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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Re: A sub 1:40, you do the math

    i'll see if i can get any decent figures

    to obtain a 1:42.00 time for various 400m times,the likely 1k,1500m & mile times using method posted

    44.00 -> 2:13.13, 3:35.05, 3:53.59

    44.50 -> 2:12.73, 3:33.35, 3:51.56

    45.00 -> 2:12.32, 3:31.65, 3:49.53

    45.50 -> 2:11.92, 3:29.95, 3:47.50

    46.00 -> 2:11.52, 3:28.25, 3:45.47

    46.50 -> 2:11.12, 3:26.55, 3:43.44

    47.00 -> 2:10.71, 3:24.85, 3:41.42


    from this it looks fairly obvious that taking 1500m ability into account,any guy trying to run 1:42.00 needs at least sub - 47 speed<<

    Perhaps, but the above is not accurate. Coe ran 46.86/1:41.73/2:12.18

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  • eldrick
    replied
    Re: A sub 1:40, you do the math

    in defense of Will: it was 16y after coe's run & the very least we could have expected after all those years were the existence of pacemakers who could take him thru to 600m (simple progress)
    also in Will's 1:41.23 he was dragged thru the bell in a suicidal 48.2!!!
    to run his WR after that lap was stupendous & he was capable of much quicker than 1:41 during his peak year

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  • trackhead
    replied
    Re: A sub 1:40, you do the math

    I mean no disrespect, but whoever said Kipketer ran his 800m WR "by himself" hasn't seen the tape. Kipketer did not lead until 580m into the race, where he took over from the pace maker (David Kiptoo, I think).

    By contrast, when Coe ran 1:41, he passed Konchella (sp?) around the first turn of the last lap.

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Re: A sub 1:40, you do the math

    >Since Kipketer ran his WR by himself, for the most part, it might be
    >interesting to see what happens with a couple of guys that fast having a
    >Coe-Ovett type rivalry.

    Kipketer had guys on his tail for most of the distance in his record runs (never mind rabbits taking him farther than 400, not so for others). Look at his second record - the Cuban kid (can't recall his name) was on him until the final straight, when he locked up and dropped out. Coe was the one who actually ran alone for the most part. He was on his own the last 400 of his records.

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  • eldrick
    replied
    Re: A sub 1:40, you do the math

    i'll see if i can get any decent figures

    to obtain a 1:42.00 time for various 400m times,the likely 1k,1500m & mile times using method posted

    44.00 -> 2:13.13, 3:35.05, 3:53.59

    44.50 -> 2:12.73, 3:33.35, 3:51.56

    45.00 -> 2:12.32, 3:31.65, 3:49.53

    45.50 -> 2:11.92, 3:29.95, 3:47.50

    46.00 -> 2:11.52, 3:28.25, 3:45.47

    46.50 -> 2:11.12, 3:26.55, 3:43.44

    47.00 -> 2:10.71, 3:24.85, 3:41.42


    from this it looks fairly obvious that taking 1500m ability into account,any guy trying to run 1:42.00 needs at least sub - 47 speed

    it's not really worth me bothering trying these calculations for 1:41.00 or even 1:40.00 as 1:42.00 is tough enough to achieve!

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Re: A sub 1:40, you do the math

    Borzakovskiy will hit 3.37 in the next two years, and, coupled with his 44,xx relay speed, we might witness a 1.40,xx in 2005 - 2006. We will see a solid race result, with even splits and a tight finish for the record-setter, hitting:

    12,2, 12,4 (24,6), 12,5 (37,1), 12,6 (49,7) (24,6/25,1), 12,5 (1.01,8), 12,4 (1.14,2) (24,9), 12.6 (1.26,8), 13,0 (1.39,8) (25,6) (49,7/50,1).

    This is not unfeasible, nor is it unlikely the race will be evenly distributed and evenly-paced.

    The record-setter will never be able to repeat this kind of race, but perhaps will be able to fly and die to a similar time after the initial 1.39,9.

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Re: A sub 1:40, you do the math

    So we are looking for 3:30 1500m runner with 45.0 400m speed or more likely a 3:28 1500m runner with 45.6 400m speed. Morcelli had to be close.
    But a 44.0 400 runner with 3:32 stamina is not likely.

    We may not be as far away as we think.
    The hard thing is we don't have legit 400m PRs for many 1500m guys as they never run them in competitions.

    Coe was darn close (rumored 45 split in a relay).
    Ovett was close (supposed 21 speed in the 200).

    I'm confident we will have 1:40 broken by 2020, maybe by 2010.

    But a sub 2:00 marathon is more likely a 2020 to 2030 event.

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  • trackhead
    replied
    Re: A sub 1:40, you do the math

    just using actual PRs.

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Re: A sub 1:40, you do the math

    Seb Coe's father/coach (Peter) has stated at Seb was capable of going under 45.00 in the 400m if he ever trained for it for the season.

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  • Jon
    replied
    Re: A sub 1:40, you do the math

    Recently, I remember hearing that Coe had run a 45.5 Can't remember where I heard it - will try and find it again.

    Leave a comment:


  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Re: A sub 1:40, you do the math

    I am pretty impressed with the formula. For me, it came within 0.2 seconds of my 800m PR.

    As for not working for Cram and Aouita, it should be noted that it is best applied to athletes who ran both the 400 and 1500 competitively and at times close to their adult peak. If a runner's PR in the 400 comes from his Freshman year of high school, it does not fit the formula well.

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  • trackhead
    replied
    Re: A sub 1:40, you do the math

    Take a look at world record stamina:

    Coe 1:41.73/46.87 = 2.170
    Kipketer 1:41.11/46.85 = 2.158

    So, you want someone with Coe or Kipketer stamina (2.17-2.15) and ... 46.0-46.5 speed. Of course, you can have a faster quarter miler with poorer stamina, but I doubt you will find any human with greater 800/400 stamina.

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Re: A sub 1:40, you do the math

    The formula is not an exact science. It's just something that came out of trial and error. But it should be noted that Aouita did run 12:58 (5000) and would gain more from the aerobic side than the others. It works for most 800 m runners. I'll get working on one that takes the 5 km guys into account. There are not many Aouita's out there, so there is always an exception to the rule (like anything in life). He did say that he did more speed work leading into 88. Cram was noted for not having much speed. This was evident in the way in which he raced. He always liked to build it up from a long way out.

    OK so the formula has a few floors. Lucky for you, that you didn't have to pay for it.

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Re: A sub 1:40, you do the math

    Other examples of my formula 400t x 2/3 plus 1500t x 1/3 projecting 800m PR


    J.Barbosa 45.9 217.04 102.9466667 (103.08PR)
    S.Cram 49.01 209.67 102.5633333 (102.9PR)
    P.Elliott 48.2 212.69 103.03 (102.97PR)
    N.Kiprotich 45.8 218.76 103.4533333 (103.31PR
    I.VanDamme 46.4 218.26 103.6866667(103.86PR)
    W.Wulbeck 47.83 213.74 103.1333333 (103.65PR)
    M.Mutola 51.37 241.6 114.78 (115.19PR)<<

    Cram ran a 1:42 despite having never broken 49 seconds for 400 meters???

    That seems rather hard to buy...

    By this formula, btw, Aouita's 400 PR should be 51.06...Which strikes me as horseshit, given that he ran a 1:43...

    Leave a comment:


  • The King
    replied
    Re: A sub 1:40, you do the math

    >What are Kipketer's 4 and 15 PRs?


    Kipketer's PRs for the 400m & 1500m are 46.85s (1994)and 3m:42.80s (1993) respectively.
    He also has a 3m:59.57s mile to his credit from Stockholm in 1993.

    There's loads on info. about the 800m and 'it's athletes' at this site;
    http://www.800m.cjb.net/

    Leave a comment:

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