Hypothetical Kluft

[Jon]

Re: Hypothetical Kluft

>"I suspect we'll have 3 Olympiads to enjoy her athletic skill."

At least.
>JJK competed in 4 and was 22 in her first outing in LA. Carolina will be 21
>this year. And if the event morphs to a decathlon soon enough, this former
>part-time pole vaulter may be around even longer. We can surely hope!



Those who have amazing careers as a junior don't often compete into their veteran years (of course, Ottey and Drechsler are one of the very few exceptions), but something tells me that Kluft may not be competing at the top into her mid-thirties (a la JJK).

JJK had some modest performances as a junior, and then progressed in her early 20's. Basically: start later, finish later; start earlier, finish earlier. In JJK's fourth Olympics (Atlanta), she was 34 years-old (she also tried to qualify for Sydney at 38 years old!!!). JJK was a one-off and had a long and distinguished career.

Kluft has got 3 Olympics in her, I reckon, and possibly a fourth.

2004 - she'll be 21
2008 - 25
2012 - 29
2016 - 33 - she'll possibly be over the hill by then, but if she's still about and if she qualifies, then she'll probably be there.

[tafnut]

Re: Hypothetical Kluft

"2016 - 33 - she'll possibly be over the hill by then"

Doubt it. We had a discussion a while back (could it have been the listserv?) about physical peaks. The consensus was that the average athlete's physical peak occurs around 29, but the added value of experience and layering on one good training year onto the next extends an athlete's shelf life easily past 35. There are many examples of athletes nearing 40 without slowing down. I guess the problem becomes mental burnout. Are you willing to hit the weight room and track as aggressively as you did on the way up?

[Jon]

Re: Hypothetical Kluft

>"2016 - 33 - she'll possibly be over the hill by then"

Doubt it. We had a
>discussion a while back (could it have been the listserv?) about physical
>peaks. The consensus was that the average athlete's physical peak occurs around
>29, but the added value of experience and layering on one good training year
>onto the next extends an athlete's shelf life easily past 35. There are many
>examples of athletes nearing 40 without slowing down. I guess the problem
>becomes mental burnout. Are you willing to hit the weight room and track as
>aggressively as you did on the way up?



But the average athlete doesn't set a world junior record in their event. Kluft is one of those athletes who'll probably reach their peak very early on in their career. Do you mean to suggest that Kluft will keep steadily improving over the next 8 years??!

[Guest]

Re: Hypothetical Kluft

>Kluft won't be training again for 6-8 weeks , I don't think she has the passion
>to train at a high level.

Will she require to go under the knife? If she does need an operation, she should have enough time to train and recover.

[Guest]

Re: Hypothetical Kluft

>>Kluft won't be training again for 6-8 weeks , I don't think she has the
>passion
>to train at a high level.

Will she require to go under the knife?
>If she does need an operation, she should have enough time to train and
>recover.



That is a big question. This is a decision that she and her agent will have to make soon. I think we have another case of youth burnout, too much to soon. Her interest is not where it was a few years ago , and she wants to party like other girls in there 20's.

[michael lewis]

Re: Hypothetical Kluft

"But the average athlete doesn't set a world junior record in their event. Kluft is one of those athletes who'll probably reach their peak very early on in their career. Do you mean to suggest that Kluft will keep steadily improving over the next 8 years??!"

Since when are world junior record setters average? And to be 3rd best all-time in your first year into the senior ranks in the most technically demanding of all disciplines is, well, pick a superlative. Even if tomorrow Kluft never got any stronger and faster - as if! - she'd still have more latitude for improvement in technique alone than any other athlete in the world. It's her oyster, Nemo.

[Jon]

Re: Hypothetical Kluft

>Since when are world junior record setters
>average? And to be 3rd best all-time in your first year into the senior ranks
>in the most technically demanding of all disciplines is, well, pick a
>superlative. Even if tomorrow Kluft never got any stronger and faster - as if!
>- she'd still have more latitude for improvement in technique alone than any
>other athlete in the world. It's her oyster, Nemo.


The point I'm making is that athletes who set great marks as youngsters, tend to peak very early in their career and burn out. Granted, Kluft is already 3rd all-time on the senior ranks, but people can't expect her to keep progressing forever.

To illustrate my point a bit more, do any of these names ring a bell:
Obea Moore
Stanley Kerr
Albert Robinson
Lorenzo Daniel
Darrel Robinson
Steve Lewis
Earl Jones
Graham Williamson
Ade Mafe
Mitch Kingery
Luis Bueno
Aliacer Urrutia
Mike Carter
Arnold Campbell
Werner Reiterer
Harri Haatainen
Yekaterina Leshchova
Chandra Cheesborough
Denean Howard
Hildegard Ullrich
Zola Budd
Anita Weyermann
Sally Barsosio
Heike Balck
Charmaine Gale
Roy Martin
Philip Mosima
Richard Chelimo
Lan Lixin
Wang Yuan
Lang Yinlai
Ma Ningning
Jiang Bo
Natalya Bochina

[Guest]

Re: Hypothetical Kluft

To be fair Jon, for every flameout (and I would hardly characterize Michael Carter and Chandra Cheeseborough as early burnouts) you list, there are dozens of Mary Slaneys, Suzy Powells, Calvin Harrisons, Amy Acuffs, and Marion Joneses !!

[Jon]

Re: Hypothetical Kluft

>To be fair Jon, for every flameout (and I would hardly characterize Michael
>Carter and Chandra Cheeseborough as early burnouts) you list, there are dozens
>of Mary Slaneys, Suzy Powells, Calvin Harrisons, Amy Acuffs, and Marion Joneses
>!!



I wasn't just listing burn-outs. I was listing athletes who showed promise as youngsters, peaked early on in their careers (I.E. about 19 - 21), and then didn't do much afterwards.

[Guest]

Re: Hypothetical Kluft

Obea Moore
Stanley Kerr
Albert Robinson
Lorenzo Daniel
Darrel Robinson
Steve Lewis
Earl Jones
Graham Williamson
Ade Mafe
Mitch Kingery
Luis Bueno
Aliacer Urrutia
Mike Carter
Arnold Campbell
Werner Reiterer
Harri Haatainen
Yekaterina Leshchova
Chandra Cheesborough
Denean Howard
Hildegard Ullrich
Zola Budd
Anita Weyermann
Sally Barsosio
Heike Balck
Charmaine Gale
Roy Martin
Philip Mosima
Richard Chelimo
Lan Lixin
Wang Yuan
Lang Yinlai
Ma Ningning
Jiang Bo
Natalya Bochina


This list looks correct. I have seen this often, after early success many athletes chose to put less priority in athletics, and enjoy the "civilian life". It may , or may not be burnout, but I can see this with M Jones. After her stint with "Mr Hunter" , the Charlie Francis situation, and now the THG investigation , I would not be suprised if its over for her after Athens.

[Jon]

Re: Hypothetical Kluft

>To be fair Jon, for every flameout (and I would hardly characterize Michael
>Carter and Chandra Cheeseborough as early burnouts) you list, there are dozens
>of Mary Slaneys, Suzy Powells, Calvin Harrisons, Amy Acuffs, and Marion Joneses
>!!


Mary Slaney and Suzy Powell only became world class at around the age of 22. Calvin ran 44.70 at age 22; seven years later (at age 29 - the age at which athletes are supposed to be at their peak!), he has only improved on that time by 0.08!

Amy Acuff started promisingly, jumping 1.98 at age 20, and 2.00m at age 22. Still, it's taken her six years to improve on that, and even then, it's only been a 1cm improvement.

While Marion Jones is by no means finished, she hasn't improved on her 100m, 200m, and LJ marks since 1998!

Thus, showing that athletes who show promise early on, either burn out or don't improve for a good few years after.

[Guest]

Re: Hypothetical Kluft

Mary Slaney and Suzy Powell only became world class at
>around the age of 22.

Mary Slaney ran 2:00 at a very early age. Much earlier than 22. I would go out on limb and say that Mary was a better athlete than Suzy Powell.

C'mon, she was a double World Champ in Helsinki and in doing so, turned back some great runners

[michael lewis]

Re: Hypothetical Kluft

"The point I'm making is that athletes who set great marks as youngsters, tend to peak very early in their career and burn out. Granted, Kluft is already 3rd all-time on the senior ranks, but people can't expect her to keep progressing forever."

There's a problem comparing young multi-event stars with young specialists. Someone outstanding at a young age as a specialist has only had one, maybe two similar events to learn. It is impossible for someone doing 7 events to be as technically advanced through 7 events as someone doing only sprints. Kluft has more room for improvement in technique alone than any single event stars.

[Guest]

Re: Hypothetical Kluft

There's a problem comparing young multi-event stars with young
>specialists. Someone outstanding at a young age as a specialist has only had
>one, maybe two similar events to learn. It is impossible for someone doing 7
>events to be as technically advanced through 7 events as someone doing only
>sprints. Kluft has more room for improvement in technique alone than any
>single event stars.


Kluft is a "flash in the pan", she don't know her anus from a pothole. If she's burned out , she's burned out and she should try another career. How can she keep improving if she keeps getting injured ?

[gh]

Re: Hypothetical Kluft

Jon wrote:

<<Mary Slaney and Suzy Powell only became world class at around the age of 22>>

Slaney, if anything, is the poster girl for the wunderkind who only got better. She ran 2:02.43 at age 14 (!) and was No.4 in the World Rankings. 10 years after that she was No. 1 in the world in the 10,000 and 14 years after that was still good enough to be about 70th on the world list (and make an Olympic team).

Powell had the 11th-best throw in the world when she was 20.