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  • #31
    Re: Edwin Moses comeback

    I'm curious as to whether or not the pro-con Moses people break out along age lines. i.e., is there anybody who is his age (say 45 or older) who believes he can do it, or is everybody who so-thinks somebody who hasn't yet felt the delicious ravages of time?

    (in other words, wehn I was 25 I would have believed that it was possible, but by the time I reached 40 I was shocked at how quickly age betrays us, no matter how hard we try)

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    • #32
      Re: Edwin Moses comeback

      Good point Garry. Lets get a roll call going:

      I'm 35 and I say Edwin has a shot at it (50.5 to 52.0 range). But then of course I am still holding out hope for myself as well. But if I'm delusional, I might as well bring Edwin along with me.

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      • #33
        Re: Edwin Moses comeback

        A. I'm 53, a huge EM fan (my event in college), a strong believer in mind over matter, on board with the if-anyone-can-do-it-he-can bandwagon, and I agree with virtually all the pro-EM opinions here.

        but . . .

        B. The odds are so hugely stacked against him, that I would generously give him a 2% chance to run 50.50. If he does do it, it would completely reconstruct my (and 99% of the people who understand what he's up against) ideas of aging. I would love it to happen, but the realities of aging are just that: real. At 48, the body cannot respond as it once did. I understand that marathoners and other endurance athletes withstand the rigors of time very well, but in straight speed/power, the decline becomes precipitous.

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        • #34
          Re: Edwin Moses comeback

          As I approach the mid-century mark this year myself, my experience tells me to agree with the 2% odds. As a former distance runner, I believe elite athletes face both a physical and mental attrition that looks like an asymptotic curve -- and the longer you've stayed in the game without career-ending injuries or faltering desire determines how long you survive the game. To me, Johnny Gray's longetivity is remarkable -- his consistency is a benchmark. But making a comeback after even 2-5 years is much different than 10-15 years, regardless of age. I wish him the best and would love to seem him on the track in Sacramento. My personal opinion is that he's testing his own abilities and limits; even if he fails to break 50.50, he'll have gained the knowledge about himself which is always what I thought drove Edwin Moses.

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          • #35
            Re: Edwin Moses comeback

            Here is the current record at 45 for the long hurdles. They don't give records between 45 and 50.

            M45 55.18 Guido Mueller(GER) 47 8- 1-86

            M50 58.1 Jack Greenwood(USA) 50 7- 3-76

            Moses was a far more accomplished athletes than these two. Surely he is faster than 55.18 now.



            This guy had guts a lot of people his age find walking hard work.

            M85 89.11 Bob Boal(USA) 85 10-12-97

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            • #36
              Re: Edwin Moses comeback

              I'm 60; I think he can run 52 flat if he absolutely dedicates himself to it, but WHY does he want to ?

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              • #37
                Re: Edwin Moses comeback

                In highly competetive sports (I am not counting equestrian, yachting, target shooting, NFL placekickers), the only athlete I recall still competing with the best close to 50 years of age was Sir Stanley Matthews (English soccer player for those uninitiated). Even Martina Navrátilová only competes in the much less demanding doubles (especially mixes-pretty much a joke). Sir Stanley accomplished it with his incredible technique while the speed was no longer there. I still remember how bad did Sandra Farmer-Patrick looked on her comeback (much younger than Moses), we all know what happenned to Mark Spitz' comeback. With all the admiration I have for EM, I just don't see it happenning.
                "A beautiful theory killed by an ugly fact."
                by Thomas Henry Huxley

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                • #38
                  Re: Edwin Moses comeback

                  Did Mark Spitz get to the trials.

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                  • #39
                    Re: Edwin Moses comeback

                    Wasn't Gordie Howe contributing at 51? But that was more becuase of skill and experience than power and speed.

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                    • #40
                      Re: Edwin Moses comeback

                      Mr Moses has a realistic shot at about 50.30 to 51.30. only if he learns to do what he has never had to to do and that is alternate! The only two ways to produce speed is stride length and stride frequency. Mr. Moses used to depend on his stide length when he was The Great One lol! Wow that was a long time ago. Anyway his age is going to put a stop to that plus he has to stay healthy as well. I think at his age he will be more injury prone and lets not forget why he retired it was any injury that he just could not get rid of! So now he has depend on a 14 stride to 5 or 7 leaving him on his dominant left leg to finish in 15. In which he will have to learn how to use turn over to get the 15 stride even more so at his hieght. Then the trick with training is he cant train like he used to because he needs to develop that turn over and that is not gonna happen with repeat 800s. Then he has to get some quality races because at his age he is not as durable and he has to be smart to when and how much he races he is no spring chicken anymore. Then the mental aspect he has to get in races that are won in 49 to 50 so he can get a feel for the pace. so that means no ego pumping races with some guys running 52 or 53 he has to take some loses now that is something he is not used to but at that same time he has to stay hungry so that he believes that he can win even when he cant. That wont be easy.
                      I think he can do it but it will be a challenge but He is the greatest of all time so if any one could do it he can! I just wish I could race him I would love that I would even let him take out the last hurdle lol!

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                      • #41
                        Re: Edwin Moses comeback

                        As I stated earlier I'm 46 and I think he has very little chance of making 50.5. Maybe 53secs but those other 2.5 secs are huge. This is completely bogus science but in my case I first knew I could jump when I was 12 and played around LJ-ing at school. I could feel the natural spring I had. I quit competing when I was 27 but still kept active. Here comes the bogus science...I've always run up stairs, I still enjoy the sensation of having a springy step. Two years ago, when I was 44, I suddenly realised it had gone, I now lumber up like most other people. I also think he may face injury problems when he starts hurdling again.

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                        • #42
                          Re: Edwin Moses comeback

                          when I was about 22 I bet my brother $ 50 that 28 years later, at age 50,I would be able to high jump 5'6" ( please do not laugh) which was a foot under my PR. It just looked so absurdly low that I figured that bet was a slam dunk.

                          Then I got to about age 50 and one day I was down on the track at IU/Indy. I put a bar at 5' 6" ( first time down at a HJ pit in 28 years) I realized it was the stupidest bet I ever made. It might as well have been 7' 6".

                          Ah, the optimism/naivete of youth !

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                          • #43
                            Re: Edwin Moses comeback

                            >Wasn't Gordie Howe contributing at 51? But that was more becuase of skill and
                            >experience than power and speed.>>

                            No, it was because he still had the sharpest elbows in the league.

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                            • #44
                              Re: Edwin Moses comeback

                              I'm 40 have worked in the fitness/health industry (coaching, personal training, health club owner) since an exercise physiology college student. I have also kept myself conditioned - running a big part of it, since I was 12 years old. I live in the same community as Mr. Moses and watched him run all-comers locally when I was in h.s.

                              While I am not competitive running anymore - weight training has added about 40 pounds to my ideal running weight of 150 (6 ft). My bodyfat % is still 8-9% and I can still hold my own in y age group (sub 17 5k) in local fun races. I feel the mind is a very powerful tool an Moses has a great mind - for the event and for controlling his body.

                              You can see my opinion about his chances above - intellectually doubtful but emotionally hopeful. I also think he should be encouraged and commended for his attempt rather than discouraged and criticized. If he fall short and runs 53-55 it will still a fantastic accomplishment.

                              Those who discourage may have a subconscious jealousy - I just don't understand what he is hurting by making the attempt.

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                              • #45
                                Re: Edwin Moses comeback

                                me - 53 .. Moses - one of the T&F greats - of all time. no way .. as has been said - speed diminished .. layoff significant and liklihood of injury wayyyy up. I'm also thinking (if he actually does try this) that even though his mental touhgness was a trademark, that (the mind) will falter due to the father time issue which inexorably will prevent the realization of his goals

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