16 year old runs 62:33 for half marathon

[doug091463]

chen shangdong of china with a DOB of july 8th 1992 ran a 62:33 half marathon.
source tilastopaja

[Jon]

Crazy to think that, in a country as big as China, a youth (U18) athlete holds the national senior record for the half marathon :shock:

[SQUACKEE]

Also crazy to think that a 16 year old could almost be a pacer for Geb the first half of a world marathon attempt! :shock:

[malmo]

And an 18 year old at 62:47 and a 17 yo at 63:57?

1 62:33 Chen Shangdong CHN 8.7.92 NR NJR NYR PB
2 62:47 Shi Jilin CHN 5.12.90 PB
3 63:57 Chen Jinlong CHN 5.7.91 PB
4 64:16 Ser-Od Bat-Ochir MGL 7.10.81 NR PB

Apply Ockham's Razor to any number of variables here.

At least the Mongolian is a legit 27 yo. 2:14 marathoner.

[Marlow]

Apply Ockham's Razor to any number of variables here.

Wouldn't the OR response be that in a nation of 1,200,000,000, we should EXPECT someone to be that good? Outliers in that population, even at 16yo, should be there.

[EPelle]

Isn:t the Razor:s test meant to establish priorities among two theories?

[malmo]

Isn:t the Razor:s test meant to establish priorities among two theories?

Yes, the theory that the ages are correct, versus the one that they aren't.

[malmo]

Apply Ockham's Razor to any number of variables here.

Wouldn't the OR response be that in a nation of 1,200,000,000, we should EXPECT someone to be that good? Outliers in that population, even at 16yo, should be there.

Sure, and it would be more likely that the outliers would show themselves at age 21,22, 23, etc. but they haven't.

[tandfman]

Isn:t the Razor:s test meant to establish priorities among two theories?

Yes, the theory that the ages are correct, versus the one that they aren't.

I would have applied it to the theory that the course was of correct length and not downhill, versus the course's missing one of those essential elements. In fact, I thought that's what you were referring to.

[Marlow]

Sure, and it would be more likely that the outliers would show themselves at age 21,22, 23, etc. but they haven't.

Not if he is the vanguard of a new wave of distance talent being systematically nurtured. He with the most talent will appear first, not just the ones with talent and experience/maturity. We all keep waiting for the Sleeping Giant to awaken (Liu notwithstanding), but when we have evidence he might be, we question it? (Not that the ladies of '93 don't give us pause)

[Conor Dary]

After the gymnastics age fiasco at the Olympics how can anyone one take these ages seriously?

P.S. After the 1993 Chinese 'women' nuttiness I take most of the Chinese performances with a huge grain of salt.

[kuha]

After the gymnastics age fiasco at the Olympics how can anyone one take these ages seriously?

P.S. After the 1993 Chinese 'women' nuttiness I take most of the Chinese performances with a huge grain of salt.

There's hardly enough salt available, in fact.

[Mennisco]

Other than the question of questionable age, is this really a Chinese male?

:P

[bf]

Almost a whole minute slower than the "age 16 record" of 61:35 by Faustin Baha Sulle(Tnz) . If only there were a reliable test (like "carbon dating") for age. Age records are an important (statistical) aspect of the whole sport, but there really have to be two listings in most of the running events - the "record", and the "verified" record. Why not... there's room for two.....