Bejiing Women's Marathon Odds : Very Odd

[Flumpy]

personnally, i don't see radcliffe winning in beijing....looks like a dnf to me

I like your logic :roll:

[26mi235]

zhou was 2nd in osaka, and i expect weather conditions to be more like osaka, plus more pollution...

add in zhou will be very acclimated to whatever conditions exist in beijing, while radcliffe will be adapting...

is RADCLIFFErunning a SPRING marathon, or is BEIJING her next one...

don't count out the japanese runners neither...think athens for the example...

to me, the key is radcliffes willimgness to make a tactical adjustment, NOT just hammering from the start, with everyone running off her...

personnally, i don't see radcliffe winning in beijing....looks like a dnf to me

Unless she is physically unable to continue I expect PR to finish, even if she has to slow to 2:30+++ to do so.

The Japanese runners always seem to be ready to run at the Championship meets; Beijing will not be any different, especially being just across 'the sea'.

[az2004]

isn't beijing race a part of the marathon series too...

i'd root for radcliffe to do well, but conditions aren't on her side...

she's reasonably big, compared to many other elite racers, and heat dissipation and hydration are tougher for her...

we shall see....

although i'd bet a few bob on her in 2012 !!!

[nevetsllim]

isn't beijing race a part of the marathon series too...

i'd root for radcliffe to do well, but conditions aren't on her side...

she's reasonably big, compared to many other elite racers, and heat dissipation and hydration are tougher for her...

we shall see....

although i'd bet a few bob on her in 2012 !!!

Like we've said time and time before, Paula has a good reputation in warm weather. Athens had nothing to do with the heat, she said that even if it had been 2C, she would have been crap. She won two of her world half-marathon titles in hot weather, it was debilitating in Seville and it might have been hot in Marrakech in 1998, when she won silver.

Her Athens mishap will make her stronger. She'll be more wiser when it comes to preparing.

Besides which, I'd hardly describe the majority of the top 8 finishers in Osaka (Ndereba, Zhou, Tosa, Zhu, Simon, Shimahara, Jeptoo and Masai) as being small.

[eldrick]

she's reasonably big, compared to many other elite racers, and heat dissipation and hydration are tougher for her...

not sure if that's right

if you increase length ( height ), your surface area increases as the square, so she has proportionately more surface area to dissipate core heat compared to a short gal

of course, this also means more surface area to absorb surrounding heat & she'll need to increase her relative hydration to a short gal ( but that just means drink more on-route )

on balance, i think her greater height is probably an advantage in hot conditions

[malmo]

she's reasonably big, compared to many other elite racers, and heat dissipation and hydration are tougher for her...

not sure if that's right
...
on balance, i think her greater height is probably an advantage in hot conditions

You're balancing heat production, which is proportional to body mass, against heat dissipation, which is proportional to surface area. Since mass(volume) increases with the cube of the radius, and surface area only increases with the square of the radius, it should be clear that weight (and heat production) will increase faster than the heat dissipation properties afforded by surface area.

Additionally, much of heat dissipation occurs in at the top surface of the body, the head and shoulders, which also contains the organ of the body (the brain) which is most affected by heat.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/quer ... t=Abstract

Advantages of smaller body mass during distance running in warm, humid environments.

Marino FE, Mbambo Z, Kortekaas E, Wilson G, Lambert MI, Noakes TD, Dennis SC.

Human Movement Studies Unit, Charles Sturt University, Bathurst, NSW, Australia. [email protected]

The purpose of this study was to examine the extent to which lighter runners might be more advantaged than larger, heavier runners during prolonged running in warm humid conditions. Sixteen highly trained runners with a range of body masses (55-90 kg) ran on a motorised treadmill on three separate occasions at 15, 25 or 35 degrees C, 60% relative humidity and 15 km x h(-1) wind speed. The protocol consisted of a 30-min run at 70% peak treadmill running speed (sub-max) followed by a self-paced 8-km performance run. At the end of the submax and 8-km run, rectal temperature was higher at 35 degrees C (39.5+/-0.4 degrees C, P<0.05) compared with 15 degrees C (38.6+/-0.4 degrees C) and 25 degrees C (39.1+/-0.4 degrees C) conditions. Time to complete the 8-km run at 35 degrees C was 30.4+/-2.9 min (P<0.05) compared with 27.0+/-1.5 min at 15 degrees C and 27.4+/-1.5 min at 25 degrees C. Heat storage determined from rectal and mean skin temperatures was positively correlated with body mass (r=0.74, P<0.0008) at 35 degrees C but only moderately correlated at 25 degrees C (r=0.50, P<0.04), whereas no correlation was evident at 15 degrees C. Potential evaporation estimated from sweat rates was positively associated with body mass (r=0.71, P<0.002) at 35 degrees C. In addition, the decreased rate of heat production and mean running speed during the 8-km performance run were significantly correlated with body mass (r=-0.61, P<0.02 and r=-0.77, P<0.0004, respectively). It is concluded that, compared to heavier runners, those with a lower body mass have a distinct thermal advantage when running in conditions in which heat-dissipation mechanisms are at their limit. Lighter runners produce and store less heat at the same running speed; hence they can run faster or further before reaching a limiting rectal temperature.

PMID: 11211124 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
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For purposes of thermal comfort analysis, skin surface area can be estimated using the following formula (the Dubois surface area):

A= 0.202*M^0.425*L^0.725

Where A is surface area [m^2], M is mass [kg], and L is height [m]

or

A= 0.108*M^0.425*L^0.725

Where A is surface area [ft^2], M is mass [lbm], and L is height [in]

According to this scaling law, doubling weight increases skin surface by 34%.

[az2004]

isn't dissipation of heat also related to the ambient humidity, the greater the moisture content of the air, the more difficult the dissipation thru sweating as the bodies sweat needs to be more agrressively sponged off...

the other factor is the pollution in beijing, and the relative impact on any runner...

we can't measure that exactly for any runner, but it's gonna affect the race...

[eldrick]

isn't dissipation of heat also related to the ambient humidity, the greater the moisture content of the air, the more difficult the dissipation thru sweating as the bodies sweat needs to be more agrressively sponged off...

following on from malmo's post, humidity will exacerbate the taller runners' heat dissipation disadvantage

paula will want the lowest humidity possible that day

[malmo]

isn't dissipation of heat also related to the ambient humidity, the greater the moisture content of the air, the more difficult the dissipation thru sweating as the bodies sweat needs to be more agrressively sponged off...

following on from malmo's post, humidity will exacerbate the taller runners' heat dissipation disadvantage

paula will want the lowest humidity possible that day

On the plus side for Paula, I was struck by how Dachau she looked. I think they are taking this anorexia thing a bit too far.

[eldrick]

i wondered what that previous "dachau" reference was !

from basic physics, they are going for the kinetic energy advantange :

vomiting up some possible numbers :

if she was 2"20 & weighed 120 in previous Ms, if she came in at 118 ( retaining "full power" ), her time woud be from physics ~

2"20 * (118/120)^0.5 =

~ 2"18'49

it's certainly an avenue worth exploring !