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  • Stacy at 15'5 again

    Ms. Dragila went 15'5 again yesterday in Flagstaff. Is it me or did the Russians rejuvenate her? Beware waking the sleeping giant. She's been my favorite athlete since 1997 and I hope (and believe) she will go 16' soon and win the Athens Gold. She may not go undefeated because her new coach and she are tinkering with technique (to my somewhat trained eye, she tries to jump from too far in and ends up collapsing the top arm too much instead of holding pressure on it), so she may be inconsistent, but by August we may see the first 5m jump by a woman! The fact that there are 3 really good Russians makes this event very hot this year.

  • #2
    Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

    >Ms. Dragila went 15'5 again yesterday in Flagstaff. Is it me or did the
    >Russians rejuvenate her? Beware waking the sleeping giant. She's been my
    >favorite athlete since 1997 and I hope (and believe) she will go 16' soon and
    >win the Athens Gold. She may not go undefeated because her new coach and she
    >are tinkering with technique (to my somewhat trained eye, she tries to jump
    >from too far in and ends up collapsing the top arm too much instead of holding
    >pressure on it), so she may be inconsistent, but by August we may see the first
    >5m jump by a woman! The fact that there are 3 really good Russians makes this
    >event very hot this year.


    oldvaulter, I would like to see your comment on this.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

      Just to temper the enthusiasm a litle bit you should remember that she isprobably a coupla inches shorter than where you think she is simply becuz these are both altitude sites.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

        I did realize that, that but my enthusiasm is mainly fueled by the fact that these two meets are right out of the box, in January. She is doing this on speed and strength - so as the technique gets better, up go the bars.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

          Just to play devil advocate: how do you know that her technique isn't flawless and that she is really shy on strength and/or speed?

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

            I go only go on the things I've read about being with her new coach, which said that the Oct-Dec training phase was all about speed and strength and the technique work was to be from shorter pole runs (5 rights perhaps). When she goes back to her 9 rights (I think that's what she runs in mid-summer, but not positive) the technique has to be re-adjusted. I would guess that she's at 95% on speed and strength, maybe 75% (relatively speaking) on technique right now. But that's just from an outsider - albeit a very closely following one. You are right in recognizing my optimism, but I think I'm on pretty solid ground here (he said with his fingers crossed for good luck).

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

              Based on my observation in Reno. The difference was indeed "technical". She rides the energy of the plant much better than a year ago. This enable her to be a bit quicker on the pole.



              >I did realize that, that but my enthusiasm is mainly fueled by the fact that
              >these two meets are right out of the box, in January. She is doing this on
              >speed and strength - so as the technique gets better, up go the bars.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

                OV: Right now my prediction for Athens is 1) Isinbayeva; 2) Feofanova; 3) Dragila.

                Me: ** I'll go D, I, F

                A few predictions for the women's pole vault for 2004:
                1) Both world records -- indoor and outdoor -- will fall this year. Probably each one more than once.

                ** agree

                2) We'll see the first woman over 16' this year, but not over 5 meters.

                ** out on a limb - 5m WILL go. [too many people improving too fast + add in Oly year]

                3) Stacy may break the world indoor record, but she won't have it by the end of the indoor season if the Russian vaulters vault seriously indoors (which I expect they will).

                ** do not disagree :-)

                4) Yelena Isinbayeva will be the first woman over 16', possibly indoors, for sure outdoors.

                ** SD first only because she's almost there now.

                5) Yelena may not be the only woman over 16' this year. Excellent prospects for Svetlana and Stacy, and a good shot at it for Annika too. Tatyana Polnova is a little more of a quesion mark but may come on well this season. I don't expect to see her over 16' however.

                ** all three medalists over 16' (but not in Athens)

                6) Expect the Athens winner to vault 4.80 (15'9") or better to get the gold medal. We may see a 16' vault in Athens, though it probably won't be the first.

                ** agree

                7) It's going to be a real war in Athens in this event.

                ** oh yeah!

                I defer to OV in all things technical, but to no one in my enthusiasm for this year's female PV prospects - I wish the men would get their act together also - we miss you Sergei.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

                  Annika's the real deal as is Monica Pyrek of Poland.



                  Annika is the
                  >"dark horse" of the group, and in this event someone can always come out of
                  >the woodwork and surprise us. It's going to be fun!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

                    Medal Pool:Svetlana,Yelena,Dragila,Buschbaum,Becker and Pyrek

                    Championship vaulting is like shooting dice. I think about Kristiansson & Gibilisco on the men's side

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

                      Okkert Brits & Lobinger have each jumped 6 meters. Regarding the pegs, It really only affected the men who tend to come down on the bar

                      ie. Hartwig,Brits,Markov

                      Lobinger does not have this tendency nor does Miles. So, a healthy Lobinger will raise the bar.



                      No one has done it with short pegs (another blow to an already
                      >staggering event). Who will be the next over 6m? Hartwig and Markov have done
                      >it before.

                      I think Markov has a chance of coming on strong this year, and he's
                      >my very early pick for Athens, but I'm honestly not that enthusiastic about his
                      >chances, or anyone else's. This event stumps me right now. I hope someone
                      >emerges this year. Right now Markov, Lobinger, Averbukh, Miles, and several
                      >others in the low 19's.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

                        "Regarding the pegs, It really only affected the men who tend to come down on the bar"

                        Good point - men tend to get more vertical and pike more over the bar, so they are more apt to dislodge the new bar/peg.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

                          well, some of those men like to use there hands, haha...

                          Brits won his way with this in Paris on his 2nd attempt at 5.85



                          >"Regarding the pegs, It really only affected the men who tend to come down on
                          >the bar


                          "

                          Good point - men tend to get more vertical and pike more over the
                          >bar, so they are more apt to dislodge the new bar/peg.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

                            I would guess that the new peg/bar tripled the difficulty of Volzing, which is why they did it, of course. Instead of making the officials do their job, they just made an already extraordinarily difficult event even harder (and less enjoyable for the fans). But don't get me started! The IAAF's has done lots stupider stuff, but this one really was ill-conceived.

                            BTW, I hereby apologize to the IAAF/IOC on their Oly SP idea. It seems most of the big shots (get it?) like the idea, so who are we to argue?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

                              I think the complaining about the short pegs have been somewhat overdone. We can all see that 2003 was a better year resultswise than 2002 when the long pegs were still in use. Did not Mesnil at least have a couple of attempts at 6m? 6m is quite likely in 2004 and then how far away are we really?
                              Maybe the old pegs made more sense in the old days when the old, light wooden bars were in use. Try Wolzing on those bars. There was room for two bars side by side on those old pegs. With the modern bars, was all that room too much of an advantage?
                              However, U.S. vaulting has clearly stagnated even the women have tailed off a bit. Nobody had an older team than the U.S. (men) in Paris. Youngest guy was 32 or so. But the question is why? Is the U.S. falling behind at the coaching level? Are there too many vaulting centers spread over the country with too little contact?
                              I sure don't know but I am really mystified.

                              Comment

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