Bekele Going For 10K WR At Pre!

[26mi235]

What's the American soil 5k best?

http://www.alltime-athletics.com/m_5000ok.htm

US allcomers record:
13:04.05 Tariku Bekele ETH 21.01.87 1 New York City 02.06.2007

So conceivably, he could break the American soil 5k record en route! And what if he does it with a negative split????

TJ, you should set up an electronic timer to be set off at the 5k split.... I suspect that would WOW the crowd.

I suppose that only the first 5000 can count for a record.

[RMc]

What's the American soil 5k best?

http://www.alltime-athletics.com/m_5000ok.htm

US allcomers record:
13:04.05 Tariku Bekele ETH 21.01.87 1 New York City 02.06.2007

So conceivably, he could break the American soil 5k record en route! And what if he does it with a negative split????

TJ, you should set up an electronic timer to be set off at the 5k split.... I suspect that would WOW the crowd.

[26mi235]

Geb had a race in his 5000 WR of 12:41 against Daniel Koman, (Zurich, 1997), but what other WR at 3000 or up was set in a 'real' race since, well, Viren? At the 1500 it might be Cram /Aouita

3:29.67 Steve Cram 1 Nice 16/07/1985
3:29.71 Saïd Aouita 2 Nice 16/07/1985

although this cam SSSOOO close

3:26.12 Hicham El Guerrouj 1 Bruxelles 24/08/2001
3:26.34 Bernard Lagat KEN 2 Bruxelles 24/08/2001

Men's Mile WR should count:

3:43.13 Hicham El Guerrouj 1 Roma 07.07.1999
3:43.40 Noah Ngeny 2 Roma 07.07.1999

and the women's 5000 WR:

14:16.63 Meseret Defar 1 Oslo 15.06.2007
14:22.51 Vivian Cheruiyot 2 Oslo 15.06.2007

Women's Half-Marathon WR:
66:25 Lornah Kiplagat 1 Udine 14.10.2007
66:48 Mary Keitany 2 Udine 14.10.2007

(stats from http://www.alltime-athletics.com/ )

Others close one's:

The Osaka WC women's steeplechase was 5 seconds off the WR and was definitely quite a race.

Thanks for filling things out more. The womens SC is quite new and so in a different category, to an extent. Also, was the 5 seconds early or late?

23 seconds is not too big in a HM, but, again, it might not be a very direct push/trading leads etc.

The mile mirrors the later even closer 1500 (and was inferior to the 1500, though still quite good, and probably the second best 1500/mile at the time (preceding as it did the aforementioned ElG/Lagat battle.

It is my impression that close races often end up nixing records as one party or the other (or both) will pull back so as not to rabbit the other and then lose. Recent examples include the womens 5000(?) where they let the pace lag during or at the 4k. It seems that WR attempts in the distance events generally leave OUT the primary challenger(s). I am interested in cases where this is not the case.

In the Marathon things are a little different since it can be hard to go on ones own for mile after mile. We have seen two semi-recent WRs that were races - the unintended race with the rabbit for Tergat and the Tergat/Geb/ beating provided by KK. Since then, Geb has taken the 'no challengers at all, but a spearhead of pacers' route, which leaves a slightly bad taste in my mouth, as much as I have liked Geb over the years.

[Cyril]

Going for a WR when you are the current WR holder, win everything in sight, and beat everyone in sight, takes an extraordinary amount of motivation. Each year world class runners have to come up with goals that will take them through training that is arduous (understatement), sometimes boring (same), etc., etc.

I have no doubt that KB is physically capable of breaking his 10K WR. That leaves two questions: First, will he find himself in a race, a true race, with someone like Tadesse pushing the pace way up, and have to actually race to win, setting a WR in the process? Not likely, but if he did, bye-bye WR. Second, since he won't find the first scenario, does he have the motivation, and currently the shape, to take it down on his own? Tall order. I say doubtful.

Very well said and I agree completely. The only thing I would add is that even though it is doubtful that he is currently in shape to take on this huge task, it is more likely that he would have a better chance in September.

[joeltetreault]

Geb had a race in his 5000 WR of 12:41 against Daniel Koman, (Zurich, 1997), but what other WR at 3000 or up was set in a 'real' race since, well, Viren? At the 1500 it might be Cram /Aouita

3:29.67 Steve Cram 1 Nice 16/07/1985
3:29.71 Saïd Aouita 2 Nice 16/07/1985

although this cam SSSOOO close

3:26.12 Hicham El Guerrouj 1 Bruxelles 24/08/2001
3:26.34 Bernard Lagat KEN 2 Bruxelles 24/08/2001

Men's Mile WR should count:

3:43.13 Hicham El Guerrouj 1 Roma 07.07.1999
3:43.40 Noah Ngeny 2 Roma 07.07.1999

and the women's 5000 WR:

14:16.63 Meseret Defar 1 Oslo 15.06.2007
14:22.51 Vivian Cheruiyot 2 Oslo 15.06.2007

Women's Half-Marathon WR:
66:25 Lornah Kiplagat 1 Udine 14.10.2007
66:48 Mary Keitany 2 Udine 14.10.2007

(stats from http://www.alltime-athletics.com/ )

Others close one's:

The Osaka WC women's steeplechase was 5 seconds off the WR and was definitely quite a race.

[26mi235]

Geb had a race in his 5000 WR of 12:41 against Daniel Koman, (Zurich, 1997), but what other WR at 3000 or up was set in a 'real' race since, well, Viren? At the 1500 it might be Cram /Aouita

3:29.67 Steve Cram 1 Nice 16/07/1985
3:29.71 Saïd Aouita 2 Nice 16/07/1985

although this cam SSSOOO close

3:26.12 Hicham El Guerrouj 1 Bruxelles 24/08/2001
3:26.34 Bernard Lagat KEN 2 Bruxelles 24/08/2001

[pickle47]

Going for a WR when you are the current WR holder, win everything in sight, and beat everyone in sight, takes an extraordinary amount of motivation. Each year world class runners have to come up with goals that will take them through training that is arduous (understatement), sometimes boring (same), etc., etc.

I have no doubt that KB is physically capable of breaking his 10K WR. That leaves two questions: First, will he find himself in a race, a true race, with someone like Tadesse pushing the pace way up, and have to actually race to win, setting a WR in the process? Not likely, but if he did, bye-bye WR. Second, since he won't find the first scenario, does he have the motivation, and currently the shape, to take it down on his own? Tall order. I say doubtful.

[SQUACKEE]

It is possible the Bek will P.R. has he gets closer and closer to 30 but its unlikely. I think its meaningless to bring up the runners who are the exception to the rule. Most of the runners who set their world records around 25 never bettered them. Most, but not all. I can see Bek running a 26:25 but a 26:16? I hope im wrong.

[Brian]

In addition to his 4:49.99, Bekele also dominated the 2008 WXC Champs, even with having to stop and get his shoe. And last year, he ran personal bests of 7:25 and 7:26, two of the fastest 3000m times since ElG's 7:23 mark in 1999. The way he negative split that 7:26 in the last kilo and the rainy, cold conditions it was run in, definitely indicate he has a 7:24 in him.

It should be noted that his 5000m mark for 2007 (Zaragoza) had some extenuating circumstances. Clearly given his 3000m times, he was in or close to WR shape, but it was extremely hot and he had to take control of the race earlier than expected (2000m) and was all by himself for the remainder. He finished almost 30 seconds up on second place. I really think he was in shape to run 12:37 or at least 12:40, but the rabbits and weather conspired against him.

And one reason Bekele's times haven't kept improving in chunks over the past two seasons is because of the interval needed to return to normalcy after the death of his fiancee. To have such an event happen--to say nothing of how it happened--him being present--is a tremendous emotional upheaval. Quite frankly, if it wasn't for the East African attitude towards the subject of death, in that they are more accepting of it as an inevitable act of God, etc., I doubt he might have ever run well again. As it was, two years to get back into your life isn't unreasonable.

I think to even run as well as he did the past few years is mind-boggling.

Every athlete requires the physical and emotional stability of a daily life routine in order to be at their best. Now that he is married and the stability totally back in his daily life, why shouldn't he be able to improve at age 26, especially in the 10,000m.--? [3,000m., you may have an arguement.]

[AS]

But as long as Geb has been around, look at the age he was at the time of his personal bests:

3:31.76i 24
3:33.79 26
3:52.39 26
4:52.86i 24
4:56.1 24
7:25.09 25
8:01.08 24
12:39.36 25
26:22.75 25

Geb's 5000 and 10000 pbs are 10 years old,....

Of course, Geb has ran a few handy road PRs in the past year or two...

[Aiden]

I'll run down on the track and do my own victory lap if he breaks the record. Just so you all know who the crazy guy is.

[ponytayne]

Whether K Bek breaks his WR in the 10k or not, it will be exciting to see him race in the US. If he simply breaks 27 min, the Hayward field crowd will love it. There are knowledgeable fans there, and they will know what they are witnessing.

[Aiden]

Tergat didn't start running until relatively late. Maybe around 1992 or so (don't have my copy of Train Hard Win Easy with me), so it took him several years to develop into a world record setter.

Was it '97 when he set the world record at 10000 meters? That's only five years. And he was world cross champ before that.

[dl]

FWIW I agree with ZZ. Bek is not improving and why should he?

Why shouldn't he?

What would make him faster as he turns 26?

What made Paul Tergat faster. He set his WR when he was 28, and he won his two Olympic silver medals when he was 27 and 31.

There are lots of other examples. Not all athletes are over the hill at 26. Many keep improving. Will Bekele be one of them? I've no idea, but I wouldn't dismiss the possibility.

Tergat didn't start running until relatively late. Maybe around 1992 or so (don't have my copy of Train Hard Win Easy with me), so it took him several years to develop into a world record setter.

[zzbottom]

Dutra provided a nice synopsis of my point. Well done.
This is not intended as anything other than food for thought, much like gh's listing of some ages of wr holders. But as long as Geb has been around, look at the age he was at the time of his personal bests:

3:31.76i 24
3:33.79 26
3:52.39 26
4:52.86i 24
4:56.1 24
7:25.09 25
8:01.08 24
12:39.36 25
26:22.75 25

Geb's 5000 and 10000 pbs are 10 years old, and he is still one of the best runners in the world but when you look at his personal bests, and then realize how few runners even get remotely close to his best times, it is amazing. On the track, Geb was every bit as good as Kenenisa.