cross country nationals - qualification for wccc

[az2004]

not to criticize rupp, but he did sit on the pace for the AR...

pre wouldn't have wanted it that way...

rupp is more fitted for 10k though, with fernandez being 5k short term...

to me, fernandez looks capable of becoming a top notch 5k runner, and given his recent mile speed, his overall future might be brighter than rupp...

if daba outkicks you twice, what is rupp gonna do with, dare we mention KB, excpet hope he mores on sooner or later

[Cyril]

Unfortunately, 3.56 doesn't stack up well against 13.00-13.10 guys over 8.000m of cross country racing. Fernandez will need to drop 40-50 seconds from his best 8.000m race to be in contention if the race is won in the 22's.

Off of the 3:56 (really unpressed) and his Nat. XC what do you suspect German is capable of for 5k? I would think 13:30 or very close. I don't know how many African Jrs are capable of 13:00 currently. I doubt more than a couple.

Absolutely. Not likely more than a few Africans in 13.00-13.10 air, however, the rest of the statement still applies: Fernandez will need to drop considerable amount of time if the race is won in the 22's. He has the potential to do it. Will he do it on a given day? Perhaps. Again, top-15.

Top 15 is a safe prediction. If he's healthy and trains well up to race day he may very well do much better. Again, we just don't yet know what he is really capable of.

With Rupp's fantastic 5k yesterday we can only imagine that if German, with 3:56 (unpressed) speed may ultimately be capable of.

BTW - that 3:56 is remarkable when you consider the type of runner German is. He isn't speedy (47-48) like Webb and Ryun. He is more like Lindgren, Rupp etc...so, the 3:56 (unpressed for a kid who just turned 18!) is really a run done on strength. Stunning!

[EPelle]

Unfortunately, 3.56 doesn't stack up well against 13.00-13.10 guys over 8.000m of cross country racing. Fernandez will need to drop 40-50 seconds from his best 8.000m race to be in contention if the race is won in the 22's.

Off of the 3:56 (really unpressed) and his Nat. XC what do you suspect German is capable of for 5k? I would think 13:30 or very close. I don't know how many African Jrs are capable of 13:00 currently. I doubt more than a couple.

Absolutely. Not likely more than a few Africans in 13.00-13.10 air, however, the rest of the statement still applies: Fernandez will need to drop considerable amount of time if the race is won in the 22's. He has the potential to do it. Will he do it on a given day? Perhaps. Again, top-15.

[bad hammy]

Yet, German has shown more strength than either Ryun or Webb. Even more the Lindgern, Rupp, Ritz, Pre...

My only concern about Fernandez is that he appears to be a bit injury prone, but he has great potential if he keeps the injuries at bay.

[bad hammy]

GF born Nov. 2, 1990 according to the folks at wiki.

[Cyril]

Unfortunately, 3.56 doesn't stack up well against 13.00-13.10 guys over 8.000m of cross country racing. Fernandez will need to drop 40-50 seconds from his best 8.000m race to be in contention if the race is won in the 22's.

Off of the 3:56 (really unpressed) and his Nat. XC what do you suspect German is capable of for 5k? I would think 13:30 or very close. I don't know how many African Jrs are capable of 13:00 currently. I doubt more than a couple.

Also, isn't Fernandez going to still be a Jr. next year for world xc?

German is moving very quickly into some very thin air. He is much faster than Rupp and stronger than Rupp at the same age. I really don't know any American who has shown such range at such a young age...except...well I won't go there.

this is g. fernandez's last year as a junior.
i think 13:30 is conservative, he can run faster than that indoors. if he runs stanford in may with good conditions he could run about 13:15.
i agree this kid is not just hype, i think he is a real legitimate prospect, best american distance junior runner since at least gerry lindgren and dare i say it maybe even jim ryun.

What is his birthdate? I know when he graduated last year he was still 17.

As for being the best Jr...I would agree. Ryun was a middle distance guy. like Webb. You can't really compare them to German. However, I think German is still as young as Webb when he ran his 3:53 and maybe Ryun when he went 3:55?

Yet, German has shown more strength than either Ryun or Webb. Even more the Lindgern, Rupp, Ritz, Pre...

This kid has serious range!

[doug091463]

Unfortunately, 3.56 doesn't stack up well against 13.00-13.10 guys over 8.000m of cross country racing. Fernandez will need to drop 40-50 seconds from his best 8.000m race to be in contention if the race is won in the 22's.

Off of the 3:56 (really unpressed) and his Nat. XC what do you suspect German is capable of for 5k? I would think 13:30 or very close. I don't know how many African Jrs are capable of 13:00 currently. I doubt more than a couple.

Also, isn't Fernandez going to still be a Jr. next year for world xc?

German is moving very quickly into some very thin air. He is much faster than Rupp and stronger than Rupp at the same age. I really don't know any American who has shown such range at such a young age...except...well I won't go there.

this is g. fernandez's last year as a junior.
i think 13:30 is conservative, he can run faster than that indoors. if he runs stanford in may with good conditions he could run about 13:15.
i agree this kid is not just hype, i think he is a real legitimate prospect, best american distance junior runner since at least gerry lindgren and dare i say it maybe even jim ryun.

[Cyril]

Unfortunately, 3.56 doesn't stack up well against 13.00-13.10 guys over 8.000m of cross country racing. Fernandez will need to drop 40-50 seconds from his best 8.000m race to be in contention if the race is won in the 22's.

Off of the 3:56 (really unpressed) and his Nat. XC what do you suspect German is capable of for 5k? I would think 13:30 or very close. I don't know how many African Jrs are capable of 13:00 currently. I doubt more than a couple.

Also, isn't Fernandez going to still be a Jr. next year for world xc?

German is moving very quickly into some very thin air. He is much faster than Rupp and stronger than Rupp at the same age. I really don't know any American who has shown such range at such a young age...except...well I won't go there.

[Cyril]

Considering Rupp was 20th, I think that Fernandez can be in the top 15. If he has a very good race he may break top 10. I still don't think we (or anyone) has a full idea of his capabilities.

As long as his body stays good (free of injury) it will be very exciting to watch this guy.

[KevinM]

i think g. fernandez is for real, with his 3:56.50 indoors in a non rabbitted race, i say he gets somewhere between 4th-8th.

I'm not sure that the lack of a designated rabbit is of much importance with regard to GF's 3:56.50, given the fact that he followed Dorian Ulrey's lead through 1320y or so.

[EPelle]

Unfortunately, 3.56 doesn't stack up well against 13.00-13.10 guys over 8.000m of cross country racing. Fernandez will need to drop 40-50 seconds from his best 8.000m race to be in contention if the race is won in the 22's.

[doug091463]

i think g. fernandez is for real, with his 3:56.50 indoors in a non rabbitted race, i say he gets somewhere between 4th-8th.

[KevinM]

Even setting aside what German has done recently on the track, take note that he dispatched Derrick by :19, just a week after Derrick's 13:44 at Washington. Scary what this class of guys could accomplish, and what Fernandez is doing right now.

[EPelle]

Top-15. He was top-30 as a 14.22 cross country runner entering a year where he:d mile 4.01 and run 8.32 for two miles. He:s now broken 24.00 on three or four occasions this year and has that 3.56 under his belt.

[Cyril]

It is good to see Meb running well.

It will also be very interesting to see how German does at Worlds.

Anyone care to take a guess?