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  • Dream Breakthroughs

    One of our biggest daily newspapers, Aftonbladet, has published an article on our biggest T/F stars, and their chances of breaking through stated heights/distances barriers in their events. Your thoughts on our athletes chances? (Translations in parentheses)

    Carolina Klüft, längdhopp (LONG JUMP)

    Drömgräns: 7,00. Personligt rekord: 6,86. Fattas: 14 cm.

    Kommentar: Carro är redan en sjumetershoppare i rätt tävling och under rätt förhållanden. Är starkare och snabbare än i fjol. Carro är i så grym form att hon kan hoppa sju meter redan i Globen på torsdag.
    Chans att lyckas i år: 90 procent.

    (Carolina can jump 7,00m in the right competition under the right circumstances. She is stronger and faster than last year. Carolina is in so fine form that she can already jump 7,00m today at Globen.)

    Stefan Holm, höjdhopp (HIGH JUMP)

    Drömgräns: 2,40. Personligt rekord: 2,36. Fattas: 4 cm.

    Kommentar: Det är nära nu för Stefan Holm. Har lagt upp ribban på 2,40 i sina två senaste tävlingar och i Arnstadt i lördags var det inte långt borta. Det är bara en tidsfråga innan han är där. Chans att lyckas i år: 75 procent.

    (It is nearer now for Stefan Holm. Has raised the bar to 2,40m in his last two meets, and in Arnstadt on Saturday he wasn t far back. It is only a time question before he is there.)

    Kajsa Bergqvist, höjdhopp (HIGH JUMP)

    Drömgräns: 2,10. Personligt rekord: 2,06. Fattas: 4 cm.

    Kommentar: Kajsa var nära 2,10 i Eberstadt redan i somras. I den perfekta tävlingen - och om hon får vara frisk - har hon alla möjligheter att sätta världsrekord. Klart tuffast av svenskarnas drömgränser. Chans att lyckas i år: 20 procent.

    (Kajsa was near 2,10m in Eberstadt last summer. In the perfect meet - and if she is healthy - she has every possibility to set the world record. Clearly the toughest of the Swedish athletes dream barriers.)

    Patrik Kristiansson, stavhopp (POLE VAULT)

    Drömgräns: 6,00. Personligt rekord: 5,85. Fattas: 15 cm.

    Kommentar: Patrik Kristiansson har hoppat på sex meter vid fyra tillfällen, men aldrig varit riktigt nära. Nu har han arbetsro efter VM-bronset i Paris och han har talangen att hoppa en bit över sex meter. Chans att lyckas i år: 15 procent.

    (Patrik Kristiansson has jumped 6,00m four times, but has never been really close. Now he has the work row after his bronze at the WC in Paric and has the talent to jump a bit over 6,00m.)

    Oscar Janson, stavhopp (POLE VAULT)

    Drömgräns: 6,00. Personligt rekord: 5,86. Fattas: 14 cm.

    Kommentar: Oscar skrällde med sitt svenska rekord i fjol somras, men sedan dess har det varit månader av skadeelände. Tränarna tror på sex meter, men Oscar får nog koncentrera sig på att bli helt återställd först. Chans att lyckas i år: 5 procent.

    (Oscar was sensational with his Swedish record last summer, but is has been months of injuries since then. The coaches believe in 6,00m, but Oscar should concentrate himself on being completely recovered first.)

    Christian Olsson, Tresteg (TRIPLE JUMP)

    Drömgräns: 18,00. Personligt rekord: 17,80. Fattas: 20 cm.

    Kommentar: Christian Olsson hade förhoppningar att nå 18 meter redan i fjol. Då nådde han 17,77 utomhus. Han har hoppat bättre inne, där hans 17,80 motsvarar en bit över 18 meter med maximal vind i ryggen. Det kommer att bli 18 meter i år - inget snack om saken. Chans att lyckas i år: 90 procent.

    (Christian Olsson already had hopes of reaching 18,00m last year. Then he reached 17,77m outdoors. He has jumped better indoors, where his 17,80m is the equivalent of 18,00m with maximum wind at his back. There will be an 18,00m jump this year - no question about it.)

  • #2
    Re: Dream Breakthroughs

    i did a little playing around with some figures a while back & came up with some interesting conclusions:

    if carro progresses over the years in the LJ as hoped for,she would eventually reach ~ 7.30
    (it was an extrapolation of her current rate of progress in the LJ within heptathlon competitions - could you kindly provide her progression in LJ PB over the past few years as i want to revise this figure)

    olly's 17.80i, i made nearer the equivalent of ~ 18.10 outside with a +2m/s wind.
    also his 16.95i of a half-size runway would indicate that if he could maintain the same technique over the full runway,that he is capable of jumping in excess of 18.50 !

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Dream Breakthroughs

      2003 Outdoors
      6.86 Carolina Klüft 83 Växjö Bydgoszcz, POL 19.7

      2003 Indoors
      6.61 Carolina Klüft 83 Växjö Birmingham, GBR 14.3

      2002 Outdoors
      6.48 Carolina Klüft 83 Växjö Gävle 18.8

      2002 Indoors
      6.35 Carolina Klüft 83 Växjö Mustasaari, FIN 9.2

      2001 Outdoors
      6.26 Carolina Klüft 83 Växjö Växjö 26.8

      2000 Outdoors
      6.23 Carolina Klüft 83 Växjö Geithus, NOR 16.7

      2000 Indoors
      6.07 Carolina Klüft 83 Växjö Eskilstuna 12.2

      1999 Outdoors
      6.13 Carolina Klüft 83 Växjö Härnösand 15.8

      1999 Indoors
      5.79 Carolina Klüft 83 Växjö Eskilstuna 6.3

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Dream Breakthroughs

        >i did a little playing around with some figures a while back & came up with
        >some interesting conclusions:

        if carro progresses over the years in the LJ
        >as hoped for,she would eventually reach ~ 7.30
        (it was an extrapolation of
        >her current rate of progress in the LJ within heptathlon competitions - could
        >you kindly provide her progression in LJ PB over the past few years as i want
        >to revise this figure)

        Interesting analysis. I wish there were some more data points though, as I only had the 9 data points to work with. Still, I reached almost the same conclusion as you did, charting a progression to 7.35m; a regression with Rsquared of 0.86 (pretty accurate). Still, more data points would definitely add more credence to this forecast.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Dream Breakthroughs

          The only problem with any such progression is knowing when to stop (which we never have any way of knowing). She may be just about as likely to never PR again as she is to project all the way to 8.00.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Dream Breakthroughs

            >The only problem with any such progression is knowing when to stop (which we
            >never have any way of knowing). She may be just about as likely to never PR
            >again as she is to project all the way to 8.00.

            it's only some fun.

            i didn't use a rigid mathematical approach (like palladium),but you take a few PB's starting with her breakthru one (i think it's 6.23) & work out the increases in each PB. then re-arrange these increases in decreasing order & you get a curve which will reach an asymptote.Use curve-modelling software to get the best curve of fit (obviously it's some exponential/modified power curve) & find it's asymptote. this way you do not have to "know when to stop" as you will reach a limit. i'll try it for the listed data when i get some time

            anyway here's one from earlier:

            http://www.iaaf.org/community/forums/Li ... icID=15642

            if someone has got pappas' progression in the decathlon & progression in individual events in decathlon,i would like to try & give that a go sometime

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Dream Breakthroughs

              Interesting analysis. I
              >wish there were some more data points though, as I only had the 9 data points
              >to work with. Still, I reached almost the same conclusion as you did, charting
              >a progression to 7.35m; a regression with Rsquared of 0.86 (pretty accurate).
              >Still, more data points would definitely add more credence to this
              >forecast.

              An R^2 value of 0.86 is not very accurate actually. Also, it is not at all reasonable to extrapolate marks in that way. Anything could happen from season to season. It's just as likely (probably more) that she'd only jump 6.80 again this year rather than 7.30.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Dream Breakthroughs

                >Interesting analysis. I
                >wish there were some more data points though, as I
                >only had the 9 data points
                >to work with. Still, I reached almost the same
                >conclusion as you did, charting
                >a progression to 7.35m; a regression with
                >Rsquared of 0.86 (pretty accurate).
                >Still, more data points would definitely
                >add more credence to this
                >forecast.

                An R^2 value of 0.86 is not very
                >accurate actually. Also, it is not at all reasonable to extrapolate marks in
                >that way. Anything could happen from season to season. It's just as likely
                >(probably more) that she'd only jump 6.80 again this year rather than
                >7.30.

                Having been at the federal reserve for the past few years, I'd have to disagree. This isn't textbook stuff; i.e., in the real world, an Rsquared beyond 0.8 is pretty decent. Having said that, you are absolutely correct that my projection takes nothing else into account. A really accurate projection would look at injury probability, number of track meets, chart progression of training... and the list goes on. As has already been mentioned though, this type of forecast is more for fun and speculation than anything else.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Dream Breakthroughs

                  here's a nice intro to R squared...

                  http://www.cmh.edu/stats/ask/rsquared.asp

                  work at the fed??

                  when are the rates goping up, before or after the election??

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Dream Breakthroughs

                    work at the
                    >fed??

                    when are the rates goping up, before or after the election??

                    If you've been following the hooplah, I'm sure you noticed the language change in Greenspan's speech yesterday. Having said all that, I just do commodity projections. They don't actually tell me anything... they don't really tell anyone anything. But at least I get to see what types of data they analyze before they make decisions.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Dream Breakthroughs

                      I noticed the language change...

                      heard greenspan say doing would get done with rates until the actual employment outlook improved.

                      I have an uncle who worked at the fed here in philadelphia, ran one of the departments,

                      he was at the fed for about 20 years, until he retired.

                      Comment

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