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The U.S. Sub-4:00 Mile Club

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  • malmo
    replied
    You're welcome.

    Would y'all like some mora?

    Leave a comment:


  • tandfman
    replied
    Great stuff, malmo. Thank you!

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  • malmo
    replied
    Frequency of sub 4:10 (blue) and sub 9:00 (red) per 100,000 participants. Based on the presumptive pool of cross country participants.


    Leave a comment:


  • malmo
    replied
    Originally posted by lonewolf
    Interesting stats, malmo, thanks.

    4:10 milers (blue) 9:00 2-milers (red)




    Combined average of 4:10/9:00

    Leave a comment:


  • lonewolf
    replied
    Interesting stats, malmo, thanks.

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  • malmo
    replied
    Originally posted by AS
    Originally posted by lonewolf
    All valid reasons why there have been so few 4 minute HS milers but I am still curious why there have been so few exceptions. after the 60s flurry.
    No one has mentioned the further factor of demographics... when did the number of HSers peak in the US?

    The late 60s "flurry" is definitely in the heart of the Baby Boomers cohort. Wikipedia tells us that "1957 was the baby boom peak with 4.3 million births"... those babies would have been HS Seniors around 1974... presumably it is slightly downhill from there...
    FWIW, those born in 1957 would have been high school seniors in 1975.

    http://mb.trackandfieldnews.com/discuss ... fhs#137662

    1970s:
    12,299,000 average HS aged children each year.
    3,887,352 participants in all sports (boys)
    95 4:10 milers
    84 9:00 2-milers

    Lets compare the other decades.

    1980s:
    10,780,000 HS kids (-12.4%)
    3,387,482 participants (-12.9%)
    75 4:10 milers (-21.1%)
    51 9:00 2-milers (-39.3%)

    1990s:
    11,111,000 HS kids (-9.7%)
    3,605,942 participants (-7.2%)
    36 4:10 milers (-62.1%)
    15 9:00 2-milers (-82.1%)


    15-17 Avg
    2000 11,933 11,111 -9.7%
    1999 12,048
    1998 11,314
    1997 11,953
    1996 11,617
    1995 11,401
    1994 10,560
    1993 10,247
    1992 10,114
    1991 9,923
    1990 9,912 10,780 -12.4%
    1989 10,020
    1988 10,379
    1987 10,944
    1986 11,149
    1985 11,024
    1984 10,711
    1983 10,768
    1982 11,131
    1981 11,757
    1980 11,835 12,299
    1979 12,190
    1978 12,346
    1977 12,472
    1976 12,550
    1975 12,531
    1974 12,566
    1973 12,309
    1972 12,283
    1971 11,906

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  • AS
    replied
    Originally posted by lonewolf
    All valid reasons why there have been so few 4 minute HS milers but I am still curious why there have been so few exceptions. after the 60s flurry.
    No one has mentioned the further factor of demographics... when did the number of HSers peak in the US?

    The late 60s "flurry" is definitely in the heart of the Baby Boomers cohort. Wikipedia tells us that "1957 was the baby boom peak with 4.3 million births"... those babies would have been HS Seniors around 1974... presumably it is slightly downhill from there...

    Leave a comment:


  • lonewolf
    replied
    All valid reasons why there have been so few 4 minute HS milers but I am still curious why there have been so few exceptions. after the 60s flurry.

    Leave a comment:


  • jsully
    replied
    Originally posted by mcgato
    I also believe that a high schooler in the 60s running 4:05 or under was very close to national class and had opportunities to run with collegiate and post-collegiate (if any) athletes in faster races. And when they were in those races, they were probably in the mix. I don't see high schoolers these days racing too often against their college and pro peers. There are recent exceptions, of course.
    Exactly, you beat me to this while I was pulling the data together!

    Besides all the other good reasons people posted, here's a look at the top all-time HS miles through 2007, with the event & place, followed by their best in high school race (e.g. Webb ran 3:53.43 for 5th at Pre, but "only" 4:01.81 against high schoolers).

    3:53.43 Alan Webb,Pre Classic 5th - 4:01.81
    3:55.3 Jim Ryun, AAU Nationals 1st - 3:58.3
    3:59.4 Tim Danielson, San Diego Invite 4th - 4:06.2
    3:59.8 Marty Liquori, AAU Nationals 7th - 4:08.0
    4:00.29 Don Sage, Pre Classic 9th - 4:04.32
    4:01.02 Steve Magness, Pre Classic 14th - 4:03.00c (4:01.58 for 1600m)
    4:01.5 Gerry Lindgren, Carreras Invite 3rd - 4:06.0

    Of the top 20 high school boy milers through 2007, only 4 got their PR in a high school race.

    Leave a comment:


  • tandfman
    replied
    www.hushpuppies.com

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  • Double R Bar
    replied
    Are Hush Puppies still made today?

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  • mcgato
    replied
    I also believe that a high schooler in the 60s running 4:05 or under was very close to national class and had opportunities to run with collegiate and post-collegiate (if any) athletes in faster races. And when they were in those races, they were probably in the mix. I don't see high schoolers these days racing too often against their college and pro peers. There are recent exceptions, of course.

    Leave a comment:


  • Dutra
    replied
    Originally posted by malmo
    Originally posted by Double R Bar
    Maybe another reason is that runners worked harder and ran more intervals back in the 1960's than they do now.
    Marty Liquori trained 85 miles per week in Hush Puppies when he was in high school. Do you see any runners training in Hush Puppies today? You needn't be Lt Columbo to figure out the answer to this mystery.
    HSers need to wear Hush Puppies is the obvious answer.

    Leave a comment:


  • Cyril
    replied
    It takes a very special talent to run sub 4. That is why only 312 Americans have ever been able to break the barrier.

    To do so in high school takes freakish talent. It also also requries an early maturing athlete who can handle killer workouts with very little background - usually only 3-4 years of training. To break four in high school requires the "to hell with slow development" attitude and just going gang-busters with little regard for the years to come.

    Perhaps we have become too preoccupied with slow, even, steady development to produce top-class high school milers.

    Leave a comment:


  • lonewolf
    replied
    I guess that solves it. Fewer guys with less incentive and alternate choices training less and running fewer mile races.

    Leave a comment:

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