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how about first 3 don't go from the Olympic Trials?

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Barto
    T
    Historians will have a field day with that statement, but I have no problem asserting that with our resources and talent pool 25% of the medals is not unreasonable.
    Completely unreasonable.

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by trackhead
      On the flip side, if Tyson had been preselected as the reigning world champion, he wouldn't have had to double at the Trials and could have called it a day after the 9.77/9.68w. It cuts both ways.
      He probably would not have run this fast as I presume with preselection he would be aiming to peak for the Olympics.

      Originally posted by malmo
      I disagree strongly. Personal bests at the Olympic level are rare.
      To a certain extent this depends on the event. Certainly tactical races should not be factored into this equation.

      Originally posted by malmo
      If logan thinks that those figures (10.6% of men and 16.9%) are "low low" then it's incumbent upon him to say what the numbers should be, and how he determined those numbers?
      Agreed that without the control of comparing to other Olympics that were deemed successful it is a worthless number. Actually, he should be comparing the numbers to an average Olympics, not a successful one.

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by Daisy
        Agreed that without the control of comparing to other Olympics that were deemed successful it is a worthless number. Actually, he should be comparing the numbers to an average Olympics, not a successful one.
        More importantly, if he feels the "success" of an Olympics is determined by an arbitrary metric, then if the Olympic Team fails to reach that mark, does that mean he tenders his resignation?

        Doug Logan needs to learn more about the sport, and our place in the larger global picture, before he set unreasonable standards for success. The world is changing, and the rest of the world will continue to encroach on our medal count in the future, whether we like it or not. Resources and participation are spreading around the globe. The talent pool is expanding. It's a very natural process.

        http://www.amazon.com/Drunkards-Walk-Ra ... 0375424040

        Book of the Month for Doug Logan. He should read it and heed its wisdom.

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by malmo
          Resources and participation are spreading around the globe. The talent pool is expanding. It's a very natural process.
          Yes, what was average before could be considered great now. Far more money and opportunities are opening the sport up all over the world.

          Comment


          • #20
            Can't we assume this is common knowledge? I mean I just work on the assumption that this is a given. And that is part of the reason I remain skeptical and cynical. There is no way this is not evident. So the question becomes why say the things he says, and hold the positions he claims to hold on topics? These are the questions I ask myself when I read what he says and thinks. Or at least publicly says

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by malmo
              I disagree strongly. Personal bests at the Olympic level are rare. If logan thinks that those figures (10.6% of men and 16.9%) are "low low" then it's incumbent upon him to say what the numbers should be, and how he determined those numbers?
              Some numbers from Beijing -
              Sprints - 48 finalists, 14 PRs (29.2%)
              Middle Distances - 40 finalists, 4 PRs (10.0%)
              Long Distances - 305 finalists, 26 PRs (8.5%)
              Long Distances (excluding marathons) - 129 finalists, 19 PRs (15.1%)
              Hurdles - 32 finalists, 5 PRs (15.6%)
              Jumps - 100 finaists, 12 PRs (12.0%)
              Throws - 99 finalists, 11 PRs (11.1%)
              Multis - 83 finalists, 12 PRs (14.4%)
              Walks - 158 finalists, 27 PRs (17.1%)

              Total - 865 finalists, 111 PRs (12.8%)
              Total (excluding road events) - 531 finalists, 77 PRs (14.5%)

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by malmo
                Originally posted by Barto
                T
                Historians will have a field day with that statement, but I have no problem asserting that with our resources and talent pool 25% of the medals is not unreasonable.
                Completely unreasonable.
                Barto's minimum reasonable expectations:
                100
                200
                400
                HH
                LH
                7 medals

                800
                1500
                3KST
                5K
                10K
                26.2
                0 medals

                4x100
                4x400
                2 medals

                Multi
                LJ
                TJ
                HJ
                PV
                6 medals

                SP
                DT
                HT
                JT
                1 medal

                16 out of 66 is 24% of the medals MINIMUM
                16 x 2 sexes is 32 medals

                Comment


                • #23
                  6 medals in women's jumping events? Has that ever happened?
                  Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Barto
                    Originally posted by malmo
                    Originally posted by Barto
                    T
                    Historians will have a field day with that statement, but I have no problem asserting that with our resources and talent pool 25% of the medals is not unreasonable.
                    Completely unreasonable.
                    16 out of 66 is 24% of the medals MINIMUM
                    16 x 2 sexes is 32 medals
                    I'm not saying it isn't a "reasonable expectation" to get 16 medals, in fact it is a reasonable expectation to see 25 or more. What is completely unreasonable, is to call it a failure by the federation if they do not bring home "X" amount of medals.

                    Put it this way, if you tossed a coin 20 times would it be a reasonable expectation that you'd get heads 10 times? If you only got heads 7 times is that "unreasonable" then? No, its probabilistic. The same forces of random expression, whether you like it or not, do manifest itself in your daily life, and in those of sporting events.

                    Over the years the US has averaged about 25 medals per Olympics with a predictable downward trend. We've had fewer than 20 medals only once since 1952, 14 in 2000. In Beijing, the US got 23 medals, right about what one would be expected.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      When it comes to strutting our stuff, we send the best we have, not who had... "a" ...good meet.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        I am very excited about this 're-inventing the wheel' stuff. I think worst-case scenario is what we already have, which, obviously, we can all live with. But if we are able to protect proven CHAMPIONS, who have demonstrated fitness, so much the better, BUT . . . as we have repeatedly pointed out before, 'committee' decisions should be avoided at all costs. There must be concrete criteria established, which MIGHT exempt one from the 3-past-the-post qualification.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          logan should stick to soccer...

                          hey, i've followed mls since day 1 and that league has never made money..

                          usa is a meritocracy...

                          performance on the day of choice is what counts...

                          other wise, corruption or favortism becomes the rule..

                          is this russia or america??

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Smoke
                            92 Carl is not a lock for gold, we sent the best sprinters in the world outside of Linford in 92. But I get the point..
                            you may have sent the "best sprinters" in the world there outside of linford, but they weren't Carl - wr holder 2 og, 3 wc & with infinite experience ( a bit like saying you sent the best sprinters to the 200 this year outside of bolt, but they didnt incluse tyson )

                            he started that year with a 10.12 ( - 0.6 ) & followed with a 10.06 ( +2.4 ) in early May - all heading towards <10 at trials & almost certainly better in og, given his history, but illness got him only 6th in 10.28 - he'd recovered by august as he won zurich in 10.07 ( -0.7 ) & 9.95 ( +4.4 ) in ?!denmark

                            when i saw linford win in 9.96, i'd have bet my bottom £ that a now recovered Carl wouda gone 9.90 - 9.92 there for gold

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by az2004

                              usa is a meritocracy...

                              performance on the day of choice is what counts...

                              other wise, corruption or favortism becomes the rule..

                              is this russia or america??
                              AMEN.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by az2004
                                usa is a meritocracy...
                                If you really think some UNdeserving athlete is going to get on the team, you've missed the obvious
                                Originally posted by az2004
                                performance on the day of choice is what counts...
                                performance, yes - one day, only at the OG
                                Originally posted by az2004
                                other wise, corruption or favortism becomes the rule.
                                s this russia or america??
                                Way to play up the false dichotomy . . . simply not true

                                Comment

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