Should Defar try 1500m or 10k in Berlin next year?

[liuxuan]

Defar has only ever raced at 3000m and 5000m seriously, im not sure if she has run a 1500m or 10k before. Do you think she should tackle one of these events more seriously next year and maybe even enter in Berlin??

the reason im asking is because to be honest, i would fancy dibaba over her at the 5K, Dibaba on the last 400m just seems to have that little bit of edge. Also, Defar and Dibaba are undoubtedly the two most talented 5000m runners we have ever seen, and they have came to the fore at the same time. However, Dibaba is building such a greater legacy because she doubles up, wheras Defar is going to be remembered in the shadow of Dibaba a. because Dibaba has had the edge in the big championship races apart from Athens and b. because she has another event which she is cleaning up in.

Do you think Defar could do the same in the 1500m?? I reckon she has as good finishing speed as Jamal and she seems to have more grit and championship mentality.

[doug091463]

yes defar or t. dibaba could probably go down to the 1500 and win the world championships, defar has run a 4:06 for 1500 in winning a race a couple of years ago. the thing with the ethiopian runners they seem to be the opposite of the usa runners in that the usa runners try to run the shortest events 100 and 200 and the ones running the distances are often thought of as rejects who couldnt make it in the shorter events, with the ethiopian runners they like the longer events even when they are very successful at middle distance examples kutre dulecha who ran a 3:58 for 1500 a few years ago is running 2:30 marathons now, meskerem legesse who ran 2:01 indoors as a 16 year old and 4:03 for 1500 as a junior is now running 5, 10, and even half marathons all across the usa at a much lower level than she was at 800 and 1500. markos genetti ran his first 1500 when he was told he had not been selected for the ethiopian world championship 5k team, he ran 3:33 for 1500 on only a couple of days notice on his first 1500.

fact ethiopia only had 2 women qualify with even a b standard for the olympic 1500, that is way underachieving for a country with that many excellent 5k runners.

as i said at the beginning defar and dibaba would have an excellent chance to win a world 1500 title, but history shows they are more likely to try a top marathon rather than a serious 1500.

the good news is the 2 top ethiopian men have both run a 1500 geb at 3:31 indoors second only to el g's record and k. bekele ran one in 3:32 because it fit into his schedule, but neither has devoted a whole outdoor season to the 1500.

also with defar i am sure she thinks she is at least as good as t.dibaba and will be training with fire in her to reclaim the top 5k spot and both MAY attempt a 10k world record in utrecht in june

[nevetsllim]

Yes, I'm sure if Defar gets the tactics right, she could win the 1500m in Berlin but I feel she would benefit from a fast race if she did run at the WCh. Burka, who is a 3000/5000m runner can run sub-4:00 and Defar is a bit better than Burka.

[gh]

Given that Defar is 12-11 lifetime over Dibaba in the 5000, it's perhaps just a bit premature to be writing her off in that event. (although the pendulum has swung more to Dibaba's favor in the last few years)

[mump boy]

firstly welcome back lixy :-)

i would love to see either of them at 1500 more so defar as dibi has her hands full elsewhere. i often suprises me how unadventurous athletes are would;t you just want to gived one a go just for fun if nothing else ?

[nevetsllim]

Jamal is the only athlete to have explored all the distances. She's a 1:57 800m runner, 1500m world champs, 8:28 3000m runner (won Oslo and Zurich 2005). a 14:51 (?) 5000m runner and a 71-minute half-marathoner.

I'd love to see Diby and Defar run a 1500m seriously as well. Defar said she could run 3:58 so why not do it?

[doug091463]

jelimo will run a mile on february 21st, what would be even better is in july or august have jelimo run a 1500 a distance she would be moving up to and have defar and dibaba move down to the 1500 for that race, to make it even better have a rabbit bringing them on a sub 3:55 pace and just to make sure we dont get a donovan bailey vs michael johnson match race where one quits because they are losing and the other jogs to victory have jelimo, defar and dibaba in with the top 10 for 1500 meter specialist, now that would be a fun race.

[mump boy]

jelimo will run a mile on february 21st, what would be even better is in july or august have jelimo run a 1500 a distance she would be moving up to and have defar and dibaba move down to the 1500 for that race, to make it even better have a rabbit bringing them on a sub 3:55 pace and just to make sure we dont get a donovan bailey vs michael johnson match race where one quits because they are losing and the other jogs to victory have jelimo, defar and dibaba in with the top 10 for 1500 meter specialist, now that would be a fun race.

i'm not convinced of jelimos potential over 1500 yet she's only just moved up from 400 !!! i know she's strong but it takes some serious endurance to run 3.55. it's like expecting kratochvilova to run 3.55.

she's full of suprises thought so i wouldn't rule it out :-)

[eldrick]

defar certainly shoud

at worst i'd expect a 3'55 ( properly paced with komy going 63/2'06/3'09 & kick ( actually kick at the bell off a 2'53 ) & at best at the 3'52 level

unlike geb who had no chance of beating hicham & therefore no point in moving down to 1500, there is no gal currently capable of running 3'55, so defar coud dominate this event

[Gleason]

Should Defar Run 1500 or 10K in Berlin Next Year?

jelimo will run a mile on february 21st, what would be even better is in july or august have jelimo run a 1500 a distance she would be moving up to and have defar and dibaba move down to the 1500 for that race, to make it even better have a rabbit bringing them on a sub 3:55 pace and just to make sure we dont get a donovan bailey vs michael johnson match race where one quits because they are losing and the other jogs to victory have jelimo, defar and dibaba in with the top 10 for 1500 meter specialist, now that would be a fun race.

i'm not convinced of jelimos potential over 1500 yet she's only just moved up from 400 !!! i know she's strong but it takes some serious endurance to run 3.55. it's like expecting kratochvilova to run 3.55.

she's full of suprises thought so i wouldn't rule it out :-)

Kratochvilova was ranked # 6 in 1981 T&FN 100 with 11.09 & defeated Koch in 1983 European Cup 200, so she was a sprinter who moved up to 800. Jelimo was world ranked in nothing before 2008.

I agree with gh about Defar & suggest 3 strategies:

1. Win WCh 5000 by settting WR pace (eg. 68 second laps) in the final to exploit Dibaba's fatigue from 10K. Train & race as a 5000 pace setter in 2009.

2. Test her endurance by running WCh XC. I know that 8K isn't 10K, but hills make it more of an endurance contest. 2008 WCh was won in 25:10. IF Defar defeats Dibaba there, she should go for 10K & do a Spring WCh "A" qualifying track race.

3. Run several 1500s in May, June & July. I counted 10 Grand Prix races in 2008. IF she runs sub 4:00, she could decide if she wants to do 1500 as a pace setter or 1500/5000 double which would be reasonable only if she decides to run a wait & kick strategy. That WCh schedule is:
Tuesday 18Aug 12:05 1500 heats
Wednesday 19Aug 10:45 5000 heats
Friday 21Aug 20:00 1500 semis
Saturday 22Aug 19:35 5000 FINAL
Sunday 23Aug 1500 1500 FINAL

I hope that she eschews a repeat of her 2008 OG strategy & chooses 1 of the above.

[nevetsllim]

jelimo will run a mile on february 21st, what would be even better is in july or august have jelimo run a 1500 a distance she would be moving up to and have defar and dibaba move down to the 1500 for that race, to make it even better have a rabbit bringing them on a sub 3:55 pace and just to make sure we dont get a donovan bailey vs michael johnson match race where one quits because they are losing and the other jogs to victory have jelimo, defar and dibaba in with the top 10 for 1500 meter specialist, now that would be a fun race.

i'm not convinced of jelimos potential over 1500 yet she's only just moved up from 400 !!! i know she's strong but it takes some serious endurance to run 3.55. it's like expecting kratochvilova to run 3.55.

she's full of suprises thought so i wouldn't rule it out :-)

Still, it will be exciting to see what she can do in the mile - I wasn't planning on going to Brum but with two of my favourites competing (Jelimo and Dibaba), I might turn up after all.

[AthleticsInBritain]

I've long thought Defar and Dibaba capable of something along the lines of 3:55, especially if you consider their 14:11 and 14:12 5k PBs, and take into consideration the last lap speed they demonstrate.

The only possible points of comparison to other women are the Chinese times, in particular Wang Yunxia who has a 3:51.92 PB according to Pela, or more realistically Tatyana Kazankina, who ran 3:52.47 as well as an 8:22.62 for 3k. And both Defar, Dibaba (and possibly to some extent Cheruiyot) almost certainly have a faster than 8:22 3k in them. Although Kazankina had a 1:54.9 800m under her belt. But certainly 3:57 or better has to be a possibility.

[mump boy]

Re: Should Defar Run 1500 or 10K in Berlin Next Year?

jelimo will run a mile on february 21st, what would be even better is in july or august have jelimo run a 1500 a distance she would be moving up to and have defar and dibaba move down to the 1500 for that race, to make it even better have a rabbit bringing them on a sub 3:55 pace and just to make sure we dont get a donovan bailey vs michael johnson match race where one quits because they are losing and the other jogs to victory have jelimo, defar and dibaba in with the top 10 for 1500 meter specialist, now that would be a fun race.

i'm not convinced of jelimos potential over 1500 yet she's only just moved up from 400 !!! i know she's strong but it takes some serious endurance to run 3.55. it's like expecting kratochvilova to run 3.55.

she's full of suprises thought so i wouldn't rule it out :-)

Kratochvilova was ranked # 6 in 1981 T&FN 100 with 11.09 & defeated Koch in 1983 European Cup 200, so she was a sprinter who moved up to 800. Jelimo was world ranked in nothing before 2008.

i know perfectly well who kratochvilova is and her accomplishments. jelimo was 17 before 2008 so i woudn't expect her to be world ranked anywhere where kratochvilova was 30 in 1981 so had a long history of sprinting behind her before she moved up. as far as i know jelimo was a 400m runner untill this year and none of us know how she will hold up over 1500 so it's a bit premature to get over excited. at the moment from what we know of her she has more in common with kratochvilova (having moved up from 400) than say kazankina who was a distance runner.

i think it is very possible that jelimo will run a great 1500 but let'snot get carried away. maria mutola is an amazing 800 runner with great strength but her 1500 best remained at 4:01.50 which is respectable but hardly earth shattering. it may be that jelimo is a speed based 800 runner rather than an endurance one. we will soon find out :-)

[Gleason]

Re: Should Defar Run 1500 or 10K in Berlin Next Year?

[quote=mump boy]

jelimo will run a mile on february 21st, what would be even better is in july or august have jelimo run a 1500 a distance she would be moving up to and have defar and dibaba move down to the 1500 for that race, to make it even better have a rabbit bringing them on a sub 3:55 pace and just to make sure we dont get a donovan bailey vs michael johnson match race where one quits because they are losing and the other jogs to victory have jelimo, defar and dibaba in with the top 10 for 1500 meter specialist, now that would be a fun race.

i'm not convinced of jelimos potential over 1500 yet she's only just moved up from 400 !!! i know she's strong but it takes some serious endurance to run 3.55. it's like expecting kratochvilova to run 3.55.

she's full of suprises thought so i wouldn't rule it out :-)

Kratochvilova was ranked # 6 in 1981 T&FN 100 with 11.09 & defeated Koch in 1983 European Cup 200, so she was a sprinter who moved up to 800. Jelimo was world ranked in nothing before 2008.

i know perfectly well who kratochvilova is and her accomplishments. jelimo was 17 before 2008 so i woudn't expect her to be world ranked anywhere where kratochvilova was 30 in 1981 so had a long history of sprinting behind her before she moved up. as far as i know jelimo was a 400m runner untill this year and none of us know how she will hold up over 1500 so it's a bit premature to get over excited. at the moment from what we know of her she has more in common with kratochvilova (having moved up from 400) than say kazankina who was a distance runner.

i think it is very possible that jelimo will run a great 1500 but let'snot get carried away. maria mutola is an amazing 800 runner with great strength but her 1500 best remained at 4:01.50 which is respectable but hardly earth shattering. it may be that jelimo is a speed based 800 runner rather than an endurance one. we will soon find out :-)[/quote:e29hemiw]

I agree. Bring on 2009!

[eldrick]

And both Defar, Dibaba (and possibly to some extent Cheruiyot) almost certainly have a faster than 8:22 3k in them

you can take for granted that defar has <8'22 :

defar holds 2M wr at 8'58 which with standard 1.08 conversion gives

~ 8'18