So what WRs will be broken this year?

[Marlow]

Men
100 - 90% chance - 3 guys close!
200 - 1% - Bolt?
400 - 30% - JW later than sooner
800 - .1%
1500 - .1%
Steeple - 60% Shaheen ready again?
5000 - 10%
10000 - 30% - @ Pre?!
110H - 50% - 3 guys close!
400H - 20% - KC could bust one
HJ - .0001% Pego is laughing I put it so high
PV - not unless Bubka unretires
LJ - yeah right
TJ - ditto
SP - getting there
DT - 50% just need a wind
HT - 20% Tikhon was close
JT - 20% anything is possible here
Dec - 20% just need to be on for those 2 days
Mar - 60% - but who knows by whom?
4x1 - Jamaica?!
4x4 - always a chance in an Oly year

Women - only a handful have a shot, but certainly the distances from Steeple up are possible. Vlasik has a shot; certainly Isi or JennS could; TJ is always possible, as is the HT. The relays are possible too.

[AthleticsInBritain]

Women's TJ. Lebedeva, Savigne and Devetzi all been chasing each other around the low end of 15m indoors and out. Kravets' 15.50 is reachable. Complete wild card: Kluft as apparently she's reached 15m in training ...

[Per Andersen]

Jav- 20%? Way too high. Anything is NOT possible there. About the same chance as the 200.

I'll go to 60% for the 400H. Discus is about right at 60%.

I'll go to 80% for Vlasic and of course 0% in the Mens HJ

[26mi235]

Jav- 20%? Way too high. Anything is NOT possible there. About the same chance as the 200.

I'll go to 60% for the 400H. Discus is about right at 60%.

I'll go to 80% for Vlasic and of course 0% in the Mens HJ

This probably takes the cake for disparity between men and women if it were not for the 100, although I would settle for just a 10.6x for the record, as that 10.49 is simply a series of organizational errors in terms of being recognized.

[Marlow]

and of course 0% in the Mens HJ

I am going to send every last bit of my mind-beam energy into Thomas's brain to get him to scare the record, just to get the myth of 0% destroyed! There is no such thing as 0% probability when it comes to standing WRs. If one human did it, another can! :twisted:

[AS]

Given the progress made by multiple runner in the deuce last year and the breakthrough over 100m by Bolt already this year, I'd put the 200m WR probability at a crazily high 5%!!

[Guest]

Dec seems high.

I'd LOVE to see DT go
to Alkena

[Half Miler]

What do we win?

[Marlow]

What do we win?

well, duh, a WORLD RECORD!!

[Half Miler]

Well, I was going to say zero, but if my 'prize' is a world record, that would be self-defeating. :?

I think the chances of a world record for each specific event is less than 40% ('cept for MAYBE the men's 100), and that the likelihood that there will be one world record among all the events is between 50% and 100%.

So I'll say ONE (for the men) and ONE (for the women).

But I like your zeal!

[jeremyp]

I think the men's: 100, 110H, 5k, 10k.
and on the distaff side: PV, HJ, Steeple, HT.

[LopenUupunut]

I think we'll have a WR this year in men's 50k walk (100% probability :wink, discus (I think the highest probability of other events...), with 100, 110h, long distances and TJ being wild cards... plus pretty good chances for a new WR in the "mortals" class of javelin. On women's side, Vlasic, Savigne and Obergföll might have chances... it being the Chinese olympic year, I take Zhang Wenxiu for a wild card.

[Novianv2]

You must respect Kevin Young's record

20%?
60%?

You gotta be kidding me!? That 400mh record is Beamoneque*. No one has had a sniff in a decade. His record is nearly a quarter second faster than the great Edwin Moses. Young's record should be as revered as the lj and tj records (and I'm a jumper).

*ok, I know I'm just asking for the stats guys to jump all over this statement.

Novian

[Marlow]

Re: You must respect Kevin Young's record

You gotta be kidding me!? That 400mh record is Beamoneque*.

While I agree with your assessment of the quality of the m400H WR, Clement is SCARY talented, at LEAST as talented as Young. One of these days he's going to serendipitously hit his stride for all ten hurdles and he'll be mid-46!!!

[Half Miler]

Re: You must respect Kevin Young's record

20%?
60%?

You gotta be kidding me!? That 400mh record is Beamoneque*. No one has had a sniff in a decade. His record is nearly a quarter second faster than the great Edwin Moses. Young's record should be as revered as the lj and tj records (and I'm a jumper).

I would tend to agree with this. Young smacked the 10th hurdle, throwing him off stride and slowing him down. He may have gone 46.5 if not for that.