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  • #31
    Re: Hypothetical Kluft

    >Slaney, if anything, is the poster girl for the wunderkind
    >who only got better. She ran 2:02.43 at age 14 (!) and was No.4 in the World
    >Rankings. 10 years after that she was No. 1 in the world in the 10,000 and 14
    >years after that was still good enough to be about 70th on the world list (and
    >make an Olympic team).



    Fair enough. But to be fair, she was 25 before she won her first global championships, which is "old" compared to Kluft, Steve Lewis, Barsosio, etc...

    Comment


    • #32
      Re: Hypothetical Kluft

      Still, Mary Decker could be considered as one of the few exceptions to the rule (along with Merlene Ottey, Javier Sotomayor and Heike Drechsler).

      Comment


      • #33
        Re: Hypothetical Kluft

        To illustrate my point a bit more, do any of these names ring a bell:>>

        The list does illustrate a point although Cheeseborough certainly doesn't belong on it. 8 years after her WJR 11.13 in Portland, she was winning Olympic 400 silver (49.05) and 2 relay golds in LA.

        Your point is a very good one and is taken. Still for the reasons I pointed out regarding the uniqueness of the multi-events, I say it's apples and oranges, but certainly not Macs and PCs

        Comment


        • #34
          Re: Hypothetical Kluft

          >Cheeseborough certainly doesn't belong on
          >it. 8 years after her WJR 11.13 in Portland, she was winning Olympic 400
          >silver (49.05) and 2 relay golds in LA.


          In 1984, Chandra was still "only" 25 (four years younger than the "average athlete's peak"), and then after 1984 she didn't really do anything of note.



          Still I agree - apples and oranges, and it depends on the individual athlete. Just looking at the previous WJR holder in the heptathlon (prior to Kluft, it was Sibylle Thiele), she scored 6465 as a junior. As a senior, she only improved by 170 points (6635 in 1986), and after that went downhill, scoring 6526 in 1988 on the way down.

          Brining it back to Kluft and JJK...
          At age 20, JJK was jumping 6.44 and scoring 6066 and then kept improving, taking a big leap between '85 and '86 (440 points). After that year (let's call it her break-through year), she only improved by another 133 between '86 and '88. Now, Kluft had a similar increase this year (459 points), and so that could mean that she's already had her big increase (her 'break-through'). It's unikely that she'll keep adding ~400 points to her best (i.e. going from 7001 to 7393!!) each year, but she'll probably add another 100-150 or so points on to her best over the next few years.

          Comment


          • #35
            Re: Hypothetical Kluft

            To project Kluft into the future, there are several factors which need to be evaluated.

            1) injuries - are they serious, and do these prevent her from being close to 100% when she competes....we all need a crystal ball here.

            2) I do agree with the longevity angle, and a decade is eternity for multi-eventers. I'd suspect 2004 Olympics through the 2009 Worlds to be competitions Carolina would, if healthy, and interested, comptete..

            her obvious joy competing in paris is a key element, and the joy can go a long way motivation wise...if the joy disappeared, then she could go cold turkey.....

            kind of interesting how the haters go about thrashing an athlete would brings a passion to the sport of t&f...

            as to whether Kluft gets jjk's mark...I think she'll make 2 or 3 runs at it between now and 2007..

            if a physically mature and more technically proficient Kluft has the same type Paris in Osaka, and the weather is favorable, I'd suspect she'd have her best shot there.....

            athens, I don't think she'll be advanced sufficiently...

            helsinki...weather would be a hindrance...

            2006 euros..?? where are they..

            osaka...and beijing...

            from a t&f fans perspective, these will all be hep competitions for anticipate...at least for me...

            and of you're a carolina hater..

            go root for duke.

            Comment


            • #36
              Re: Hypothetical Kluft

              One thing to keep in mind regarding "flameouts" is where you want to start the clock. I would agree completely that the success rate for anybody who starts to make a national/international splash while still in mid-teens is very high that it's perhaps not all that bad if you emerge at 19 or 20. People just notice it more at that age.

              What I'm trying to say is that the average career of an international-caliber performer probably isn't all that long. I have no figures for track (or how you would apply them) but a quick Net search turns up at the average career of an NHL player is 5.5 years, NBA is 4.0 and NFL is 3.3.

              No reason to think that the "average" track star gets more than half a decade in real contention. Indeed, go to the index of T&FN World Rankings in any event and look at the alpha listing of people and see how rare it is to get more than a few years in the top 10.

              Jon cited Steve Lewis as one of his "burnouts"; i guess because he never matched his Oly gold in his breakout year. How about until MJ came along NOBODY had ever repeated as Oly champ? But in reality, Lewis ranked only No. 3 in the world in '88; he then ranked another 6 years in a row, twice No. 2, and is in the event's all-time Top 10 scoring. We should all burn out like that.

              Comment


              • #37
                Re: Hypothetical Kluft

                >kind of interesting how the haters go about thrashing an athlete
                >would brings a passion to the sport of t&f...



                I seriously hope you're not including me as a "hater". I enjoy watching Kluft as much as the next T&F fan, and I feel she's a breath of fresh air in today's athletics scene. I'd also love to see her break the WR, but at the same time, I'm trying to keep everything in perspective.


                To Garry - I included Steve Lewis because he never improved (time-wise) after Seoul. Now, think back to when he ran that 43.87 as a 19-year-old in Seoul.... If someone had told you just a few minutes after that final that Steve Lewis was never going to improve on that time (yet alone run under 44s again), would you have believed them...?

                Comment


                • #38
                  Re: Hypothetical Kluft

                  "8 years after her WJR 11.13 in Portland"

                  Sorry same state wrong city. She ran that behind Brenda Morehead's 11.08 at the '76 US Oly Trials in Eugene. As I recall, Cheeseborough was a junior by the rules of the day, but so was Morehead according to rules in place now. Cheese was 17 and Morehead was 18 about to turn 19 that year.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Re: Hypothetical Kluft

                    "Now, Kluft had a similar increase this year (459 points), and so that could mean that she's already had her big increase (her 'break-through'). It's unikely that she'll keep adding ~400 points to her best (i.e. going from 7001 to 7393!!) each year, but she'll probably add another 100-150 or so points on to her best over the next few years."

                    You're right Jon, there's no way she's going to add 459 points in a season again, or she'll have to go play with the boys - wasn't one Annika Sorensen enough? I think her real pick-up events are going to be the shot, where she seems to be emulating JJK's improvement rather eerily, and the LJ, where all you need to do is look at that HJ and that burgeoning sprint talent to know we get to see real LONG jumping for the first time in years, real soon.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Re: Hypothetical Kluft

                      On burnouts. My thoughts on Steve Lewis were expressed above. He didn't improve timewise, but had a pretty long and productive career. Mike Carter didn't burn out. He just took the bugaboo of track & field athletes, football. He was the protype nose tackle in a 3-4 defense and probably should be in the hall. I have no reason to believe that had the amateur rules of today been in effect then, that he would not have continued a sucessful international career.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Re: Hypothetical Kluft

                        >>To Garry - I included Steve Lewis because he
                        >never improved (time-wise) after Seoul. Now, think back to when he ran that
                        >43.87 as a 19-year-old in Seoul.... If someone had told you just a few minutes
                        >after that final that Steve Lewis was never going to improve on that time (yet
                        >alone run under 44s again), would you have believed them...?>>

                        I doin't claim any particular kind of prescience, but ask Howard Willman (former T&FN Statistician) about that kind of thing. 5 seconds (literally) after Leslie Maxie set a World Junior Record in the 400H at the '84 Nationals as a HS Junior and I said "a 6-pack says she never improves." And she didn't. It's a pretty safe bet to go against any 17- or 18-year-old who achieves world class ever improving atain if they do it in a big open meet.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Re: Hypothetical Kluft

                          "a 6-pack says she never improves."

                          Maybe you have some otherworldly abilities - next time try "a 6-pack says she wins gold in Athens" and see what happens.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Re: Hypothetical Kluft

                            if anyone's interested,i did a mathematical analysis on her 5 recent heptathlons:


                            http://www.iaaf.org/community/forums/Li ... icID=15642


                            in summary,it comes out,that given her recent rate of progression,she will:

                            - eventually score just over 7200 (but not get WR)

                            - possibly jump 7.31 in heptathlon competitions (but obviously could go further if she concentrated on it full-time)

                            - have career PB totals in heptathlon competition of over 7400 (JJK was over 7500)

                            this is only based on career upto date - i'll revise it after her next big competion

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Re: Hypothetical Kluft

                              2006 euros..??
                              >where are they..



                              In SWEDEN!!!!
                              How about an effort for the WR on homefield, at least she will have a packed stadium behind her.

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Re: Hypothetical Kluft

                                >>Kluft won't be training again for 6-8 weeks , I don't think she has the
                                >passion
                                >to train at a high level.
                                Will she require to go under the knife?
                                >If she does need an operation, she should have enough time to train and
                                >recover.

                                Even if you don't understand the language in this (see link below) article in today's issue of Sweden's largest newspaper the pictures from her current training camp in Martinique doesn't quite indicate the alleged debilitating severe achilles injury ....

                                Some points from the article:
                                - She began her "serious" training on Oct 6 and has since then had 11 sessions per week.
                                - That is the same number of sessions as last year, but there has been a slight increase in the volume of some sessions.
                                - Training has gone well and she feels she has improved her general strength.
                                - She will have a limited indoor season only doing the Long Jump. Her first competition will be in Stockholm on Feb 12 and she plans three more compettitions before the World Indoors.

                                http://www.aftonbladet.se/vss/sport/sto ... 21,00.html

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