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  • Noguchi or Radcliffe?

    A dangerously good return to form (2:21) for the 2004 Champ in the Tokyo marathon - I have a horrible feeling that she has the beating of Paula in Beijing.

    Any thoughts from anyone?

  • #2
    If Paula reaches the startline in good form (2:15 is a bit hopeful, but no reason why she can't replicate her 2005 form from Helsinki), I think she could win it. Noguchi will have to be in her best shape to beat Radcliffe because if it comes down to a neck-and-neck finish, Radcliffe is not going to let anyone out-kick her (and Noguchi doesn't seem to be much of a kicker anyway).

    If Noguchi wants to win it, she'll need to find form good enough to gradually break away from Paula with, say, 5km to go.

    I was very impressed with Noguchi's form too. Beijing should be a great race - especially with Ndereba and Zhou in the mix too!

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    • #3
      I agree with all of your points - and yes, it will be an absolute cracker....

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      • #4
        OK, I'll play the American optimist and say that Deena could be in the mix.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by tandfman
          OK, I'll play the American optimist and say that Deena could be in the mix.
          I certainly wouldn't put it past her.

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          • #6
            Noguchi or Radcliffe?

            Zhou!

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            • #7
              as far as i'm concerned (and with 9 months to go) this the race of the OG. obviously from a UK pov it's all about paula's redemption but look at the cast

              paula
              noguchi
              ndereba
              zhou
              wami
              any other JAP or CHN
              adere

              i do feel that an in form paula is unbeatable but we said that before athens :cry:

              I accept that geta may not have been in top form in NY having run a marathon 5 weeks b4 and she also had an eye on the big prize but paula destroyed her at the finish and sprinting at the end of a marathon is completely different than on the track. if everyone gets to the start line in shape and geta or birhan are there at the end then it will be close but everyone else has to run away from paula and that is something no-one has ever done before (i'm not inculding athens as paula was in no state to race)

              i'm over excited already !!!!!!!
              i deserve extra credit

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              • #8
                Unlike the women's marathon in Osaka, I think picking the medallists will be much harder as the quality will be so much higher. This could probably be one of the most loaded marathons in history with Radcliffe, Ndereba, Adere, Wami, Tosa, Noguchi, Kastor, Zhou and Johnson (maybe Kiplagat), not to mention two more Kenyans (Kosgei and Jeptoo most likely), two more Chinese, another Japanese, another Ethiopian plus the Russians and Romanians are always a threat.

                Depending on what the course is like, Radcliffe will have a tough time trying to burn off Noguchi if there are hills, but I'll take a stab at an early stage, and call Radcliffe, Noguchi and Zhou as the three medallists (not necessarily in that order).
                http://twitter.com/Trackside2011

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by nevetsllim
                  I'll take a stab at an early stage, and call Radcliffe, Noguchi and Zhou as the three medallists (not necessarily in that order).

                  Very sensible picks but how can anyone leave out Catherine???

                  I don't know who I'd throw out to make room for her but I see no reason to believe she won't be amongst the medals.

                  If everyone gets to the startline fully fit, common sense says that Paula has to be the favourite but in the Marathon anything can happen.

                  It's all too exciting.

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                  • #10
                    Of course, Catherine will be one of the favourites and it'll be no surprise if she was to win the gold medal, but maybe she is no longer in sub-2:20 shape, compared to Zhou and Noguchi, who seem to be at that sort of shape this season (and undoubtedly Paula, if she can run 2:23 on a tough course, with 10 wks running). Ndereba hasn't ran a fast marathon since 2005, nor has she run sub-70 for a HM but she will always be well prepared and she will always be a threat, and I won't write her off.
                    http://twitter.com/Trackside2011

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by nevetsllim
                      Of course, Catherine will be one of the favourites and it'll be no surprise if she was to win the gold medal, but maybe she is no longer in sub-2:20 shape, compared to Zhou and Noguchi, who seem to be at that sort of shape this season (and undoubtedly Paula, if she can run 2:23 on a tough course, with 10 wks running). Ndereba hasn't ran a fast marathon since 2005, nor has she run sub-70 for a HM but she will always be well prepared and she will always be a threat, and I won't write her off.
                      catherine seems to concentrate on champs races so maybe hasn't gone for times recently but that doesn't mean she's not in 2.20 form. The OG race is unlikely to be 2.20 anyway so it may come down to who is the best racer and nobody has a better champs record than catherine the great
                      i deserve extra credit

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                      • #12
                        if bezunesh bekele run a marathon before may and is selected for ethiopias marathon team she can win, she finished 4th in the half marathon worlds and yesterday she beat lorna kiplagat in a 15k her small size (about 4 feet 7 inches and 80 pounds) will help her in the marathon, she has improved greatly this year and she is the youngest of the women mentioned so far. and her nickname is china, so hopefully she will do well there.

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                        • #13
                          a few others of interest kyoko fukishi has run some fast half marathons and the japanese seem to consider the marathon the main race for their runners 5 and 10k runners in japan are often doing it off of marathon training. also for the usa kara goucher ran high 106 for the half and her coach (alberto salazar) was best at the marathon, and goucher could run the trials with her 10k time.

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                          • #14
                            Goucher's plan is to run on the track, not the marathon, I think.

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                            • #15
                              I pick Tosa for third or better, no matter what. That woman is the definition of "can do". Only Julie Moss is up on her.

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