US Men's Marathoning - the worst 10 months ever?

[26mi235]

Of course, it is only October and almost 10 months before the games, so there will be time to obtain qualifiers unless the USATF is brain-dead in this regard. However, I fully expect the top three to be under the standard, even on this somewhat tough course, especially with generally favorable weather.

[tandfman]

The latest weather forecast suggests that it won't be easy out there.

Saturday: A chance of rain, mainly before 10am. Partly cloudy, with a high near 55. Breezy, with a north wind between 16 and 22 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night: Clear, with a low around 41. Northwest wind between 9 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 57.

The temperature won't be bad--probably still in the 40's when the race is run early Saturday morning. But the wind could be an issue. There's some wind protection from the trees in the park, but it's still outdoors, and it could be pretty tough running right into the wind, which I believe they will be doing in the first few miles of the race and then every time the course heads north, which it will every lap.

If this forecast holds up, I don't think we'll see fast times.

[RMc]

I was meaning that you can do all the projecting from smaller distances and long training ones you want, but I don't see it as good tactics to try to make the Oly team in your debut at a race that demands so much of your body. Forewarned is forearmed.

And the followup corollary, having a great first marathon doesn't necessarily carry over to the sophomore effort. In fact it's a coin toss whether or not you'll ever run that fast again.

Looking a bit closer at the list (and dropping 2006 & 2007 performances) we can see the expected difference in age. If the runner was younger than 26 at their debut, then 64% improved, older than 25, only 43% improved. On the other hand, no one who debuted at 26 improved, but 4 of 5 who debuted at 27 improved. Ryan Hall is 24.

[26mi235]

The forecasted winds had been increased to projected to be much stronger, about 30mph with gusts to 44, but now they have revised again to 21-23 with gusts of 36.

[malmo]

I was meaning that you can do all the projecting from smaller distances and long training ones you want, but I don't see it as good tactics to try to make the Oly team in your debut at a race that demands so much of your body. Forewarned is forearmed.

And the followup corollary, having a great first marathon doesn't necessarily carry over to the sophomore effort. In fact it's a coin toss whether or not you'll ever run that fast again.

Looking a bit closer at the list (and dropping 2006 & 2007 performances) we can see the expected difference in age. If the runner was younger than 26 at their debut, then 64% improved, older than 25, only 43% improved. On the other hand, no one who debuted at 26 improved, but 4 of 5 who debuted at 27 improved. Ryan Hall is 24.

As I said, a coin toss.

If you randomly flip a coin 30 times. there is a high probability that it will come up heads between 13 and 19 times (43 and 64 percent).

[26mi235]

"If you randomly flip a coin 30 times. there is a high probability that it will come up heads between 13 and 19 times (43 and 64 percent)."

Normally, yes, but....look out for that (white) noise creeping up.