb shouldn't be able to run minutes quicker

                if your interested,i've been posting lots of predictions for almost a year using this method.there are some quite surprising results! (the only athlete for whom i didn't get good figures for is el guerroge - the reason being is that his 3:26.00 is so good compared to even his other WR's that it gives poor predictions - but i've worked around that & can give better figures for him)

                http://www.iaaf.org/community/forums/Li ... icID=14368

                as an addendum,you can use the same method to get a prediction for what a race run at uneven splits(basically most distance races)would have been if run evenly gun to tape at the optimum pace

                http://www.iaaf.org/community/forums/Li ... icID=15400

                for instance if you've got a 3:50 miler,with an 800m split of 1:50/1:51/1:52,etc,you can get a prediction for what that guy could theoretically have run if he had run evenly from gun to tape (spivey may be interested) - i'll post it later if anyone's interested

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                • #38
                  Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

                  Eldrick-

                  As I mentioned above I think your figures are quite good. Out of cusiosity, what do you come up with for El G. in a 5 - off of the straight graph for his 15/mile (without any subjective adjustments)? Since he has just started to "dabble" in the 5 - these figures that may appear too far fetched - may be possible given a couple more years to master the distance as he's done in the 15. Also Geb's chances at 2:01-2:02 may not be as far fetched as they origninally sounded if he is able to give the race a few more healthy attempts in the next couple of years. Especially considering the fact that he is still close to his best form by evidence of his great WCs race and world leader last summer.

                  This formula is very intriguing and may be a good coaching tool helping to establish training ranges, pacing goals and assess event potential.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

                    People seem to forget that to reach these 'limits' and 'barriers' the human body would be put under serious pressure both mentally and phsyically.
                    Just a few examples;

                    Physical/Bodily Pressure;
                    Mo's 9.82s 2001 WCH Men's 100m final. Torn Quadricept, Pulled Hamstring & Inflamed Tendinitis in his knee at around 75 or 80m into the race (15-20m from the finish).

                    MJ's 19.32s 1996 OG Men's 200m final.
                    Pulled Hamstring (he says in 'Slaying The Dragon' that his hamstring was burning)
                    at around 190-195m (5-10m from the finish).

                    Mental exhaustion;
                    Bob Beamon's 8.90m 1968 OG Men's Long Jump. After this he had a seizure (he was overcome by the fact that he had jumped pass both barriers of 28ft & 29ft barriers in a single jump)

                    There are many more examples of how these barriers can affect the human body (system), but you guys know how 'it operates'.

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                    • #40
                      Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

                      What a fascinating insight which clearly gets overlooked when considering limitations to human performance.

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                      • #41
                        Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

                        Haile unlikely!

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                        • #42
                          Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

                          Man has PROVEN that he can overcome virtually any challenge thought heretofore 'impossible.' The 2:00 Marathon or the 9.70 100 are just arbitrary limits that we make up. Given that man, as we understand him, will not run a 1:00 Marathon or 8.00 100, the 'limits' that we are expressing here are NOWHERE near man's capabilities.

                          Given that that the 7' HJ was relatively recent, didn't the 8' jump look pretty improbable at the time?

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                          • #43
                            Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

                            >serious marathon (i know geb has run 331 for 1500, but he probably lost some of
                            >that speed before he ran his 206 marathon.) so i think sub 2 is unlikely.

                            i'm going to attack this statement:

                            as renato said: you don't lose speed by training for the marathon; you lose speed by not wroking on speed. and actually marathon training (which haile has essentially been doing all his life) helps to train your fast-twitch fibers to have a hgiher aerobic capacity than normal. that combined with the improved fitness and strength that comes with preparation improves your ability at all distances.

                            see radcliffe's 3000m best after her first marathon and before her second.

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                            • #44
                              Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

                              coach/cyril

                              el g's figures are difficult to predict because his 3:26.00 is so much better than his other times (even the 3:43.13)

                              using those figures you get

                              ~ 1:40+, 2:11+, 7:30 & 13:10

                              one reason for the relative poorness for his mile record is that he has run about 5 or 6 times as many 1500's as miles,so he has had much fewer opportunities to run a fantastic time (consider the fact that his 1500m difference from morceli is 1.37s whereas the mile is only 1.26s & it is even worse when you consider the respective differences against ngeny)

                              by trial & error,the best range i get for a mile time for him is in the 3:42.40 - 3:42.50 range,which combined with his 3:26.00 ->

                              1:43.28 - 1:43.72, 2:12.02 - 2:12.37, 7:17.41 - 7:19.23, 12:40.22 - 12:45.22

                              because the 1500 & mile distances are so close together,just a tiny difference in the mile time extrapolates to a huge difference at other distances

                              note also hichi is no longer a 3:26.00 guy - he has lost some speed & i think nowdays at best he is now more likely a 3:28.00 guy. to get predictions for him nowdays,you need to combine this kinda time with something like a flat out 3k time (unfortunately he only ran an exhausted,end-of-season 7:30 this year) - we will probably have to wait till after athens for him to run a serious 3k,as he wants the 1500 gold

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Re: Haile says 1:59:59 Marathon Possible?

                                and on the subject of sub-2hr, I think you'll need to see the 10000m record into the 25s first.

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