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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Re: Hypothetical Kluft

    I dont know much about heptathlon event but Barber is good. Her longjump is not so good though! I think here she can make improvement. She is very dynamic? and strong but technique not so good really. But this is to late for her to be as good as 7.2 she will stay at this level.
    Kluft is much better technique and I look to her for future if she chose to do this. As this man says she is fast and so much talent.

    Leave a comment:


  • michael lewis
    replied
    Re: Hypothetical Kluft

    "I want this girl to do the longjump. She could be the future of this event and win gold medal."

    I agree. Already Kluft has superior vertical jumping ability and as much speed as JJK had in her first 3 heptathlon WRs. In those records (2 in 86 and 1 in 87) JJK had HJ marks of 1.88, 1.88, and 1.90. Her 200s were 22.85, 22.95 and 23.00. By then Jackie had already been a long jumper for several years, including the 84 Olympics. Last year Carolina jumped 1.94 and ran 22.98 in Paris.
    I predict she will get faster, and when she learns to LJ better, I think she will break the WR in the LJ too.

    Leave a comment:


  • hjsteve1.97
    replied
    Re: Hypothetical Kluft

    Yelena, nice to get some international flavor here, your comments are interesting and informative.

    Speaking of Long Jumpers that are also Heptathletes, what do you think of Barber ?

    Leave a comment:


  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Re: Hypothetical Kluft

    I want this girl to do the longjump. She could be the future of this event and win gold medal.

    If she stay with the heptathlon then maybe she do a world record here too I do not know. She seems very fast which you need to be but I think she could make some improvement in the longjump on her run-up. Also she is a bit flat in the air so I think she needs more here.

    Maybe she get the heptahlon record next year I do not know but do not forget our Prokhorova. She is training well and I think she can medal. One of my friends in Russia say she will get silver and she will go over 6800.

    Leave a comment:


  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Re: Hypothetical Kluft

    >>Kluft won't be training again for 6-8 weeks , I don't think she has the
    >passion
    >to train at a high level.
    Will she require to go under the knife?
    >If she does need an operation, she should have enough time to train and
    >recover.

    Even if you don't understand the language in this (see link below) article in today's issue of Sweden's largest newspaper the pictures from her current training camp in Martinique doesn't quite indicate the alleged debilitating severe achilles injury ....

    Some points from the article:
    - She began her "serious" training on Oct 6 and has since then had 11 sessions per week.
    - That is the same number of sessions as last year, but there has been a slight increase in the volume of some sessions.
    - Training has gone well and she feels she has improved her general strength.
    - She will have a limited indoor season only doing the Long Jump. Her first competition will be in Stockholm on Feb 12 and she plans three more compettitions before the World Indoors.

    http://www.aftonbladet.se/vss/sport/sto ... 21,00.html

    Leave a comment:


  • IFK_Vaxjo
    replied
    Re: Hypothetical Kluft

    2006 euros..??
    >where are they..



    In SWEDEN!!!!
    How about an effort for the WR on homefield, at least she will have a packed stadium behind her.

    Leave a comment:


  • eldrick
    replied
    Re: Hypothetical Kluft

    if anyone's interested,i did a mathematical analysis on her 5 recent heptathlons:


    http://www.iaaf.org/community/forums/Li ... icID=15642


    in summary,it comes out,that given her recent rate of progression,she will:

    - eventually score just over 7200 (but not get WR)

    - possibly jump 7.31 in heptathlon competitions (but obviously could go further if she concentrated on it full-time)

    - have career PB totals in heptathlon competition of over 7400 (JJK was over 7500)

    this is only based on career upto date - i'll revise it after her next big competion

    Leave a comment:


  • michael lewis
    replied
    Re: Hypothetical Kluft

    "a 6-pack says she never improves."

    Maybe you have some otherworldly abilities - next time try "a 6-pack says she wins gold in Athens" and see what happens.

    Leave a comment:


  • gh
    replied
    Re: Hypothetical Kluft

    >>To Garry - I included Steve Lewis because he
    >never improved (time-wise) after Seoul. Now, think back to when he ran that
    >43.87 as a 19-year-old in Seoul.... If someone had told you just a few minutes
    >after that final that Steve Lewis was never going to improve on that time (yet
    >alone run under 44s again), would you have believed them...?>>

    I doin't claim any particular kind of prescience, but ask Howard Willman (former T&FN Statistician) about that kind of thing. 5 seconds (literally) after Leslie Maxie set a World Junior Record in the 400H at the '84 Nationals as a HS Junior and I said "a 6-pack says she never improves." And she didn't. It's a pretty safe bet to go against any 17- or 18-year-old who achieves world class ever improving atain if they do it in a big open meet.

    Leave a comment:


  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Re: Hypothetical Kluft

    On burnouts. My thoughts on Steve Lewis were expressed above. He didn't improve timewise, but had a pretty long and productive career. Mike Carter didn't burn out. He just took the bugaboo of track & field athletes, football. He was the protype nose tackle in a 3-4 defense and probably should be in the hall. I have no reason to believe that had the amateur rules of today been in effect then, that he would not have continued a sucessful international career.

    Leave a comment:


  • michael lewis
    replied
    Re: Hypothetical Kluft

    "Now, Kluft had a similar increase this year (459 points), and so that could mean that she's already had her big increase (her 'break-through'). It's unikely that she'll keep adding ~400 points to her best (i.e. going from 7001 to 7393!!) each year, but she'll probably add another 100-150 or so points on to her best over the next few years."

    You're right Jon, there's no way she's going to add 459 points in a season again, or she'll have to go play with the boys - wasn't one Annika Sorensen enough? I think her real pick-up events are going to be the shot, where she seems to be emulating JJK's improvement rather eerily, and the LJ, where all you need to do is look at that HJ and that burgeoning sprint talent to know we get to see real LONG jumping for the first time in years, real soon.

    Leave a comment:


  • michael lewis
    replied
    Re: Hypothetical Kluft

    "8 years after her WJR 11.13 in Portland"

    Sorry same state wrong city. She ran that behind Brenda Morehead's 11.08 at the '76 US Oly Trials in Eugene. As I recall, Cheeseborough was a junior by the rules of the day, but so was Morehead according to rules in place now. Cheese was 17 and Morehead was 18 about to turn 19 that year.

    Leave a comment:


  • Jon
    replied
    Re: Hypothetical Kluft

    >kind of interesting how the haters go about thrashing an athlete
    >would brings a passion to the sport of t&f...



    I seriously hope you're not including me as a "hater". I enjoy watching Kluft as much as the next T&F fan, and I feel she's a breath of fresh air in today's athletics scene. I'd also love to see her break the WR, but at the same time, I'm trying to keep everything in perspective.


    To Garry - I included Steve Lewis because he never improved (time-wise) after Seoul. Now, think back to when he ran that 43.87 as a 19-year-old in Seoul.... If someone had told you just a few minutes after that final that Steve Lewis was never going to improve on that time (yet alone run under 44s again), would you have believed them...?

    Leave a comment:


  • gh
    replied
    Re: Hypothetical Kluft

    One thing to keep in mind regarding "flameouts" is where you want to start the clock. I would agree completely that the success rate for anybody who starts to make a national/international splash while still in mid-teens is very high that it's perhaps not all that bad if you emerge at 19 or 20. People just notice it more at that age.

    What I'm trying to say is that the average career of an international-caliber performer probably isn't all that long. I have no figures for track (or how you would apply them) but a quick Net search turns up at the average career of an NHL player is 5.5 years, NBA is 4.0 and NFL is 3.3.

    No reason to think that the "average" track star gets more than half a decade in real contention. Indeed, go to the index of T&FN World Rankings in any event and look at the alpha listing of people and see how rare it is to get more than a few years in the top 10.

    Jon cited Steve Lewis as one of his "burnouts"; i guess because he never matched his Oly gold in his breakout year. How about until MJ came along NOBODY had ever repeated as Oly champ? But in reality, Lewis ranked only No. 3 in the world in '88; he then ranked another 6 years in a row, twice No. 2, and is in the event's all-time Top 10 scoring. We should all burn out like that.

    Leave a comment:


  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Re: Hypothetical Kluft

    To project Kluft into the future, there are several factors which need to be evaluated.

    1) injuries - are they serious, and do these prevent her from being close to 100% when she competes....we all need a crystal ball here.

    2) I do agree with the longevity angle, and a decade is eternity for multi-eventers. I'd suspect 2004 Olympics through the 2009 Worlds to be competitions Carolina would, if healthy, and interested, comptete..

    her obvious joy competing in paris is a key element, and the joy can go a long way motivation wise...if the joy disappeared, then she could go cold turkey.....

    kind of interesting how the haters go about thrashing an athlete would brings a passion to the sport of t&f...

    as to whether Kluft gets jjk's mark...I think she'll make 2 or 3 runs at it between now and 2007..

    if a physically mature and more technically proficient Kluft has the same type Paris in Osaka, and the weather is favorable, I'd suspect she'd have her best shot there.....

    athens, I don't think she'll be advanced sufficiently...

    helsinki...weather would be a hindrance...

    2006 euros..?? where are they..

    osaka...and beijing...

    from a t&f fans perspective, these will all be hep competitions for anticipate...at least for me...

    and of you're a carolina hater..

    go root for duke.

    Leave a comment:

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