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improvement on 400m times

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  • improvement on 400m times

    On Feb.14 I am going over to Iowa State to watch a meet. Minnesota will be there. The Gophers have a few good 400m men. What is the chance that either Potter or Steele can improve on their sub:45 times in the outdoor season? How fast would either have to get to make the olympic team?

  • #2
    Re: improvement on 400m times

    Just my opinion but I'd think you have to post a sub 44.50 at the trials final to make the top 3 at the 400m and that doesn't guarentee you a spot.

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    • #3
      Re: improvement on 400m times

      I'll venture a guess that 3rd place at the FOT will be 44.6. I'm writing it down to check later in the year. And that's not very fast compared to 1988 as an example.

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      • #4
        Re: improvement on 400m times

        Only twice has the U.S. had a selection meet where you had to break 44.50 to get into the top 3: for the '93 Worlds and for the '96 OG.

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        • #5
          Re: improvement on 400m times

          "I'd think you have to post a sub 44.50 at the trials final to make the top 3 at the 400m and that doesn't guarentee you a spot."

          Why wouldn't finishing in the top 3 guarantee you a spot?

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          • #6
            Re: improvement on 400m times

            Geez, why so hard on me all the time.

            I meant that even if you run under 44.50 you are not guarenteed a spot on the team. You may be fourth or fifth.

            If I had said that 44.50 will get you a spot, someone would have pointed out that in previous years (such as 1993 or 1996) that would not have done it. Damned if I do, damned if I don't.

            I agree that it might not take 44.50 but in order to think you have a good shot I think you need to be prepared to go 44.50 or better in the finals.

            Ok .... what did I say wrong this time?

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            • #7
              Re: improvement on 400m times

              In reply to GH: Didn't Steve Lewis run 44:37 at the 88 trials for third? The first two, Reynolds and Everett broke 44 that day.

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              • #8
                Re: improvement on 400m times

                Since the retirement of Michael Johnson, the US leading 400m times have been far slower then in years past. I think that a 44.5 will definitely be top 3, and if the Minnesota Boys can repeat how they ran last year they should be in that trials final.

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                • #9
                  Re: improvement on 400m times

                  Guess my sentence was too vague. I said that somebody HAD to break 44.50 to make the team, not DID break it. In other words I was citing just the two instances instances where there was a 4th (or more) that was sub-44.50 as well, making the breaking of that barrier a prerequisite.

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                  • #10
                    Re: improvement on 400m times

                    The fastest 400m run by a non American runner is 44.14, how long do you think it will be until someone other then an American runs sub 44?

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                    • #11
                      Re: improvement on 400m times

                      Here's a novel insight: we will see at the Trials what it takes to be in the top 3. Right now, there is no way to know.

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                      • #12
                        Re: improvement on 400m times

                        Of course we can't know, but making "educated" guesses is one of the reasons we have this board!

                        In looking at the numbers, I'd say it's unlikely that you'll see three sub-44.50s. Here's the number of Americans who have annually broken 44.50 starting with the run-up year to the last OT, '99, and also the number of sub-45.00 people, just to show what kind of "pressure" is building to force people to run quickly.

                        1999--4/8
                        2000--2/12
                        2001--1/7
                        2002--2/6
                        2003--1/8

                        With races three days in a row and the need to run close to 45-flat to get to the final just 24 hours before I suspect drains a lot of tanks.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: improvement on 400m times

                          To my mind, at the US Trials, we are going to
                          see the emergence of a new generation that will
                          take the 400m power.
                          Sudden rising stars as I wrote in another thread
                          recently.
                          I see one or two sub-44" at the next Trials.
                          Certainly in the semi-finals...

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: improvement on 400m times

                            >The fastest 400m run by a non American runner is 44.14, how long do you think
                            >it will be until someone other then an American runs sub 44?

                            I think it will be a while until ANYONE (American or not) runs a sub 44 again.
                            Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

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                            • #15
                              Re: improvement on 400m times

                              >
                              To my mind, at the US Trials, we are going to
                              see the emergence of a new
                              >generation that will
                              take the 400m power.
                              Sudden rising stars as I wrote
                              >in another thread
                              recently.
                              I see one or two sub-44" at the next
                              >Trials.
                              Certainly in the semi-finals...

                              Oh, really?

                              Comment

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