The Wind & Oliver's 12.95 [split]

[BCBaroo]

Well, since we've never had a sub 13 this early, we really don't know what to expect...All I know is the guy CRUSHED the field in Doha.

It's an Olympic year and he's got to make the team, I would've bet a drink that Pierce was going to break the world record in the 96 OT's...by a lot. But, those pesky hurdles got in his way.

I hope DO makes the team and then the O final and then whoo nellie... that race will have a billion people watching. That's hard to fathom.

[Marlow]

I'm confused

I agree.

didn't you say earlier that "peaking is......waaaay over-rated....." in the hurdles?

I did indeed.

In your opinion then, a world class hurdler shouldn't peak and just hope there's a big wind. Or peak and hope there's no wind? Please explain.

I'm so glad you asked. AJ said that he didn't have the 'pop' necessary to be hyper-fast till August, which means that his training plan is to be fully prepared then, not earlier. Oliver is obviously 'in shape' right now, and barring injury, could conceivably hold his speed all the way through August. He has obviously done all the work to be fast already, and AJ has not. At AJ's advanced age (I believe he's the same age as I, 57 (jk)), that shouldn't be too surprising. It may also just be the way he's used to doing it - ain't nothing wrong with that. I'm taking Oliver at face value (doesn't believe in peaking), because some athletes can do that. Now all he needs are some more meets and good conditions to fulfill AJ's (and mine, but adding mine to his is just sorta sad and pathetic, he being somebody and me being, well, me) expectations. Getting consistent in the 12.9s is just kinda scary.

[26mi235]

Lots of good stuff here, thanks to all, but especially sub-13 and mcgato.

Since you have to be in pretty good shape - able to get up to speed quickly without reaching too much etc., I would infer from D.O.'s superb time that he is closer to 'August' shape than spring shape, and thus the wind helps him a bit less than elsewise. An additional factor here is that the slow reaction mark of 0.22+ means that a quick mark would have put him well down into the 12.8s. Maybe the wind helped him early and late (especially the run-in), but he must have been on the rivets through the middle of the race with the hurdles coming at him really quickly.

I did some manipulation of the marks and came up with the following table: The wind is the assumed median level for the class interval (could be fine-tuned but would not affect the general results too much). The extra dots are to help alignment. The last three numbers are the weighted average of the wind speed, with the weights being the percentage of the class. This number is not a 'real' thing in itself, but the difference is a measure of the differential effect of wind, which is 0.736 and is twice the 100m weighted average. One conclusion is that the wind is helping about half as much, on average, in the 110h as in the 100m, or 0.025 seconds for a 1mps instead of the 0.05 for the sprint. -- discuss (especially the mcgatos, daisys, JRMs etc who like this sort of thing).

Wind 100m 110h Difference
2.8 36.0% 11.1% 24.9%
1.8 . 8.4% . 7.9% . 0.5%
1.3 10.0% 11.6% -1.6%
0.8 13.8% 13.8% . 0.0%
0.3 13.3% 19.3% -6.0%
-0.2 11.7% 22.4% -10.7%
-0.7 . 6.9% 13.9% . -7.0%

** 1.366 0.630 0.736

[marknhj]

Someone like TT who relies on great stride length to run a fast 100, does not benefit as much (if at all) from a tailwind.

The only two times TT has dipped under 13 seconds has been with a +1.5m/s and +1.7m/s wind.

And that is good empirical evidence, but there's still too many variables at play here. Sub13's comments are the most germane here and I believe his statement that when one is in peak shape, the wind is not a help.

I'm confused, didn't you say earlier that "peaking is......waaaay over-rated....." in the hurdles? In your opinion then, a world class hurdler shouldn't peak and just hope there's a big wind. Or peak and hope there's no wind? Please explain.

[Pego]

That guy sub13 thinks he knows it all!

Unless this is a tongue-in-cheek sarcasm, it is hilarious.

[Marlow]

Someone like TT who relies on great stride length to run a fast 100, does not benefit as much (if at all) from a tailwind.

The only two times TT has dipped under 13 seconds has been with a +1.5m/s and +1.7m/s wind.

And that is good empirical evidence, but there's still too many variables at play here. Sub13's comments are the most germane here and I believe his statement that when one is in peak shape, the wind is not a help.

[Jon]

Someone like TT who relies on great stride length to run a fast 100, does not benefit as much (if at all) from a tailwind.

The only two times TT has dipped under 13 seconds has been with a +1.5m/s and +1.7m/s wind.

[Marlow]

Marlow the way D.O. hurdles says the wind helped a lot. When he said he backed off at the end, that was not a clue to it disrupting his race it was a clue to the wind aiding him through the latter stages.

I would have to still disagree with you and will use sub13 (AJ - it's no secret) to back me up. 'Backing off' is what he'd have to do in August when he's ready to run sub-13. DO DID run sub-13 and is then, de facto, in primo condition, so the wind would not help. As I mentioned above, I think it's a net zero here, because while he did have to back off, the wind IS helping him run faster. As AJ said, whatever you run WITH wind is what you should run without it. We'll see if DO can strike while the iron's hot and get more sub-13s. It he does not, I would then tend to agree with you more, because I am indeed a believer in empirical evidence also.

[mcgato]

Fun stats (it is my job) about the wind conditions for hurdles vs flat:

110H that were 13.20 and better (a total of 683):
wind aided: 11.1% (76)
+1.6 to +2.0: 7.9% (54)
+1.1 to +1.5: 11.6% (79)
+0.6 to +1.0: 13.8% (94)
+0.1 to +0.5: 19.3% (132)
-0.4 to 0.0: 22.4% (153)
-0.5 or less: 13.9% (95)

100 that were 10.01 and better (a total of 712):
wind aided: 36.0% (256)
+1.6 to +2.0: 8.4% (60)
+1.1 to +1.5: 10.0% (71)
+0.6 to +1.0: 13.8% (98 )
+0.1 to +0.5: 13.3% (95)
-0.4 to 0.0: 11.7% (83)
-0.5 or less: 6.9% (49)

I'm not sure what it all means, and I did use pela's lists. I chose those cutoff times to get reasonable numbers that are nearly equal.

[Smoke]

That guy sub13 thinks he knows it all!

Marlow the way D.O. hurdles says the wind helped a lot. When he said he backed off at the end, that was not a clue to it disrupting his race it was a clue to the wind aiding him through the latter stages.
A hurdlers waterloo is the ability to maintain and handle the last 3 or 4 hurdles at speed. When you can sit back and get a huge push in the late stages, that is heaven. All the things sub13 mentioned are eliminated. No rushing the hurdles, no push into the hurdles, just sit back get your steps in and ride the wave.

The wind was legal, he RAN 12.95, and it was a great performance.

Daisy, hitting hurdles is a huge variable in and of itself. It depends on how you hit a hurdle. Catch your trail leg and disaster. hit your trail kne on the way up and it is iffy. Drive your lead leg through the hurdle and it can go a thousand different ways. Sit on it on the way down and probably not bothered. Sit on it on top of your movement and you will be along for the ride while you competition runs away.

[Daisy]

i am curious to know the difference in top hurdlers' pr vs. windy pr

I'm pretty sure this stat has been posted in an old thread. I'll try and hunt it down.

I have another question though. How much time do you think is lost by hitting hurdles? Liu seems to hit hurdles rarely whereas others will clip many, almost intentionally. Is hitting hurdles over rated with respect to losing speed?

[sub13]

its me again. the ? seems to be does wind help or not help, and if it does help how much. well i can only speak about my personal experiences and opinions.
wind helps sometimes and sometimes it doesn't depending on how i feel or what kind of shape im in. for me right now a 2.0 tailwind would help me, but in august it would hurt me.
the reason it would help me now is because right now im not as explosive or as quick as when im at my "peak". the wind would push me along a little so i wouldn't have to work as hard to run fast and at no time would i have to "reach" in the first part of the race (between 1 and 2). so that would allow me to get into a fast rythm earlier than i would otherwise. august would be a different story.
in august i am at my "peak" so im very explosive and very quick. on a still day i have a little trouble handling all the speed i can bring to the hurdle and managing the take off distance to the hurdle. so a tailwind woluld put me too close and i would have to slow down to make sure im 7'9" away at take off.

my philosophy is that with the men's sprint hurdles, anything you run with wind you can and will run without the wind. the hard part about running a fast time in the hurdles isn't about running fast its about having the technique and reflexes to handle the speed. so maybe the wind helped david maybe it didn't. he should run 12.9 or faster again this year.

on another note: i am curious to know the difference in top hurdlers' pr vs. windy pr

[Daisy]

I didn't know until he said he had to 'back off' the hurdles

Was his quote not "back off a little"?

OK, so optimum for him is +1.8? I still think it helped him.

[Marlow]

How do you know that? Possibly +2 is optimum for his stride length? Could that be why his time was so fast. Regardless, its really impressive given the reaction time too.

I didn't know until he said he had to 'back off' the hurdles, but the vast majority of elite 110Hers (under 13.30) do have natural sprint strides (even at the less-than-full-speed that they are going at, i.e., 13 vs 11 seconds for 110m) longer than ideal for the event, just by virtue of their native sprint speed.

[Daisy]

Before we get too carried away, let's remember that the wind was +2.0. It doesn't get any better than that, at least not for a record run.

You know better than that. Their stride pattern is critical and a 2.0 is disruptive. He had to chop his steps more than normal, but obviously he is an excellent shuffler, as Skeets calls it.

How do you know that? Possibly +2 is optimum for his stride length? Could that be why his time was so fast. Regardless, its really impressive given the reaction time too.