Bejiing Women's Marathon Odds : Very Odd

[eldrick]

thought this deserved a topic of it's own :

http://www.williamhillmedia.com/index_t ... ?file=9007

according to them they seem to have :

zhou evens

paula 3/1

i'd suggest paula fans get their fiver on now - her odds will only get shorter

[mike renfro]

Remember her problems with heat and air quality in '04? Bejing will likely be as bad, or worse. My guess would be a Chinese runner, Zhou probably, but not necessarily.

[nevetsllim]

Remember her problems with heat and air quality in '04?

Zhou was 33rd in Athens so that proves she might be vulnerable in Beijing.

[mump boy]

Remember her problems with heat and air quality in '04? Bejing will likely be as bad, or worse. My guess would be a Chinese runner, Zhou probably, but not necessarily.

paula didn't have problems with the heat in athens she had intestinal problems brought on by anti inflamatory drugs she was taking. they prevented her body from digesting any food. i would suggest that she wasn't in the best psychological state either.i'm sure she won't have that problem again and has shown that she can run in heat on many occasions

[26mi235]

[quote=mump boy]

Remember her problems with heat and air quality in '04? Bejing will likely be as bad, or worse. My guess would be a Chinese runner, Zhou probably, but not necessarily.

paula didn't have problems with the heat in athens she had intestinal problems brought on by anti inflamatory drugs she was taking. they prevented her body from digesting any food. i would suggest that she wasn't in the best psychological state either.i'm sure she won't have that problem again and has shown that she can run in heat on many occasions[/quote:1scux2n5]

She has shown that she can run in the cold even better (e.g., the championship win in super time in the rain). On balance, I think that she is relatively better in cool weather, although her body probably cools relatively well. Note that an efficient runner has an advantage in the heat in that they generate less heat for a given speed than less efficient runners. This could be important in Beijing.

[Jon]

[quote=26mi235]

Remember her problems with heat and air quality in '04?

paula didn't have problems with the heat in athens she had intestinal problems brought on by anti inflamatory drugs she was taking. they prevented her body from digesting any food. i would suggest that she wasn't in the best psychological state either.

She has shown that she can run in the cold even better (e.g., the championship win in super time in the rain).[/quote:29nfcz8j]Mump boy is right.

Paula is good in both hot and cold conditions. She won world 10,000m silver in Seville '99 with a British & Commonwealth record. She improved on that one year later in Sydney. She then won the World Half Marathon Champs in Veracruz and again three years later in Vilamoura. On top of that, she set the world 10km record in San Juan. All great performances, all in hot places.

Yes, the conditions in Beijing will come into play, but she doesn't need to worry about the heat more than any other marathoner should. And I can't believe some people still think it was the conditions in Athens that proved to be the downfall of Paula :roll:

[malmo]

Re: Bejiing Women's Marathon Odds : Very Odd

thought this deserved a topic of it's own :

http://www.williamhillmedia.com/index_t ... ?file=9007

according to them they seem to have :

zhou evens

paula 3/1

i'd suggest paula fans get their fiver on now - her odds will only get shorter

I'm surprised at you eldrick? Both are accurate odds projections. Think it through and you'll agree with me that you've just had a major "duh!" moment.

[eldrick]

Evens is pretty ridiculous odds for Zhou. 2/1 maybe, but Evens ??

Zhou didn't even beat Cathy in Osaka, & Paula has beaten Cathy decisively in every race they've ever competed in together.

I can't believe Evens is a fair reflection of her chances despite being a past winner on the course, ? course-record holder, Chinese main hope & may even drop a coupla minutes of her PB by then ( flat course/paced race )

[nevetsllim]

Zhou has never won the Beijing Marathon. She has been third on three occasions.

The only time which Paula and Zhou have met (and both have finished) was at the 2005 World Champs, when Paula won and Zhou was 5th.

[malmo]

Evens is pretty ridiculous odds for Zhou. 2/1 maybe, but Evens ??

Zhou didn't even beat Cathy in Osaka, & Paula has beaten Cathy decisively in every race they've ever competed in together.

I can't believe Evens is a fair reflection of her chances despite being a past winner on the course, ? course-record holder, Chinese main hope & may even drop a coupla minutes of her PB by then ( flat course/paced race )

Think, eldrick, THINK.

[eldrick]

are you alluding to an initial book with wildly fluctuating odds ?

even if that was so, in britain, no bookie woud ever dare offer 3/1 on paula as an opener ( maybe more like the evens of zhou & then drift paula out to 3/2 & then 2/1 to get a "bite" ) - she's so well loved here, that straight away, with 3/1, you'd be probably get a few thousand housewives putting £5 ( ~ $10 ) on her within a few days, with an already 6-figure liability

[malmo]

Which country has gambling deeply steeped in their culture? The bookmakers are correctly pricing anticipated money flow towards the Chinese runners, with no return that could possibly reflect the risk.

Additionally I believe PR is much more probable to bomb completely in an OG than to win a medal.

BTW, she looked as efficient as ever on Sunday, but very, very Dachau.

[eldrick]

Good point.

I forgot that Chinese can bet on-line with a British bookie if they so wish :idea:

Like you say their domestic bookies are probably offering 1/3 on Zhou & 5/1 on Paula, so they'll all flood the British bookies with their money

[marknhj]

I wouldn't put a dollar on PR in the Olympics and will be very surprised if she wins.

Surely, eldy, as bookmaker's business involves making money, luring as many non-T&F fans as possible into making a sentimental bet is a damn sensible strategy?

[gh]

I don't gamble (nor do I have any inclination to do so), so I have no first-hand experience with this, but I'm told that if you are willing to play a long game and live on a thin margin you can overall make money on American football simply by betting against the NY City teams.

The theory being that there are so many New Yawkahs, and so many who bet with their hearts sted of their heads that the line is always artificially shifted that way just enough. Malmo, I suspect you know a bit about this.