Predict the winner of the Boston Marathon (Women)

[joeltetreault]

Startlists here:

http://baa.org/2009/cf/Public/EntryListsElite.cfm


Bib Name Qualifying
Time M/F Age City State Country Ctz
18-39 Age Group Female
F14 Alemu, Elfenesh 2:24:29 F 33 Addis Ababa ETH ETH
F3 Bekele, Bezunesh 2:23:09 F 26 Addis Ababa ETH ETH
F10 Deriba, Shuru 2:28:26 F 23 Bekoji ETH ETH
F11 Dryer, Elva 2:31:48 F 37 Gunnison CO USA USA
F8 Goucher, Kara 2:25:53 F 30 Portland OR USA USA
F6 Grigoryeva, Lidiya 2:25:10 F 35 Cheboksary RUS RUS
F7 Habtamu, Atsede 2:25:17 F 21 Addis Ababa ETH ETH
F5 Kirop, Helena 2:25:01 F 32 Kapenguria KEN KEN
F4 Kosgei, Salina 2:23:22 F 32 El Marakwet KEN KEN
F9 Timbilili, Alice 2:26:45 F 26 Moiben KEN KEN
F1 Tune, Dire 2:24:40 F 23 Addis Ababa ETH ETH
F12 Zekiros, Adanech 2:27:32 F 27 Tigray ETH ETH

[nevetsllim]

Hopefully Salina Kosgei - but a Tune - Goucher - Kosgei finish is most probable...

It's really interesting to see how so many young world class Ethiopian
(more so than Kenyans) Marathon runners there are. Tune ran at the World Champs back in 2005 so it's not rare to see them starting the marathon careers at 18-19, whilst very few European/American runners move to the marathon until late 20s/early 30s.

[doug091463]

also if you look at the ethiopian women the last couple of years last year they had 13 girls under 2:30 up from their previous best of 7, this year they already have 16 under 2:30 and they could possibly have over 20 girls under 2:30 by this monday, with boston , vienna and turin and more.

japan has the record for most women under 2:30 in a year with 19 each in 2001 and 2002.

also at the beginning of the year the all time womens marathon top 100 was
1. japan 20 women in the top 100
2, china 16
3. russia and kenya 11 each
4. ethiopia 9

as of today
1. japan 20
2. china 16
3. ethiopia 13
4. russia 11
5. kenya 10

2:30 or even 2:25 wont win many big races and radcliffes 2:15 is nowhere in sight, but this is significant improvement, maybe in 10 years almost all of the good women marathoners like the men may be african.

[CoachTief]

It would be cool to see an American win.

[LopenUupunut]

Hopefully Salina Kosgei - but a Tune - Goucher - Kosgei finish is most probable...

Will we count that as nearly right or exactly right?

[joeltetreault]

Hopefully Salina Kosgei - but a Tune - Goucher - Kosgei finish is most probable...

Will we count that as nearly right or exactly right?

Who picked Kosgei in the poll?

[EPelle]

It would be cool to see an American win.

You'll have to wait. Two third place finishes by your athletes was cool to watch, however.

[nevetsllim]

Hopefully Salina Kosgei - but a Tune - Goucher - Kosgei finish is most probable...

Will we count that as nearly right or exactly right?

Who picked Kosgei in the poll?

Me!

[502CD]

It would be cool to see an American win.

You'll have to wait. Two third place finishes by your athletes was cool to watch, however.

What a finish for the women. Tune collapsed after crossing the line.

[tandfman]

I wonder what a fit Deena K would have done in that race.

[LopenUupunut]

Who picked Kosgei in the poll?

Me!

And two others now...

[nevetsllim]

Who picked Kosgei in the poll?

Me!

And two others now...

It was definitely me! Although I thought Tune would win...

[joeltetreault]

Who picked Kosgei in the poll?

Me!

And two others now...

It was definitely me! Although I thought Tune would win...

I went with Tune/Merga, just off by one second. Good call nevetsllim. And a note to self - make sure to have the poll close on race day