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Stacy at 15'5 again

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  • #16
    Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

    I don't think there's any chance of 5m. for the women this year. An 18cm improvement in the next 8 months or so. Come on, get real. 16' may be possible but I wouldn't count on that even. Remember, 16' means nothing to the Russians. When the record does fall (and it will, probably several times)the next barrier the Russians will care about is 4.90 (yes, I know that's 16' and change). Sure the event is still new and has progressed rapidly, however this progression will obviously start slowing down.

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    • #17
      Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

      Have you ever noticed that some events plateau and then suddenly quantum leap upward? I think we're at that stage right now with wPV. Look at how many women are at or near WR. One of them is due a big jump, just by law of averages, and the top 5 or so realize it may take a near 16' jump to win OG, so they are all ratcheting up their own expectations. I may be totally wrong, but I'm saying that 16' will go in June and there will be several jumps after that to get to 5m. Big order, but doable, just because of the event's dynamics this year. So one of us can say, "I told you so" at the end of the year. I do get 3-1 odds, don't I? (inferred from the tone of your poat)

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      • #18
        Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

        I agree 5 meters this year is not realistic. The WR only progressed by a total of 1 cm in the last 2 seasons... OK, this may be the year when the progression re-starts, but not at that sort of rate. The record just ain't that soft any more.
        Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

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        • #19
          Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

          Take my word for it - NOBODY in continental Europe (or any other place in the world which was never under British/US reign) knows or cares about feet and inches. Both Javier Sotomayor and Sergey Bubka had to be told of the imperial significance of records they set (8 ft. and 20 ft., respectively) and even then they laughed at the idea anyone considered it important.
          Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

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          • #20
            Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

            >Take my word for it - NOBODY in continental Europe (or any other place in the
            >world which was never under British/US reign) knows or cares about feet and
            >inches. Both Javier Sotomayor and Sergey Bubka had to be told of the imperial
            >significance of records they set (8 ft. and 20 ft., respectively) and even then
            >they laughed at the idea anyone considered it important.>>

            WRONG!
            Sergey Bubka, T&FN, April 1991, after his 20-0 (oh, sorry, 6.10) in San Sebastian: "I'm especially happy because this will get a lot of attention in America. 20-feet will mean more to Americans than Europeans. this record is a gift to the United States."

            Sergey knew (and knows) good marketing when he saw it.

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            • #21
              Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

              Well I am European so do have some knowledge about these things! Firstly, I had no clue how high 16' was until I calculated it last night, and I'm a hard core field event fan. I think Sergie was aware (or made aware) of the significance of 20' in the USA because of his business savvy. At that time there was still the possibility that the US market was one that he could exploit financially. I doubt if Soto had any clue what 8' meant.

              I'm going to Vegas this afternoon. I'll check what odds we can get on both 5m. and 16' and report back!

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              • #22
                Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

                >Well I am European so do have some knowledge about these things! Firstly, I had
                >no clue how high 16' was until I calculated it last night, and I'm a hard core
                >field event fan.

                That sort of sums it up... plus you actually come from the country where the imperial measurements were invented, and they were commonly used until recently. To an ex-Soviet, 20 feet is as abstract as if you said to an American that Bubka vaulted 18 chi (yes, the correct response is 'what???'... chi is a Chinese unit of length).
                Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

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                • #23
                  Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

                  I am from central Europe and we were very much aware of imperial landmarks such as 7feet HJ, 30f LJ, 70f SP and so on. In Charles Dumas obituary, central European newspapers I followed emphasized how important those marks are for the Americans.
                  "A beautiful theory killed by an ugly fact."
                  by Thomas Henry Huxley

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                  • #24
                    Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

                    Geez, OV, you hustler, you. That's too rich for my blood - I ain't no Pete Rose. But now that I've shot my mouth off (well, fingers, but that's too bloody an image), I guess I have to show. How about next year's HS Annual vs. an ATFS Annual? I think the ATFS is triple the price of the HS. I'm sure I've set the odds way too low, but I really, really want SD to do it.

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                    • #25
                      Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

                      >In Charles Dumas obituary, central
                      >European newspapers I followed emphasized how important those marks are for the
                      >Americans.

                      I've also read that. The obits were just cut-and-pasted from the US press release - I don't see how that proves your point...
                      Just to make my position clear: I lived in the US for a year, so I'm familiar with the imperial system. I'm also good at math and I know, without using a calculator, that 16 ft. is 4.88m. Still, the imperial barrier just doesn't intuitively feel important to me.
                      Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

                        Frankly I feel like neither barrier should feel "intuitively" more important than the other. Each system is a completely made up attempt by civilization to standardize things so they can say "he vaulted this high, he vaulted this high, so he's better." We can pick the numbers however we want, a height of 16' could be called 4.88m or 532 quats or 38 hands or whatever. I think the point is, we as a society and as vaulters have decided to use either the English or metric systems, and as they're both simply designed with purely utilitarian purposes, I think neither barrier is more important than the other. If I were going to jump all of my meets in metric, I would probably shoot for jumping 560, 570, 580, etc., but I would at the same time hopefully identify that these heights could be expressed in English measurements. I know as an American vaulter, I am always aware of the "translated" metric height of the bars I am jumping at, and hitting a pr of 460 or 475 is just as significant to me as saying I pr'ed at 15' or 15'6". That thought was kind of muddled, but I guess what I'm saying is that I'm not sure one societally fabricated "barrier" should feel any more important than another. I think any athelte is happy with a pr, and clearly the women right now are shooting for 5m. But Stacy certainly, and I believe also the Russian women as well, are looking at 16' as the first step in that direction.

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                        • #27
                          Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

                          OK, maybe 'intuitive' wasn't the right word... Of course, any units of measurement are arbitrary... However, Europeans think in metric terms. Even if they are familiar with imperial measurements (like I am), they can't grasp them directly. 5 meters actually means something to me. 16 feet doesn't until I convert it mentally to 4.88 (or 'a bit less than 5 meters', depending on the required level of precision). Therefore, I will not consider 16 feet a round number and will not be particularly excited by clearance of this height (unlike 5 meters).
                          Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

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                          • #28
                            Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

                            Men's PV barrier breakers (from The Big Green Book):

                            11' 3.37/11-3/4 Henry Kayll (GB) ’77
                            12' 3.69/12-11/4 Norman Dole (US) ’04
                            13' 3.99/13-1 Robert Gardner (US) ’12
                            4.00 4.02/13-21/4 Marc Wright (US) ’12
                            14' 4.27/14-0 Sabin Carr (US) ’27
                            4.50 4.54/14-11 Bill Sefton (US) ’37
                            15' 4.57/15-0 Dutch Warmerdam (US) ’40
                            16' 4.88i/16-1/4 John Uelses (US) ’62
                            [outdoors—4.89/16-3/4 Uelses ’62]
                            5.00 5.00i/16-43/4 Pentti Nikula (Fin) ’63
                            [outdoors—5.00/16-43/4 Brian Sternberg (US) ’63]
                            17' 5.20/17-3/4 John Pennel (US) ’63
                            18' 5.49/18-0 Chris Papanicolaou (Gre) ’70
                            5.50 5.51/18-1 Kjell Isaksson (Swe) ’72
                            19' 5.80/19-1/4 Thierry Vigneron (Fra) ’81
                            6.00 6.00/19-81/4 Sergey Bubka (SU) ’85
                            20' 6.10i/20-0 Sergey Bubka (SU) ’91
                            [outdoors—6.10/20-0 Bubka ’91]

                            Helps show why feet barriers are better than metric barriers: you get more of them to break! :-)

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                            • #29
                              Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

                              Women's PV Barriers (recent stuff only)(

                              13' & 4.00 4.00/13-11/2 Chunzhen Zhang (Chn) ’91
                              14' 4.27/14-0i Caiyun Sun (Chn) ’96
                              4.50 4.50/14-9 Emma George (Aus) ’97
                              15' 4.57/15-0 Emma George (Aus) ’98
                              15'5 4.70/15-5 Stacy Dragila (US) ’00

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                              • #30
                                Re: Stacy at 15'5 again

                                >Helps show why feet barriers
                                >are better than metric barriers: you get more of them to break! :-)

                                Not really... in metric terms, every 10 cm can be considered a barrier - if it has a zero at the end, it's a round number :-)
                                Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

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