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Just a follow-up to the Task Force 30 thread of a couple of weeks ago.
The main purpose of Task Force 30 (as I understand it) is to try to put procedures and protocols in place which would lead to the US achieving as many as 30 medals at London in 2012. Since we got 23 (17.3% of the available medals) at Beijing I was curious where people thought these additional 7 medals might come from.
If you look at the men’s events (24) there are at least 11 (1500, SC, 5k, 10k, Mar, 2 walks, TJ, Discus, Hammer and Jav) in which we are likely not to be any more successful at garnering medals (0) than we were in Beijing. In 7 events (100, 200, 400 sweep, 110H, 400H sweep, 4x1 Relay and Dec) it will be extremely difficult to do any better since there are only 19 medals available in these events and they already produced 13 of the 14 medals which the men captured. Add to that the fact that in 9 of the men’s events we did not even have a finalist (skewed somewhat by the fact that there was no qualifying in the Marathon and 10K). This leaves only the 800, 4x1 Relay, HJ, LJ, and PV, with a total of only 13 available medals as legitimate medal possibilities.
On the women’s side (23 events) there are at least 13 events (800, 1500, SC, 5K 10K, Mar, walk, HJ, TJ, SP, Discus, Hammer and Jav) in which we are not likely to do any better (even though we medaled in both the discus and the 10k, it is hard to argue that we will be that successful in 2012). On the women’s side we had no finalists in 6 events. That leaves only the 100, 200, 400, 100 hurdles, 400 hurdles, 4x1 relay, PV and Heptathlon. These events produced 7 of the 9 medals the women won.
If you disregard the women’s discus and 10K, the US would need 9 additional medals to reach 30. Three are likely to come in the two 4x1 relays (could lightening strike like 10 times in the same event?) and the men’s shot (the women's 100H could be a better than even possibility). And this presupposes that the men will still sweep the 400 and 400H in London. Seems to me that anything else is uncertain at best.
Between the men and women then, there are 28 medal possibilities left and we would need 9 (or 32 %), and that assumes that we will hold on to all of the medals we got in Beijing (excluding the aforementioned women's discus and 10K).
Of course I realize that the purpose of the changes which Task Force 30 recommended is to improve our chances, and stranger things have happened, but that is not the way to bet.
The main purpose of Task Force 30 (as I understand it) is to try to put procedures and protocols in place which would lead to the US achieving as many as 30 medals at London in 2012. Since we got 23 (17.3% of the available medals) at Beijing I was curious where people thought these additional 7 medals might come from.
If you look at the men’s events (24) there are at least 11 (1500, SC, 5k, 10k, Mar, 2 walks, TJ, Discus, Hammer and Jav) in which we are likely not to be any more successful at garnering medals (0) than we were in Beijing. In 7 events (100, 200, 400 sweep, 110H, 400H sweep, 4x1 Relay and Dec) it will be extremely difficult to do any better since there are only 19 medals available in these events and they already produced 13 of the 14 medals which the men captured. Add to that the fact that in 9 of the men’s events we did not even have a finalist (skewed somewhat by the fact that there was no qualifying in the Marathon and 10K). This leaves only the 800, 4x1 Relay, HJ, LJ, and PV, with a total of only 13 available medals as legitimate medal possibilities.
On the women’s side (23 events) there are at least 13 events (800, 1500, SC, 5K 10K, Mar, walk, HJ, TJ, SP, Discus, Hammer and Jav) in which we are not likely to do any better (even though we medaled in both the discus and the 10k, it is hard to argue that we will be that successful in 2012). On the women’s side we had no finalists in 6 events. That leaves only the 100, 200, 400, 100 hurdles, 400 hurdles, 4x1 relay, PV and Heptathlon. These events produced 7 of the 9 medals the women won.
If you disregard the women’s discus and 10K, the US would need 9 additional medals to reach 30. Three are likely to come in the two 4x1 relays (could lightening strike like 10 times in the same event?) and the men’s shot (the women's 100H could be a better than even possibility). And this presupposes that the men will still sweep the 400 and 400H in London. Seems to me that anything else is uncertain at best.
Between the men and women then, there are 28 medal possibilities left and we would need 9 (or 32 %), and that assumes that we will hold on to all of the medals we got in Beijing (excluding the aforementioned women's discus and 10K).
Of course I realize that the purpose of the changes which Task Force 30 recommended is to improve our chances, and stranger things have happened, but that is not the way to bet.
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