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A sub 1:40, you do the math

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  • #16
    Re: A sub 1:40, you do the math

    Take a look at world record stamina:

    Coe 1:41.73/46.87 = 2.170
    Kipketer 1:41.11/46.85 = 2.158

    So, you want someone with Coe or Kipketer stamina (2.17-2.15) and ... 46.0-46.5 speed. Of course, you can have a faster quarter miler with poorer stamina, but I doubt you will find any human with greater 800/400 stamina.

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    • #17
      Re: A sub 1:40, you do the math

      I am pretty impressed with the formula. For me, it came within 0.2 seconds of my 800m PR.

      As for not working for Cram and Aouita, it should be noted that it is best applied to athletes who ran both the 400 and 1500 competitively and at times close to their adult peak. If a runner's PR in the 400 comes from his Freshman year of high school, it does not fit the formula well.

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      • #18
        Re: A sub 1:40, you do the math

        Recently, I remember hearing that Coe had run a 45.5 Can't remember where I heard it - will try and find it again.

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        • #19
          Re: A sub 1:40, you do the math

          Seb Coe's father/coach (Peter) has stated at Seb was capable of going under 45.00 in the 400m if he ever trained for it for the season.

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          • #20
            Re: A sub 1:40, you do the math

            just using actual PRs.

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            • #21
              Re: A sub 1:40, you do the math

              So we are looking for 3:30 1500m runner with 45.0 400m speed or more likely a 3:28 1500m runner with 45.6 400m speed. Morcelli had to be close.
              But a 44.0 400 runner with 3:32 stamina is not likely.

              We may not be as far away as we think.
              The hard thing is we don't have legit 400m PRs for many 1500m guys as they never run them in competitions.

              Coe was darn close (rumored 45 split in a relay).
              Ovett was close (supposed 21 speed in the 200).

              I'm confident we will have 1:40 broken by 2020, maybe by 2010.

              But a sub 2:00 marathon is more likely a 2020 to 2030 event.

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              • #22
                Re: A sub 1:40, you do the math

                Borzakovskiy will hit 3.37 in the next two years, and, coupled with his 44,xx relay speed, we might witness a 1.40,xx in 2005 - 2006. We will see a solid race result, with even splits and a tight finish for the record-setter, hitting:

                12,2, 12,4 (24,6), 12,5 (37,1), 12,6 (49,7) (24,6/25,1), 12,5 (1.01,8), 12,4 (1.14,2) (24,9), 12.6 (1.26,8), 13,0 (1.39,8) (25,6) (49,7/50,1).

                This is not unfeasible, nor is it unlikely the race will be evenly distributed and evenly-paced.

                The record-setter will never be able to repeat this kind of race, but perhaps will be able to fly and die to a similar time after the initial 1.39,9.

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                • #23
                  Re: A sub 1:40, you do the math

                  i'll see if i can get any decent figures

                  to obtain a 1:42.00 time for various 400m times,the likely 1k,1500m & mile times using method posted

                  44.00 -> 2:13.13, 3:35.05, 3:53.59

                  44.50 -> 2:12.73, 3:33.35, 3:51.56

                  45.00 -> 2:12.32, 3:31.65, 3:49.53

                  45.50 -> 2:11.92, 3:29.95, 3:47.50

                  46.00 -> 2:11.52, 3:28.25, 3:45.47

                  46.50 -> 2:11.12, 3:26.55, 3:43.44

                  47.00 -> 2:10.71, 3:24.85, 3:41.42


                  from this it looks fairly obvious that taking 1500m ability into account,any guy trying to run 1:42.00 needs at least sub - 47 speed

                  it's not really worth me bothering trying these calculations for 1:41.00 or even 1:40.00 as 1:42.00 is tough enough to achieve!

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                  • #24
                    Re: A sub 1:40, you do the math

                    >Since Kipketer ran his WR by himself, for the most part, it might be
                    >interesting to see what happens with a couple of guys that fast having a
                    >Coe-Ovett type rivalry.

                    Kipketer had guys on his tail for most of the distance in his record runs (never mind rabbits taking him farther than 400, not so for others). Look at his second record - the Cuban kid (can't recall his name) was on him until the final straight, when he locked up and dropped out. Coe was the one who actually ran alone for the most part. He was on his own the last 400 of his records.

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                    • #25
                      Re: A sub 1:40, you do the math

                      I mean no disrespect, but whoever said Kipketer ran his 800m WR "by himself" hasn't seen the tape. Kipketer did not lead until 580m into the race, where he took over from the pace maker (David Kiptoo, I think).

                      By contrast, when Coe ran 1:41, he passed Konchella (sp?) around the first turn of the last lap.

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                      • #26
                        Re: A sub 1:40, you do the math

                        in defense of Will: it was 16y after coe's run & the very least we could have expected after all those years were the existence of pacemakers who could take him thru to 600m (simple progress)
                        also in Will's 1:41.23 he was dragged thru the bell in a suicidal 48.2!!!
                        to run his WR after that lap was stupendous & he was capable of much quicker than 1:41 during his peak year

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                        • #27
                          Re: A sub 1:40, you do the math

                          i'll see if i can get any decent figures

                          to obtain a 1:42.00 time for various 400m times,the likely 1k,1500m & mile times using method posted

                          44.00 -> 2:13.13, 3:35.05, 3:53.59

                          44.50 -> 2:12.73, 3:33.35, 3:51.56

                          45.00 -> 2:12.32, 3:31.65, 3:49.53

                          45.50 -> 2:11.92, 3:29.95, 3:47.50

                          46.00 -> 2:11.52, 3:28.25, 3:45.47

                          46.50 -> 2:11.12, 3:26.55, 3:43.44

                          47.00 -> 2:10.71, 3:24.85, 3:41.42


                          from this it looks fairly obvious that taking 1500m ability into account,any guy trying to run 1:42.00 needs at least sub - 47 speed<<

                          Perhaps, but the above is not accurate. Coe ran 46.86/1:41.73/2:12.18

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