Predict Makau's debut time at Rotterdam

[joeltetreault]

The race organizers are calling for a 1:29 30k split at Rotterdam this Sunday (~2:05:10 mara pace). Makau has run under 60min for the half 7 times, including a PR of 58:52.

IAAF report:
http://iaaf.org/LRR09/news/newsid=50032.html

[doug091463]

2:03:40 for a new world record.

[Master Po]

I have been looking forward to Makau's marathon debut. Beyond his impressive half marathon resume, he is kind of an unknown quantity, but the company he is in among the top half marathon performers of course suggests great potential at the marathon. His frequency of sub 1 hr half marathons is noted above; in fact, his half marathon resume is more impressive even than that suggests. Using pela2's lists, if one looks at the sub-59:30 half marathon club, that includes just 15 athletes (37 performances). Of those 15 athletes, just 7 have run multiple sub-59:30 (actually, these 7 have each run at least 3 or more). It is an impressive group, most of whom also have impressive marathon credentials:

name (# of sub-59:30), half marathon PR, marathon PR, 10,000 PR
Makau (6) 58:52, ---- , ?
Wanjiru (4) 58:33, 2:05:24, 26:41
E. Cheruiyot (4) 59:05, 2:06:25, 27:29 (road)
Merga Ejigu (4) 59:15, 2:06:39, 27:02
Gebrselassie (3) 58:55, 2:03:59, 26:22
Tergat (3) 59:06, 2:04:59, 26:27
Tadese (3) 58:59, ----, 26:37

If all conditions are good, I would speculate in favor of something in the 2:05 range, under 2:05:49, which is the CR at Rotterdam.

[eldrick]

i remember amsterdam a few years ago when the had what seemed like a 1/2 dozen guys thru 30k in ~ 1"30 - awesome prospect at that moment

i think it ended up ~ 2"06 as guys peeled off & it got a little tactical

they are aiming for 2"05'10 pace at 30k & these guys are better than in amsterdam

i'll go with 2"04 mid/high

[joeltetreault]

The weather is looking good for Rotterdam on Sunday - 45 deg at 9AM rising to 52 at noon (though the athletes will be finished by then). I'll be a little more cautious and say Makau will run 2:05:40.

What is the fastest marathon debut? Is it Geb's 2:06:35 from London still?

[eldrick]

don't forget it's the "legendary" fast course

dinsamo set a wr there in '80s which lasted ~ 10y

it used to be always my "go to" course when hoping to see a wr on tv - until they coudn't get the big bucks for top guys

[doug091463]

i think evans rutto 2:05:50 is the fastest marathon debut.

[DecFan]

I'll say 2:05:10.

[Dutra]

2:06:47

[eldrick]

some links to race shoud appear here tomorrow

http://www.myp2p.eu/broadcast.php?match ... art=sports

[eldrick]

link is up but it's not showing race yet

[EPelle]

Why not use a REAL site? Cheers.

http://www.universalsports.com/mediaPla ... m_id=23000

[eldrick]

link is to same site

they are just showing a gal running in a nike ad

[EPelle]

After Kara Goucher's NIKE ad, the marathon rolls on. 42.16 into the race as I view it now (+9,8C; 80%)

[EPelle]

Looks like a 1.02.32-ish at the half mark for the leaders -- a group of 10 in contention; Makau running in seventh or so in a bunched group through that mark.

========================================

30km split: ca 1.28.52, group of five
35km split: ca 1.43.13, group of two, third athlete getting gapped