Women's AOY poll

[joeltetreault]

I thought a poll was in order given the Dibaba/Jelimo debate on this thread:

http://mb.trackandfieldnews.com/discuss ... hp?t=33137

[nevetsllim]

I've said Jelimo but I have no objections if Tiru was to win. Both athletes have been incredible.

[Dave]

repeat gold medal, three world records, seems like Isi would be an obvious choice.

Am I missing something?

[catson52]

If votes still being counted, mine goes to Jelimo.

[doug091463]

repeat gold medal, three world records, seems like Isi would be an obvious choice.

Am I missing something?

but the womens pole vault is a relatively new event, where records should be expected to be broken on a regular basis meaning records wont last, isi will most likely break her own world record a few times next year and the year after that and the year after that, then someone better will come along.

i am biased, but the way i look at it, there are lots more people trying to be runners than are trying to be pole vaulters.

[Half Miler]

Glad to see 77% of the voters here are sensible folks.

[eldrick]

but the womens pole vault is a relatively new event, where records should be expected to be broken on a regular basis meaning records wont last

that argument is starting to look suspect

the event has been around since ~ '92, but went thru a phase when emma george took the wr from 4.25 to 4.60 between '95 - '99

that took it to a fairly respectable level & it's been 9y since then & isi has taken it to 5.05

that's long enough for the event to have reached some level of maturity & the "relatively new" description is starting to look redundant

personally, if an event has been contested at an og for at least 10y, i'd call it "mature" - it's been there since '00 & i think it's almost there in terms of maturity ( when an event gets into og, a country pours money & resources into an event & by implication best talent in world is identified, nurtured & channelled into the event )

[imaginative]

After her improvements this year, Isi has nothing to be ashamed of. A 5.0x
could very well be the equivalent of what the best female long jumpers do
nowadays.

Nevertheless, the pole vault is still improving: The overall level keeps
rising, there are several promising youths and juniors, and we do not yet
know what Jen's true potential is (nor Isi's for that matter). In five
years, or so, we will be better able to judge the current situation.

[eldrick]

i suppose we coud take the mean of the all-time top 10 performances/performers this year & all-time list for previous few years & see if the increasing mean is "slowing down"

[Jon]

i suppose we coud take the mean of the all-time top 10 performances/performers this year & all-time list for previous few years & see if the increasing mean is "slowing down"

Here is how the women's pole vault has progressed over the past 10 years, with figures for the 1st ranked, 10th ranked, 50th, 100th and then the number of athletes over four metres that year.

Year  1     10    50    100    No. over 4m
------------------------------------------
1999  4.60  4.40  4.15  3.96   96
2000  4.70  4.50  4.20  4.04   138
2001  4.81  4.51  4.20  4.05   140
2002  4.78  4.52  4.30  4.10   167
2003  4.82  4.60  4.30  4.10   186
2004  4.92  4.60  4.30  4.17   220
2005  5.01  4.53  4.30  4.16   245
2006  4.91  4.62  4.35  4.20   227
2007  4.91  4.65  4.36  4.20   240
2008  5.05  4.70  4.40  4.21   256

So in just ten years, we now have three times as many women over four metres. In 1999, 4.40 would have ranked you 10th in the world - we now have five times as many women breaking that mark!

Even in just the past five years, the event has been progressing rapidly. The world-leading mark is more than 10cm higher, the 10th and 50th ranked marks are 10cm higher and there are way more women over four metres.

So Doug (above) is right - in relative terms, compared to all the other T&F events, the PV is still progressing rapidly (perhaps second only to the steeple) and he is right to say it is "relatively new". The event is nowhere near to rightfully being called "mature".

Isinbayeva had a great season, but in 10-20 years time her achievements in 2008 will not seem all that extraordinary - just like Emma George 10 years ago. There are now dozens of 4.60m vaulters.

Jelimo's season, on the other hand, will most likely still stand up in 10-20 years time as one of the greatest ever in the women's 800m - an event that really IS mature.

[eldrick]

there is a slow down in last 4 - 5y of most categories

- 1st stalled between '04 - today, with '05 & '06 being worse

- 10th stalled between '03 - '06 & then slow pick-up

- 50th was stuck at 4.30 for 4y & then slow pick-up

- 100th position from '04 onwards has been a slow rise

- number over 4.00m in past 4y has had a dip & then only picked up last 2y - coud be explained just by simply more athletes entering pool

this is not sign of an event "progressing rapidly" but slowing down

perhaps best indication is compare '99 with in-between mean of '03/'04 for each category & with this for '08, so we have equal time "blocks" :

1999              4.60  4.40  4.15  3.96   96

'03/'04 mean     4.87  4.60   4.30  4.13.5 203

2008              5.05  4.70  4.40  4.21   256

the gaps between 2nd/3rd line are significantly smaller than between 1st/2nd, but at this rate in a few years, we coud be looking at ~

'12/'13 mean  5.14  4.75  4.45  4.25  283

[imaginative]

To summarize Jon's and Eldy's posts (in the hope to prevent a fight over a
semantical misunderstanding):

The event is still progressing fast compared to other events, but is
starting to slow down, as it approaches its ``mature'' level. (Diminishing
returns, and so on.) We can expect the level to increase further, but should
not expect it to do so for overly long.

[Half Miler]

Jelimo's season, on the other hand, will most likely still stand up in 10-20 years time as one of the greatest ever in the women's 800m

Except that, in 10-20 years, Jelimo will likely have 1 or 2 seasons that top this one. 8-)

[croflash]

Jelimo's season, on the other hand, will most likely still stand up in 10-20 years time as one of the greatest ever in the women's 800m

Except that, in 10-20 years, Jelimo will likely have 1 or 2 seasons that top this one. 8-)

If she develops just a little bit and maintains the same level athletically, she should have a lot more seasons better than her rookie year even though that looks a bit strange because it's already been so good. However, experience matters too and she has caught up quickly, as seen during the Olympics and in Zürich when she saved more energy for the second lap than previously.

It's hard to imagine that anyone could be close to peak shape at the age of 18 and competing in that distance for the first year.

[Jon]

To summarize Jon's and Eldy's posts (in the hope to prevent a fight over a
semantical misunderstanding):

The event is still progressing fast compared to other events, but is
starting to slow down, as it approaches its ``mature'' level. (Diminishing
returns, and so on.) We can expect the level to increase further, but should
not expect it to do so for overly long.

Precisely. The main thing in the context of this discussion is that it is still a much newer event (and is progressing more rapidly) than the ones contested by the other genuine AOY contenders (Dibaba, Jelimo, Spotakova, etc).