Hart confident Bolt can go sub-43

[Paul Henry]

Coach Hart convinced Bolt can go below 43s. The article behind this is on the new British T&F magazine (spikes). But I dont know if it is a conflict of interest for GH to allow me to post the link on this forum (being a rival magazine and all) so I wont attempt to.

[George P.]

Coach is really going out on a limb, eh? :wink:

I don't believe there are problems posting links or even quotes here. Just don't post entire articles.

[onlooker]

I'ts also in the Jamaican Gleaner.

http://www.jamaicagleaner.com/gleaner/2 ... orts3.html

No surprise there. I think just about everyone is convinced that he should be able to go sub 43 given his recent form and talent.



One Love!

[Marlow]

Re: Hart confident Bolt can go sub-43

Coach Hart convinced Bolt can go below 43s.

Boring! The burning question is whether he thinks JW can go sub-1:40!!! :twisted:

[imaginative]

In the Jamaican version (have not read the originally mentioned article), Hart
calculates 400m potential by doubling a 200m time and adding 3.5 seconds. If
that rule is true, the 400m WR is very weak. (Any 19.74 200m-runner would have
the capacity to break 43s.) There is good reason to remain sceptical; in
particular, as it does not differ between 100/200 and 200/400 runners.

It is conceivable that this rule would hold roughly for 400m specialists, but
if so it cannot be extended to non-specialist without modifications.

[sprintblox]

In the Jamaican version (have not read the originally mentioned article), Hart
calculates 400m potential by doubling a 200m time and adding 3.5 seconds. If
that rule is true, the 400m WR is very weak. (Any 19.74 200m-runner would have
the capacity to break 43s.) There is good reason to remain sceptical; in
particular, as it does not differ between 100/200 and 200/400 runners.

I wonder why he said 3.5 and not 4.5, as the 4.5 lines up much better with his own protege MJ (using 4.5 gives 43.14 for him).

Then again, using 3.5 lines up well for JW.

Maybe 3.5 works well for the 400 specialist who occasionally tries the 200m (JW, LM), while 4.5 works for a 100/200 guy or 200/400 guy who has put in some years of dedicated training for the 200.

[Paul Henry]

In the Jamaican version (have not read the originally mentioned article), Hart
calculates 400m potential by doubling a 200m time and adding 3.5 seconds. If
that rule is true, the 400m WR is very weak. (Any 19.74 200m-runner would have
the capacity to break 43s.) There is good reason to remain sceptical; in
particular, as it does not differ between 100/200 and 200/400 runners.

It is conceivable that this rule would hold roughly for 400m specialists, but
if so it cannot be extended to non-specialist without modifications.

Well he did qualify it by saying; once the athlete is willing to dedicate himself to the task. Noting the obvious extraneous work involved.

[Pego]

In the Jamaican version (have not read the originally mentioned article), Hart
calculates 400m potential by doubling a 200m time and adding 3.5 seconds. If
that rule is true, the 400m WR is very weak. (Any 19.74 200m-runner would have
the capacity to break 43s.) There is good reason to remain sceptical; in
particular, as it does not differ between 100/200 and 200/400 runners.

I wonder why he said 3.5 and not 4.5, as the 4.5 lines up much better with his own protege MJ (using 4.5 gives 43.14 for him).

Then again, using 3.5 lines up well for JW.

Maybe 3.5 works well for the 400 specialist who occasionally tries the 200m (JW, LM), while 4.5 works for a 100/200 guy or 200/400 guy who has put in some years of dedicated training for the 200.

With all due respect to coach Hart, this appears to be the silliest formula ever. For Andrew Rock, it's close to 3, perhaps even below (I am not certain of his 200 PR, but it's not far below 21).
When you need separate formula for each athlete, it's not a formula at all.

[paulthefan]

Wasn't Hart on record with the same prediction regarding JW ? It sounds like Hart has sent his CV to Bolt's agent.

[tandfman]

FWIW, if you take 19.30 and apply the ratio of Bolt's 200/400 times when he was 16 years old, you get 43.48.

[BillVol]

Ain't no way. Makes you wonder if Jeremy didn't indeed make a good decision to move on from this guy.

[jhc68]

Have to smile at imaginative's declaration that "any 19.74" sprinter could break 43 by Hart's formula.... sounds as if 19.74 is sort of a throw away mark !

19.74 Land is a pretty exclusive piece of real estate: Bolt, Johnson, Gay, Carter, Spearmon, Fredericks, Dix, Mennea, Marsh... (anyone left out?)

Me, I'd discount Marsh,Mennea, Dix, Spearmon and Gay. I just have a baseless hunch that they wouldn't do well over 400 meters. But Fredericks and X-Man and Bolt? I'd guess if they were willing to pay the price of preparing properly they'd have had a shot at 43. Of course for Carter, well, he might be paying the price for other things instead.

[jhc68]

Have to smile at imaginative's declaration that "any 19.74" sprinter could break 43 by Hart's formula.... sounds as if 19.74 is sort of a throw away mark !

19.74 Land is a pretty exclusive piece of real estate: Bolt, Johnson, Gay, Carter, Spearmon, Fredericks, Dix, Mennea, Marsh... (anyone left out?)

Me, I'd discount Marsh,Mennea, Dix, Spearmon and Gay. I just have a baseless hunch that they wouldn't do well over 400 meters. But Fredericks and X-Man and Bolt? I'd guess if they were willing to pay the price of preparing properly they'd have had a shot at 43. Of course for Carter, well, he might be paying the price for other things instead.

[catson52]

Re: Hart confident Bolt can go sub-43

Coach Hart convinced Bolt can go below 43s.

Boring! The burning question is whether he thinks JW can go sub-1:40!!! :twisted:

Let's see a sub 1:43 first, and we can then take it from there.

[sprintblox]

Me, I'd discount Marsh,Mennea, Dix, Spearmon and Gay. I just have a baseless hunch that they wouldn't do well over 400 meters.

Spearmon has a good 400 (45.22). Don't count him out yet. I think he could be even better at 400 than he has been in the 200.

But Fredericks and X-Man and Bolt? I'd guess if they were willing to pay the price of preparing properly they'd have had a shot at 43. Of course for Carter, well, he might be paying the price for other things instead.

We're talking about below 43, not 43.xx. If MJ couldn't do it, Fredericks wouldn't either. Bolt and X-Man still have a lot of untapped potential, so we'll have to wait and see. They may break 43, or they may end up never running another serious 400 in their life.