Another pointless off-season thread: the winners in Berlin

[nevetsllim]

I know the success rate will be about 10% but I'm bored and prediction games are always fun!

100m - Bolt/Stewart
200m - Bolt/Simpson
400m - Wariner/Sanders
800m - Rudisha/Jelimo
1500m - Kiprop/Dobriskey
5000m - Kipchoge/Dibaba
10000m - Sihine/Dibaba
Marathon - Geb/Radcliffe
Marathon team event - Eritrea/Kenya
110/100mH - Robles/Jones
400mH - Jackson/Walker
3000mSC - Koech/Dominguez
4x100m - JAM/JAM
4x400m - USA/USA
LJ - Saladino/Gomes
TJ - Evora/Lebedeva
HJ - Silnov/Friedrich
PV - Lukyanenko/Isinbayeva
SP - Hoffa/Vili
DT - Harting/Dietzsch
HT - Kozmus/Lysenko
JT - Thorkildsen/Spotakova
20kmW - Fernandez/Kalmykova
50kmW - Deakes
Multi-events - Suarez/Chernova

[jjimbojames]

Some VERY 'interesting' choices there, Nevs :wink:

Am liking your w400m winner - I really hope she gets a year injury-free; for me, she's (along with Felix) the next 48.xx girl...

[nevetsllim]

Some VERY 'interesting' choices there, Nevs :wink:

Am liking your w400m winner - I really hope she gets a year injury-free; for me, she's (along with Felix) the next 48.xx girl...

I agree - I predict neither Ohu or Richards will hold their respective national 400m records at the end of 2009.

[AS]

Re: Another pointless off-season thread: the winners in Berl

I know the success rate will be about 10% but I'm bored and prediction games are always fun!

100m - Bolt/Stewart
200m - Bolt/Simpson
400m - Wariner/Sanders
800m - Jelimo/Rudisha

Expecting those last two to have had some major transformative surgery over winter are you?

[nevetsllim]

Re: Another pointless off-season thread: the winners in Berl

I know the success rate will be about 10% but I'm bored and prediction games are always fun!

100m - Bolt/Stewart
200m - Bolt/Simpson
400m - Wariner/Sanders
800m - Jelimo/Rudisha

Expecting those last two to have had some major transformative surgery over winter are you?

ops:

[eldrick]

Some VERY 'interesting' choices there, Nevs :wink:

Am liking your w400m winner - I really hope she gets a year injury-free; for me, she's (along with Felix) the next 48.xx girl...

I agree - I predict neither Ohu or Richards will hold their respective national 400m records at the end of 2009.

ohugo doesn't hold her national record :wink:

or are you expecting sanders to break cook's 49.40

sanders doesn't look capable of <49.40 off this year's performances but hopefully no injury this winter

must admit though, although <49 has been run off >22 ( notably sanya - although her 100m time is similar to felix, a 21.8 gal - by rights, similar 100m time & much better 400 time indicates 22.1+ is nonsense ) it's not usually feasible unless you bring kratoch like 800 endurance

however, i don't see anyone beating sanya's 48.70 for a long time

to me that's the bona fide "wr" - run in cold, inclement weather & probably nearer 48.5 on nice warm day

no one has run faster than that who's not '80s commie or on dubious atlanta track

[Jon]

Last year's version of this thread proved just how difficult it is to "predict" (if it can even be called that) these things from this far out. A few people got things right, of course, and when they were made most of the predicitons seemed very plausible. But when all was said and done and run in Beijing, some of these 'early predictions' looked kinda silly. I'll enter all of the predicition contests going in the weeks leading up to Berlin, but if I were to draw up a 'form chart' this far out, it would simply comprise athletes who are merit-ranked world No.1 for the 2008 season, and/or athletes who won their events in Beijing.

[jjimbojames]

Some VERY 'interesting' choices there, Nevs :wink:

Am liking your w400m winner - I really hope she gets a year injury-free; for me, she's (along with Felix) the next 48.xx girl...

I agree - I predict neither Ohu or Richards will hold their respective national 400m records at the end of 2009.

ohugo doesn't hold her national record :wink:

or are you expecting sanders to break cook's 49.40

sanders doesn't look capable of <49.40 off this year's performances but hopefully no injury this winter

must admit though, although <49 has been run off >22 ( notably sanya - although her 100m time is similar to felix, a 21.8 gal - by rights, similar 100m time & much better 400 time indicates 22.1+ is nonsense ) it's not usually feasible unless you bring kratoch like 800 endurance

however, i don't see anyone beating sanya's 48.70 for a long time

to me that's the bona fide "wr" - run in cold, inclement weather & probably nearer 48.5 on nice warm day

no one has run faster than that who's not '80s commie or on dubious atlanta track

OK, I'll bite - how much do you think that Atlanta track was worth - Perec went 48.25 - do you really think the track was good enough to warrant her performance worse than Sanya's (admittedly great) 48.7?!?!?!!?

Secondly - Felix is surely capable of at least close to 48.7. She has similar 100m time, better 200m and a better 400r split is far superior - though admittedly, she was in a better position to get the time than Sanya

As for Sanders - on '07 form, she should have been close to Kathy's record this year. A good winter and it's hers in '09

[eldrick]

rock hard tracks are like speedo swimsuits

depends on how well you use them

ask a swimmer called hoff

anywhere between 1 - 1.5% i'd guestimate on how much familiarity you had with the track compared to rivals or your cadence

felix's 400m potential is based on a split - splits can vary from open times by virtually any measure you like : 0.7 - 1.1s i've seen mentioned for flying start difference

in addition, "perfect" drafting can take maybe 1.25s off 400m

davian ran a 43.51 anchor & he was no 44.2 guy - try 44.83 & only 45.01 in same year as anchor !

[Marlow]

if I were to draw up a 'form chart' this far out, it would simply comprise athletes who are merit-ranked world No.1 for the 2008 season, and/or athletes who won their events in Beijing.

Why? Can't you make educated guesses as to who's on the rise and who's not? Who was 'off' this year, but should return to 'norm' next? If you look at how many times the form charts this year were off, can't you infer reasons as to why and use that information to make better picks next time? I already know the answers to these questions and so do you. It matters not a whit what we predict now, but it IS fun to go back and look at the hits and the misses. What's to lose? :twisted:

I go!

100m - Bolt/VCB
200m - Bolt/Felix
400m - Wariner/Richards
800m - Kaki/Jelimo
1500m - Choge/Lagat
3000mSC - Shaheen (comeback!)/Galkina
5000m - Bekele/Defar
10000m - Bekele/Dibaba
Marathon - Geb/Radcliffe
110/100mH - Robles/Lolo
400mH - Clement/Walker
4x100m - JAM/JAM yet
4x400m - USA/USA
LJ - Saladino/Gomes
TJ - Evora/Lebedeva
HJ - Silnov/Vlasic
PV - Lukyanenko/Isinbayeva
SP - Hoffa/Vili
DT - Kanter/Barrios
HT - Kozmus/Lysenko
JT - Thorkildsen/Spotakova
Multi-events - Clay/Fountain

[LopenUupunut]

Re: Another pointless off-season thread

As last year, I'll intentionally throw in a couple names who probably won't win but will earn me further reputation as a predictionary genius if they do :wink: I think Nevets picked the same approach, which shouldn't be surprising since he's usually clever and sensible :wink:

100m - Bolt/Campbell-Brown (Martina if Bolt doesn't double)
200m - Bolt/Felix
400m - Merritt/Sanders
800m - Yego/Jelimo
1500m - Kiprop/Burka
5000m - Lagat/Dibaba
10000m - Masai/Dibaba
Marathon - Röthlin/Ndereba
110/100mH - Robles/McLellan
400mH - Narisako/Rawlinson
Steeple - Kipruto/Samitova
4x100 - JAM/JAM
4x400 - USA/USA
LJ - Saladino/Lebedeva
TJ - Giralt/Savigne
HJ - Silnov/Vlasic
PV - Lukyanenko/Isinbayeva
SP - Mikhnevich/Vili
DT - Harting/Barrios
HT - Kozmus/Zhang
JT - Järvenpää/Spotakova
20k - Fernandez/Kaniskina
50k - Schwazer
Multi - Clay/Schwarzkopf

[Speedster]

Re: Another pointless off-season thread

As last year, I'll intentionally throw in a couple names who probably won't win but will earn me further reputation as a predictionary genius if they do :wink: I think Nevets picked the same approach, which shouldn't be surprising since he's usually clever and sensible :wink:

100m - Bolt/Campbell-Brown (Martina if Bolt doesn't double)
200m - Bolt/Felix
400m - Merritt/Sanders
800m - Yego/Jelimo
1500m - Kiprop/Burka
5000m - Lagat/Dibaba
10000m - Masai/Dibaba
Marathon - Röthlin/Ndereba
110/100mH - Robles/McLellan
400mH - Narisako/Rawlinson
Steeple - Kipruto/Samitova
4x100 - JAM/JAM
4x400 - USA/USA
LJ - Saladino/Lebedeva
TJ - Giralt/Savigne
HJ - Silnov/Vlasic
PV - Lukyanenko/Isinbayeva
SP - Mikhnevich/Vili
DT - Harting/Barrios
HT - Kozmus/Zhang
JT - Järvenpää/Spotakova
20k - Fernandez/Kaniskina
50k - Schwazer
Multi - Clay/Schwarzkopf

As much as I would love to see two Aussie women take the hurdles titles, I don't think its likely, both potential medalists? I hope so!

I want to see VCB double, she looked great this year and with Felix looking longer who is going to challenge her? I am looking for Fraser to back up her Beijing win in Berlin and have a great race between the two.

[doug091463]

okay i have made a fool of myself countless times before.

100m- asafa powell/bianca knight
200m- bolt/knight
400m- merritt/felix
800m- kaki/jelimo
1500- kiprop/jelimo
steeple- koech/bisibori
5k- choge/defar
10k-k. bekele/dibaba
marathon-lel/w.kidane
marathon team men-kenya, women britain if radcliffe, yamauchi and pavey run.
110 hurdles- robles/d. cherry
400 hurdles- clement/queen harrison
4x100- jamaica/jamaica
4x400 -usausa
pv-hooker/isi
lj-saladino/kluft
shot- nelson/villi
hammer- morofushi/zhang
multis- clay/ fountain
i got bianca knight as my new star this year, i have kidane winning the marathon despite the fact she has never ran one, and that she has run poorly in her 2 races coming back from a 3 year maternity leave, i am still swearing by her potential in the marathon, and i pick jelimo to win the 800-1500 double because as a fan i want to see her (and t. dibaba and defar) run the 1500 which for the women is a stagnant event, even though i dont think she will even try a serious 1500 much less the world championships.
it is so early some picks could retire/ some will change events

[rumbleyoungmanrumble]

ohugo doesn't hold her national record :wink:

or are you expecting sanders to break cook's 49.40

sanders doesn't look capable of <49.40 off this year's performances but hopefully no injury this winter

must admit though, although <49 has been run off >22 ( notably sanya - although her 100m time is similar to felix, a 21.8 gal - by rights, similar 100m time & much better 400 time indicates 22.1+ is nonsense ) it's not usually feasible unless you bring kratoch like 800 endurance

however, i don't see anyone beating sanya's 48.70 for a long time

to me that's the bona fide "wr" - run in cold, inclement weather & probably nearer 48.5 on nice warm day

no one has run faster than that who's not '80s commie or on dubious atlanta track

49,40? 49,43, yes?
Not often mentioned, but Cook never ran again within a second of that time. But she retired early?

[DentyCracker]

100m - Bolt/Frazer
200m - Bolt/Campbell
400m - Merritt/Felix
800m - Kaki/Jelimo
1500m - Webb/Jamal
5000m - Kipchoge/Defar
10000m - Bekele/Dibaba
Marathon - Geb/Radcliffe
110/100mH - Robles/Jones
400mH - Jackson/Walker
3000mSC - Shaheen/Galkina
4x100m - JAM/JAM
4x400m - USA/USA
LJ - Saladino/Gomes
TJ - Evora/Lebedeva
HJ - Thomas/Vlasic
PV - Walker/Isinbayeva
SP - Hoffa/Vili
DT - Harting/Dietzsch
HT - Kozmus/Lysenko
JT - Pitkamaki/Spotakova
20kmW - Fernandez/Kalmykova
50kmW - Deakes
Multi-events - Clay/Sotherton