Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

AOY Sanchez? You must be joking!

Collapse

Unconfigured Ad Widget

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #31
    Re: AOY Sanchez? You must be joking!

    >Numerical analyses like the IAAF's never get it right, except in the rare cases where an athlete is so dominant there is no question (a Guevera or Sanchez).
    >Here's their 100 top 10:

    1. (1.) Kim COLLINS 76 SKN 1347
    2. (2.) Justin
    >GATLIN 82 USA 1343
    3. (3.) Bernard WILLIAMS 78 USA 1340
    4. (4.) Deji ALIU
    >75 NGR 1325
    5. (5.) John CAPEL 78 USA 1323
    6. (6.) Dwain CHAMBERS 78 GBR
    >1320
    7. (7.) Mark LEWIS-FRANCIS 82 GBR 1282
    8. (8.) Maurice GREENE 74 USA
    >1281
    8. (8.) Uchenna EMEDOLU 76 NGR 1281
    10. (10.) Darrel BROWN 84 TRI
    >1275 >>

    I think the IAAF Rankings are sucky compared to TFN also, but using the 100 is a bad example because the IAAF also factors in the indoor 60. In most events, the parallels between the IAAF and TFN are amazingly close. IAAF just ends up with a lot more bizarre choices.

    Comment


    • #32
      Re: AOY Sanchez? You must be joking!

      Felix wouldn't have been my choice - I'd have gone with Bekele (but that's partly based on his World XC double, which T&FN doesn't take into consideration). But it's Mutola winning AOY that I have a real problem with... As mentioned before, she might have been dominant in her event, but it was very possibly the least competitive of all standard events this year. No other woman ran under 1:57 this year, for crying out loud. Mutola had one fast time, and most of her wins were very lacklustre 1:58s and 1:59s. IMO, it should be between these women for AOY:

      - Carolina Kluft - world champion indoors and out, unbeaten in multi events, became no. 2 on the all-time list indoors and no. 3 outdoors, best results in the world since 1992 (!) both indoors and out, plus top-class results in individual events (especially 6.86 in LJ while winning the European U23 title)

      - Hestrie Cloete - was beaten on a couple of occasions early in the season, but ended up being very dominant when it really mattered in what was the most competitive women's event this year, winning all the important competitions and moving to no. 3 on the world all-time list with 2.06

      - Berhane Adere - world titles indoors (3000 meters) and outdoors (10000 meters), winning the highest-quality race of the year (Paris 10000). Moved to no. 3 on the all-time list at 10000, no. 2 at 5000, and also ran the second fastest ever 3000 and 5000. Also won silver at the World half marathon champs

      - Ana Guevara - unbeaten, set the fastest time in the world since 1996 (no. 8 all-time)

      Paula Radcliffe could be added to the list, but with only one race takes into consideration, I can see why she could be disregarded.

      In any case, to me, Mutola's season record pales into insignificance compared to any of the above women. Feel free to disagree.
      Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

      Comment


      • #33
        Re: AOY Sanchez? You must be joking!

        "Feel free to disagree."

        And to agree. Too bad the panel didn't see things as clearly.

        Comment


        • #34
          Re: AOY Sanchez? You must be joking!

          "Berhane Adere - world titles indoors"

          Does T&FN give weight to indoor performances? If so, since when? And how do 60m sprint and hurdles figure into the equation, or do they?

          Comment


          • #35
            Re: AOY Sanchez? You must be joking!

            It seems pretty clear to me that a significant chunk of the TFN voters were swayed by Mutola's winning the Golden League jackpot.

            If I were a voter I'd also give her credit for having the year's longest unbeaten streak; twice as long as Guevara's for example.

            Comment


            • #36
              Re: AOY Sanchez? You must be joking!

              Winning streaks depend on who you run against... You could have a HS athlete who only competed in HS competitions with a winning streak as long as Mutola - does that mean he/she should win AOY ?

              Of course Mutola did run against the best in the world, but the point is the competition there was MUCH weaker in relative terms than in HJ or 5000/10000 meters. You can't really compare athletes across events on winning streaks. You can compare them on the relative quality of their performances (as measured, for instance, by their places in the all-time lists).

              BTW, I would put Sureyya Ayhan ahead of Mutola, too. In my books, her marginal loss in the WCh (her only loss of the year) in a very fast and competitive race was worth more than Mutola's gold in the most forgettable race of the championships. And the rest of the Turk's season was pure magic.
              Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

              Comment


              • #37
                Re: AOY Sanchez? You must be joking!

                To give you an idea of how thinking tended to be all over the map in the women's AOY choice this year, I went back and looked at the ballots of the four T&FN editorial staffers.

                There were two choices for Cloete as No. 1 and one each for Mutola and Guevara. And if you totalled the points given by the four of us: a 4-way tie among Mutola, Guevara, Cloete and Klüft!

                Comment


                • #38
                  Re: AOY Sanchez? You must be joking!

                  >>Does T&FN give weight to indoor
                  >performances? If so, since when? And how do 60m sprint and hurdles figure
                  >into the equation, or do they?>>

                  Yes, and we have for a "long time." But we don't include events that are "different," meaning no 60, 60H or Pentathlon/Heptathlon. Nor do we give any credit for wins at distances of a mile or less, because the nature of small tracks turns those events into "different" ones as well. In other words, the only place indoor marks have a significant impact is on the field events and in the 3000. But even in all those, a WIC win is only worth a fraction of what the outdoor version is.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Re: AOY Sanchez? You must be joking!

                    Yes, and
                    >we have for a "long time." But we don't include events that are
                    >"different," meaning no 60, 60H or Pentathlon/Heptathlon.

                    I understand you don't use them for EVENT rankings, but don't medals in these 'different' events still count for the purpose of AOY voting ?
                    Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Re: AOY Sanchez? You must be joking!

                      >I understand you don't use them for EVENT rankings, but don't medals in these 'different' events still count for the purpose of AOY voting ?>>

                      No; the ballot form includes the seasonal record to be judged, which is based solely on World Rankings criteria. No "different" indoor events, no cross country, no road other than the marathon.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Re: AOY Sanchez? You must be joking!

                        And if you're interested in how T&FN's editorial staff voted on the men's side, there were three No. 1s for Sánchez and one for Cherono. In terms of points we had it 1. Sánchez; 2. Cherono; 3. El Guerrouj; 4. Olsson.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Re: AOY Sanchez? You must be joking!

                          One of the fun things about the annual balloting is that it's like a race, but not quite. We all come to the show with our opinions about who we'd like to see win, but unlike a race or other competition it's harder to immediately be at peace with the results when they aren't aligned with our expectations. And, like an actual race, once it's over, that big fat lady has done her song folks. So enjoy!

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Re: AOY Sanchez? You must be joking!

                            One bias that I do see constantly with the rankings - and that has sort of been brought out by others is that of the "undefeated season" .. It seems to be automatically assumed that to be undefeated is to be THE BEST of the best ..

                            Ayhan's season is a perfect example ... While she had a narrow loss in the biggest meet, that was her only loss, she beat everyone in site, and had an awesome sequence of marks ... But getting outleaned made her season marginal in the eyes of the voters ...

                            The other bias is the length of the "unbeaten streak" ... Sure Mutola had more "wins" than Guevara ... But the quality of the marks put up by Guevara was clearly superior to Mutola ... And the competition was I would say marginally better - although Guevara clearly ran away from the field ...

                            As for the men's sprints if Kenteris can rarely race and garner a #1 ranking, then any World or Olympic sprint champion should be able to garner a #1 given the rest of their season is more heavily weighted with wins than losses ... UNLESS another individual has clearly dominated him/her over the course of the rest of the season ... But all other things being fairly equal a World/Olympic champ should get the nod - especially given the very slim margin of error provided by the sprints ...

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Re: AOY Sanchez? You must be joking!

                              Exactly. And think about this - Mutola ran both faster and more consistently in 1997 than in 2003 (SB 1:55.29 and 6 times under 1:57, compared to 1:55.55 and only one more sub-1:57), but on the first occasion didn't even make the AOY top 10, while on the second she was voted no. 1. The only thing that made her 2003 season appear better was that she had no Ana Quirot to face. It made no sense to punish her in the rankings for having tough opposition in 1997, and it makes no sense to reward her for having it easy in 2003.
                              Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Re: AOY Sanchez? You must be joking!

                                David:

                                I agree with the selection of Sanchez as AOY. Your mention of his "weak competition" is accurate, but his lack of a "World Record" is irrelevant.

                                Sequence of marks is worth "much less" according to T&FN. If you average the top marks for each event, Sanchez barely misses the top 10 while El G barely makes it for a slight advantage to El G.

                                I used T&FN to determine that Sanchez's win-loss vs. the top 10 is 38 - 0, while El G's in 1500 - 5000 is 33 - 2. Slight advantage to Sanchez.

                                "(H)onors alone can outweigh the other two critera" according to T&FN, so lets look at honors:

                                Golden League (including GP Final) wins = 3
                                each.
                                Other GP wins: Sanchez = 6 (including Pan Am G)
                                El G = 3 (including indoors)

                                Losses: Sanchez = none
                                El G = WCh 5000(2) & Ostrava GP(2)

                                T&FN also states that "emphasis on actually winning" is important in honors, so although El G would have been #1 IF HE HAD WON THE WCH 5000--HE DIDN'T.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X