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Another pointless off-season thread: the winners in Berlin

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  • Another pointless off-season thread: the winners in Berlin

    I know the success rate will be about 10% but I'm bored and prediction games are always fun!

    100m - Bolt/Stewart
    200m - Bolt/Simpson
    400m - Wariner/Sanders
    800m - Rudisha/Jelimo
    1500m - Kiprop/Dobriskey
    5000m - Kipchoge/Dibaba
    10000m - Sihine/Dibaba
    Marathon - Geb/Radcliffe
    Marathon team event - Eritrea/Kenya
    110/100mH - Robles/Jones
    400mH - Jackson/Walker
    3000mSC - Koech/Dominguez
    4x100m - JAM/JAM
    4x400m - USA/USA
    LJ - Saladino/Gomes
    TJ - Evora/Lebedeva
    HJ - Silnov/Friedrich
    PV - Lukyanenko/Isinbayeva
    SP - Hoffa/Vili
    DT - Harting/Dietzsch
    HT - Kozmus/Lysenko
    JT - Thorkildsen/Spotakova
    20kmW - Fernandez/Kalmykova
    50kmW - Deakes
    Multi-events - Suarez/Chernova
    http://twitter.com/Trackside2011

  • #2
    Some VERY 'interesting' choices there, Nevs :wink:

    Am liking your w400m winner - I really hope she gets a year injury-free; for me, she's (along with Felix) the next 48.xx girl...

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by jjimbojames
      Some VERY 'interesting' choices there, Nevs :wink:

      Am liking your w400m winner - I really hope she gets a year injury-free; for me, she's (along with Felix) the next 48.xx girl...
      I agree - I predict neither Ohu or Richards will hold their respective national 400m records at the end of 2009.
      http://twitter.com/Trackside2011

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Another pointless off-season thread: the winners in Berl

        Originally posted by nevetsllim
        I know the success rate will be about 10% but I'm bored and prediction games are always fun!

        100m - Bolt/Stewart
        200m - Bolt/Simpson
        400m - Wariner/Sanders
        800m - Jelimo/Rudisha
        Expecting those last two to have had some major transformative surgery over winter are you?

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Another pointless off-season thread: the winners in Berl

          Originally posted by AS
          Originally posted by nevetsllim
          I know the success rate will be about 10% but I'm bored and prediction games are always fun!

          100m - Bolt/Stewart
          200m - Bolt/Simpson
          400m - Wariner/Sanders
          800m - Jelimo/Rudisha
          Expecting those last two to have had some major transformative surgery over winter are you?
          ops:
          http://twitter.com/Trackside2011

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by nevetsllim
            Originally posted by jjimbojames
            Some VERY 'interesting' choices there, Nevs :wink:

            Am liking your w400m winner - I really hope she gets a year injury-free; for me, she's (along with Felix) the next 48.xx girl...
            I agree - I predict neither Ohu or Richards will hold their respective national 400m records at the end of 2009.
            ohugo doesn't hold her national record :wink:

            or are you expecting sanders to break cook's 49.40

            sanders doesn't look capable of <49.40 off this year's performances but hopefully no injury this winter

            must admit though, although <49 has been run off >22 ( notably sanya - although her 100m time is similar to felix, a 21.8 gal - by rights, similar 100m time & much better 400 time indicates 22.1+ is nonsense ) it's not usually feasible unless you bring kratoch like 800 endurance

            however, i don't see anyone beating sanya's 48.70 for a long time

            to me that's the bona fide "wr" - run in cold, inclement weather & probably nearer 48.5 on nice warm day

            no one has run faster than that who's not '80s commie or on dubious atlanta track

            Comment


            • #7
              Last year's version of this thread proved just how difficult it is to "predict" (if it can even be called that) these things from this far out. A few people got things right, of course, and when they were made most of the predicitons seemed very plausible. But when all was said and done and run in Beijing, some of these 'early predictions' looked kinda silly. I'll enter all of the predicition contests going in the weeks leading up to Berlin, but if I were to draw up a 'form chart' this far out, it would simply comprise athletes who are merit-ranked world No.1 for the 2008 season, and/or athletes who won their events in Beijing.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by eldrick
                Originally posted by nevetsllim
                Originally posted by jjimbojames
                Some VERY 'interesting' choices there, Nevs :wink:

                Am liking your w400m winner - I really hope she gets a year injury-free; for me, she's (along with Felix) the next 48.xx girl...
                I agree - I predict neither Ohu or Richards will hold their respective national 400m records at the end of 2009.
                ohugo doesn't hold her national record :wink:

                or are you expecting sanders to break cook's 49.40

                sanders doesn't look capable of <49.40 off this year's performances but hopefully no injury this winter

                must admit though, although <49 has been run off >22 ( notably sanya - although her 100m time is similar to felix, a 21.8 gal - by rights, similar 100m time & much better 400 time indicates 22.1+ is nonsense ) it's not usually feasible unless you bring kratoch like 800 endurance

                however, i don't see anyone beating sanya's 48.70 for a long time

                to me that's the bona fide "wr" - run in cold, inclement weather & probably nearer 48.5 on nice warm day

                no one has run faster than that who's not '80s commie or on dubious atlanta track
                OK, I'll bite - how much do you think that Atlanta track was worth - Perec went 48.25 - do you really think the track was good enough to warrant her performance worse than Sanya's (admittedly great) 48.7?!?!?!!?

                Secondly - Felix is surely capable of at least close to 48.7. She has similar 100m time, better 200m and a better 400r split is far superior - though admittedly, she was in a better position to get the time than Sanya

                As for Sanders - on '07 form, she should have been close to Kathy's record this year. A good winter and it's hers in '09

                Comment


                • #9
                  rock hard tracks are like speedo swimsuits

                  depends on how well you use them

                  ask a swimmer called hoff

                  anywhere between 1 - 1.5% i'd guestimate on how much familiarity you had with the track compared to rivals or your cadence

                  felix's 400m potential is based on a split - splits can vary from open times by virtually any measure you like : 0.7 - 1.1s i've seen mentioned for flying start difference

                  in addition, "perfect" drafting can take maybe 1.25s off 400m

                  davian ran a 43.51 anchor & he was no 44.2 guy - try 44.83 & only 45.01 in same year as anchor !

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Jon
                    if I were to draw up a 'form chart' this far out, it would simply comprise athletes who are merit-ranked world No.1 for the 2008 season, and/or athletes who won their events in Beijing.
                    Why? Can't you make educated guesses as to who's on the rise and who's not? Who was 'off' this year, but should return to 'norm' next? If you look at how many times the form charts this year were off, can't you infer reasons as to why and use that information to make better picks next time? I already know the answers to these questions and so do you. It matters not a whit what we predict now, but it IS fun to go back and look at the hits and the misses. What's to lose? :twisted:

                    I go!

                    100m - Bolt/VCB
                    200m - Bolt/Felix
                    400m - Wariner/Richards
                    800m - Kaki/Jelimo
                    1500m - Choge/Lagat
                    3000mSC - Shaheen (comeback!)/Galkina
                    5000m - Bekele/Defar
                    10000m - Bekele/Dibaba
                    Marathon - Geb/Radcliffe
                    110/100mH - Robles/Lolo
                    400mH - Clement/Walker
                    4x100m - JAM/JAM yet
                    4x400m - USA/USA
                    LJ - Saladino/Gomes
                    TJ - Evora/Lebedeva
                    HJ - Silnov/Vlasic
                    PV - Lukyanenko/Isinbayeva
                    SP - Hoffa/Vili
                    DT - Kanter/Barrios
                    HT - Kozmus/Lysenko
                    JT - Thorkildsen/Spotakova
                    Multi-events - Clay/Fountain

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Another pointless off-season thread

                      As last year, I'll intentionally throw in a couple names who probably won't win but will earn me further reputation as a predictionary genius if they do :wink: I think Nevets picked the same approach, which shouldn't be surprising since he's usually clever and sensible :wink:

                      100m - Bolt/Campbell-Brown (Martina if Bolt doesn't double)
                      200m - Bolt/Felix
                      400m - Merritt/Sanders
                      800m - Yego/Jelimo
                      1500m - Kiprop/Burka
                      5000m - Lagat/Dibaba
                      10000m - Masai/Dibaba
                      Marathon - Röthlin/Ndereba
                      110/100mH - Robles/McLellan
                      400mH - Narisako/Rawlinson
                      Steeple - Kipruto/Samitova
                      4x100 - JAM/JAM
                      4x400 - USA/USA
                      LJ - Saladino/Lebedeva
                      TJ - Giralt/Savigne
                      HJ - Silnov/Vlasic
                      PV - Lukyanenko/Isinbayeva
                      SP - Mikhnevich/Vili
                      DT - Harting/Barrios
                      HT - Kozmus/Zhang
                      JT - Järvenpää/Spotakova
                      20k - Fernandez/Kaniskina
                      50k - Schwazer
                      Multi - Clay/Schwarzkopf

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Another pointless off-season thread

                        Originally posted by LopenUupunut
                        As last year, I'll intentionally throw in a couple names who probably won't win but will earn me further reputation as a predictionary genius if they do :wink: I think Nevets picked the same approach, which shouldn't be surprising since he's usually clever and sensible :wink:

                        100m - Bolt/Campbell-Brown (Martina if Bolt doesn't double)
                        200m - Bolt/Felix
                        400m - Merritt/Sanders
                        800m - Yego/Jelimo
                        1500m - Kiprop/Burka
                        5000m - Lagat/Dibaba
                        10000m - Masai/Dibaba
                        Marathon - Röthlin/Ndereba
                        110/100mH - Robles/McLellan
                        400mH - Narisako/Rawlinson
                        Steeple - Kipruto/Samitova
                        4x100 - JAM/JAM
                        4x400 - USA/USA
                        LJ - Saladino/Lebedeva
                        TJ - Giralt/Savigne
                        HJ - Silnov/Vlasic
                        PV - Lukyanenko/Isinbayeva
                        SP - Mikhnevich/Vili
                        DT - Harting/Barrios
                        HT - Kozmus/Zhang
                        JT - Järvenpää/Spotakova
                        20k - Fernandez/Kaniskina
                        50k - Schwazer
                        Multi - Clay/Schwarzkopf
                        As much as I would love to see two Aussie women take the hurdles titles, I don't think its likely, both potential medalists? I hope so!

                        I want to see VCB double, she looked great this year and with Felix looking longer who is going to challenge her? I am looking for Fraser to back up her Beijing win in Berlin and have a great race between the two.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          okay i have made a fool of myself countless times before.

                          100m- asafa powell/bianca knight
                          200m- bolt/knight
                          400m- merritt/felix
                          800m- kaki/jelimo
                          1500- kiprop/jelimo
                          steeple- koech/bisibori
                          5k- choge/defar
                          10k-k. bekele/dibaba
                          marathon-lel/w.kidane
                          marathon team men-kenya, women britain if radcliffe, yamauchi and pavey run.
                          110 hurdles- robles/d. cherry
                          400 hurdles- clement/queen harrison
                          4x100- jamaica/jamaica
                          4x400 -usausa
                          pv-hooker/isi
                          lj-saladino/kluft
                          shot- nelson/villi
                          hammer- morofushi/zhang
                          multis- clay/ fountain
                          i got bianca knight as my new star this year, i have kidane winning the marathon despite the fact she has never ran one, and that she has run poorly in her 2 races coming back from a 3 year maternity leave, i am still swearing by her potential in the marathon, and i pick jelimo to win the 800-1500 double because as a fan i want to see her (and t. dibaba and defar) run the 1500 which for the women is a stagnant event, even though i dont think she will even try a serious 1500 much less the world championships.
                          it is so early some picks could retire/ some will change events

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by eldrick
                            ohugo doesn't hold her national record :wink:

                            or are you expecting sanders to break cook's 49.40

                            sanders doesn't look capable of <49.40 off this year's performances but hopefully no injury this winter

                            must admit though, although <49 has been run off >22 ( notably sanya - although her 100m time is similar to felix, a 21.8 gal - by rights, similar 100m time & much better 400 time indicates 22.1+ is nonsense ) it's not usually feasible unless you bring kratoch like 800 endurance

                            however, i don't see anyone beating sanya's 48.70 for a long time

                            to me that's the bona fide "wr" - run in cold, inclement weather & probably nearer 48.5 on nice warm day

                            no one has run faster than that who's not '80s commie or on dubious atlanta track
                            49,40? 49,43, yes?
                            Not often mentioned, but Cook never ran again within a second of that time. But she retired early?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              100m - Bolt/Frazer
                              200m - Bolt/Campbell
                              400m - Merritt/Felix
                              800m - Kaki/Jelimo
                              1500m - Webb/Jamal
                              5000m - Kipchoge/Defar
                              10000m - Bekele/Dibaba
                              Marathon - Geb/Radcliffe
                              110/100mH - Robles/Jones
                              400mH - Jackson/Walker
                              3000mSC - Shaheen/Galkina
                              4x100m - JAM/JAM
                              4x400m - USA/USA
                              LJ - Saladino/Gomes
                              TJ - Evora/Lebedeva
                              HJ - Thomas/Vlasic
                              PV - Walker/Isinbayeva
                              SP - Hoffa/Vili
                              DT - Harting/Dietzsch
                              HT - Kozmus/Lysenko
                              JT - Pitkamaki/Spotakova
                              20kmW - Fernandez/Kalmykova
                              50kmW - Deakes
                              Multi-events - Clay/Sotherton
                              why don't people pronounce vowels anymore

                              Comment

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