Who will hold the Men's Marathon WR at the end of 2009?

[joeltetreault]

A "Time Capsule" poll that we can dig out in a year:

With several people going for the WR in 2009 - Geb in Dubai, Lel/Wanjiru in London, Wanjiru and/or Geb possibly in Berlin, among others, who do you think willl be holding it on Dec 31, 2009? And what will the time be? (write-in)

[SQUACKEE]

Sammy. We have never seen in the history of the world a low 26 something 10k dude in his prime totally concentrating on da 26er. Im so exciting im in bunches. :lol:

[joeltetreault]

Forgot to add (for the interesting/excitement factor) that Sihine and Tadesse will be making their marathon debuts next year, though I don't think they will be in WR form for their first marathon.

Also interesting from the stats point of view is that if the WR falls in 2009, this will be the first time since 1963-1965 that the marathon world has fallen in three consecutive years:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon_w ... rogression

Between 1963 and 1965, the WR actually fell five times. Geb set the last two world records, both in Berlin ('07, '08).

[Atanvarno]

I think Geb will put it out of reach for good in Dubai.

[SQUACKEE]

I think Geb will put it out of reach for good in Dubai.

Geb better run at least 2:02 something then.

[gh]

More important question (echoing one that's in play this year): will the WR holder rank No. 1?

[Powell]

I think Geb will put it out of reach for good in Dubai.

Geb better run at least 2:02 something then.

IMO he'd have to run even faster than that to put it out of Wanjiru's reach.

[SQUACKEE]

I think Geb will put it out of reach for good in Dubai.

Geb better run at least 2:02 something then.

IMO he'd have to run even faster than that to put it out of Wanjiru's reach.

You might be right, thats why i posted "at least". My fantasy- both healthy on the starting line at London with perfect conditions.

[joeltetreault]

More important question (echoing one that's in play this year): will the WR holder rank No. 1?

My guess is that the panel will make Wanjiiru #1 over Geb. There is precedent for the WR holder not getting #1 in previous rankings:

1999 - Khannouchi sets WR but gets second in rankings to Joseph Chebet (won Boston and New York that year).

1998 - Ronaldo da Costa sets 2:06:05 WR, but gets second in rankings to Ondoro Osoro.

1985 - Carlos Lopes (2:07:12) gets second to Steve Jones in a reversal of last year's outcome.

*** 1984 - Steve Jones (2:08:05) gets second to Carlos Lopes (Olympic champ)

1981 - Robert de Castella (2:08:18) gets second to Salazar.

Granted the seasons of all the athletes above are going to be slightly different cricumstances than the Geb/Wanjiru ones, but just wanted to highlight this shallow statistic.

Marathon WR progression:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon_w ... rogression

TFN Marathon Rankings:
http://www.trackandfieldnews.com/rankin ... anking.pdf