2009 Berlin WC: Biggest Non-Big 3 Mens' 100m Medal Threat?

[DexterDanner]

For the mens' 100m, I wanted to find out which athlete is projected as the most likely 2009 Berlin World Championship medal threat, aside from the Big 3 (Usain Bolt, Asafa Powell, Tyson Gay).
I decided that if there are three medals to contend for, then I should choose the top three athletes aside from the Big 3, from the most recent Olympics and from the most recent World Championships.

From the 2008 Beijing Olympics:
Richard Thompson
Walter Dix
Churandy Martina

From the 2007 Osaka World Championships:
Derrick Atkins
Olusoji Fasuba
Churandy Martina

If you feel that you can generate a poll with a more valid criteria selection to answer the “Who is the biggest mens' 100m non-Big 3 medal threat” question, then I don’t mind a similar poll being started, as I would welcome that rather than bashing my criteria selection.

[mike renfro]

Oh, I was going to say Asafa Powell. He can't be a big 3 at a major championship, based upon a pretty solid body of work in events which have rounds. He would be my flyer for a medal, but I certainly would not pick him in a contest which I felt serious about.

[eldrick]

ray stewart

[Powell]

Oh, I was going to say Asafa Powell. He can't be a big 3 at a major championship, based upon a pretty solid body of work in events which have rounds

Umm, he was comfortably in the top 3 in Osaka.

[Marlow]

My man, Walter Dix, is at the beginning of a nice little career. With a full year of uninjured work, he will emerge as Gay's successor (not that TG is gonna disappear soon) as USA #1. His turnover is incredible and though he's not big, his leg strength gives him sufficient stride-length to get the job done. The 9.91 will drop in the mid-to-low 9.8s and he will reapproach his 19.69, which was greatly aided by a wind at his back in the turn.

[mump boy]

ray stewart

my thoughts exactly

[eldrick]

My man, Walter Dix, is at the beginning of a nice little career. With a full year of uninjured work, he will emerge as Gay's successor (not that TG is gonna disappear soon) as USA #1. His turnover is incredible and though he's not big, his leg strength gives him sufficient stride-length to get the job done. The 9.91 will drop in the mid-to-low 9.8s and he will reapproach his 19.69, which was greatly aided by a wind at his back in the turn.

my thoughts exactly

you were there at his 19.69, but as gh reminds us, you assertion woud be correct & that clocking not pass the sniff test if every other guy in that race beat their 200m pb by a least 0.2s & more like 0.3s+

if at least 3 or 4 others didn't do so, then wind wasn't a big factor

anyhows, by simple arithmetic, for a guy who's equally strong at 100/200 ( his career at that point showed he was a better 100 than 200 guy ), the times shoud be ~ double

therefore, his 19.69 indicates latent ~ 9.85 ability at the time

this is further backed up when he ran 9.93 in ncaa race off a poor start & was no better than tied for 3rd at 60m with some other college guys ( probably meaning he wasn't much better than 6.55 - 6.60 at that point ) - decent start & pick-up that was a mid-9.8 in 0 wind

he got medals in peking off an injury hit season - if fit next year, i'd expect at least low-9.8 & repeat 19.6

[Marlow]

you were there at his 19.69, but as gh reminds us, you assertion woud be correct & that clocking not pass the sniff test if every other guy in that race beat their 200m pb by a least 0.2s & more like 0.3s+

Not all racers are created equal. His size, shape, and running style all contributed to his being able to take the greatest advantage of his wind. Plus, being on the outside, it was directly on his back at the start - overcoming inertia.

[eldrick]

Not sure why his back body surface shoud benefit more from a following wind than others in the race, unless of course his torso is shaped like a Catamaran sail ?! :P

Anyhows, at the very least lane 7 & 6 shouda got big PBs as a minimum requirement for a "wind theory"

[Marlow]

Not sure why his back body surface shoud benefit more from a following wind than others in the race, unless of course his torso is shaped like a Catamaran sail ?! :P

Anyhows, at the very least lane 7 & 6 shouda got big PBs as a minimum requirement for a "wind theory"

I can't cite chapter and verse of the Physics (nor do I know if it even exists). but what I saw was the perfect confluence of athlete and conditions. He'll have to improve to get there again (which I think he will).

[eldrick]

jrm has done plenty of work on it

http://myweb.lmu.edu/jmureika/track/cjp200m.pdf

he gives fixed assumptions of surface area of 0.40 - 0.50m^2 & 75 - 80kg for working numbers for his treatise

[AS]

Only one of the candidates made the final...